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NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) — chart, structure and Closelooknet read

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The desk on NVDA

What this diary said about NVIDIA Corporation, what it holds and what would change its view — in its own words, dated. Investment diary, not advice.

What we said

What we hold

BookPositionSinceResult
AI Buildout 100.14 shares · average entry $182.56 — +23.3%
Hypergrowth 100.14 shares · average entry $182.56 — +23.3%
Derivatives long 1 call · $160 strike · 17 Dec 2027 · bought at $85.07, now $81.94 — −3.7%
Derivatives short 1 call · $320 strike · 17 Dec 2027 · sold at $19.36, now $15.50 — +19.9%
AI Cycle 2030 (wikifolio) ↗ 13 shares · average entry €170.94 — —
Closelooknet (wikifolio) ↗ 50 shares · average entry €178.00 — —

Model books as of 25 Sept 2026; wikifolio positions from the official wikifolio data, entries in euros. Results are unrealised, before any exit. A record of what the diary does, not a recommendation to do the same.

Our record on NVDA

Every scored call, pick and trade this diary has made on NVIDIA Corporation, with the outcome where it is known.

Charts from the desk on NVDA

The charts this diary drew or picked on NVIDIA Corporation, as published — each dated and linked to the piece that explains it.

Signals for this name

Every Closelooknet reading that exists for NVDA, from the same nightly bakes the boards use. Research diary readings, not advice.

Versus its index Rubin Build-Out 100 · Agentic Winners 40 — the name, its sleeve and the index over day, week and month

Versus its index

The name against its Closelooknet index and its own sleeve — equal-weight, nightly closes.

Rubin Build-Out 100 · as of 2026-09-25

DayWeekMonth3 months
NVDA+0.2%+1.3%+7.3%+16.9%
Architects (Chip Design)+0.9%+9.9%+18.5%—
Rubin Build-Out 100+1.7%+5.0%+4.1%—

Against the index: 3.7 pts behind on the week, 3.2 pts ahead on the month; against its Architects (Chip Design) sleeve 11.2 pts behind on the month.

Agentic Winners 40 · as of 2026-09-25

DayWeekMonth3 months
NVDA+0.2%+1.3%+7.3%+16.9%
Megacap Gateway+0.4%+3.1%+7.6%—
Agentic Winners 40−0.7%−0.1%−5.7%—

Against the index: 1.4 pts ahead on the week, 13.0 pts ahead on the month; against its Megacap Gateway sleeve 0.3 pts behind on the month.

Returns from the index workers’ nightly closes; equal-weight sleeves. A relative reading from the research diary, not advice.

Mentioned on Closelooknet 65 pieces · newest: Morning 10, “Memory — Samsung and SK Hynix drop 4% as Seoul reopens, storage follows; Nasdaq futures slip” (2026-09-28)

Mentioned on Closelooknet

Where NVDA appears in the diary — 65 pieces, newest first. Every link is our own writing.

Go deeper

Long reads

101 and glossary

Dailies

Weather around the name 4 macro readings: Money Temperature, Factor regime, Sector × region …

The weather around this name

Macro readings that apply by membership — the regime, the factor tape, the sector cell, the funding backdrop.

  • Money Temperature Composite 62/100 · S&P 500 fund at 67, bullish alignedEight instruments scored on position, momentum, volume, volatility and fragility — the regime every name trades inside. Temperature lab → 2026-09-25
  • Factor regime Momentum leading — risk appetite buildingMomentum against low volatility (SPMO / SPLV): above its 50-day trend, 99th percentile of the window, +8.4% over 20 sessions. Factor regime → 2026-09-25
  • Sector × region Technology in US: +3.6% week · +7.5% month · +8.5% quarter · +40.3% yearThe Sector Engine cell this name lives in, from XLK.US; the 11 × 4 matrix shows where its sector is being bought and where it is being sold. Sector Engine → 2026-09-27
  • Sovereign pressure Index 0.61 · up 0.29 over 21 sessionsG7 long-end yields, 10s30s and the slope — the funding weather for every balance sheet on this site. Sovereign pressure → 2026-09-25
How it trades on rate days beta 0.44 to TLT · on the worst bond days it fell more than the market

How it trades on rate days

How NVDA has moved when long-dated Treasury yields rise — measured against TLT, the 20+ year Treasury fund.

  • Beta to long bonds, 1 year 0.44 — shows only a loose link to bond moves for every 1% move in TLT (20+ year Treasuries), NVIDIA Corporation moved 0.44% on average · correlation 0.11 · higher than 45% of US names
  • Beta, last 3 months 0.73 more rate-sensitive lately than over the year
  • On the 10 worst bond days −1.48% on average against −0.74% for the S&P 500 the 10 sessions of the past year in which TLT fell most, i.e. long yields rose most
  • Latest of those days −0.41% TLT −1.29% that day 2026-09-24

Daily total returns from the adjusted price series; a TLT down day is a day long yields rose. Beta = the average move of the name for a 1% move in TLT. Past sensitivity, not a forecast. An investment diary, not a recommendation.

Who it is priced against AI accelerators and merchant silicon · 6 names with week and year-to-date

Peer group

AI accelerators and merchant silicon

Curated competitor set — who the market prices this name against, not just who shares its sector.

Compared against NVDA on the nightly bakes; the Peers tab ranks the cohort on the Closelooknet scores where it exists.

Company snapshot — NVIDIA Corporation

NVDA in five paragraphs: what it makes and sells, where it sits in the Closelooknet stack, who it is priced against, why we track it, what we watch. Research diary, not advice.

What it does
Nvidia designs the accelerated-computing platform on which most AI systems are trained and run: data-centre GPUs and the networking that links them into clusters, sold together with its CUDA software stack of libraries, frameworks and development tools. Its GeForce cards serve gaming and PCs, its RTX products professional visualisation, and its automotive platforms driver assistance and autonomous vehicles. The company reports two segments, Compute & Networking and Graphics, across four markets: Data Center, Gaming, Professional Visualization and Automotive. It is fabless — it designs the chips and buys manufacturing, advanced packaging and high-bandwidth memory from partners.
Where it sits in the stack
In Rubin, our build-out index, Nvidia sits in Layer 1, Architects (Chip Design): the design house that defines what the rest of the stack has to deliver. Every layer below it in the index is a constraint on its volumes — foundry capacity, lithography, advanced packaging, HBM memory, substrates, power and cooling — and when the sellers of compute are repriced, this is the name the repricing starts from.
Who it is priced against
The market prices it against the other merchant-silicon architects, AMD and Broadcom first, then Marvell and Arm on the design side, with the hyperscalers’ own chip programmes as the customer that could become the competitor.
Why Closelooknet tracks it
It is a Rubin constituent and a Nasdaq-100 and Dow name, carries a Closelooknet company score, and is the subject of our NVIDIA 2030 dossier; the dailies return to it on every day the AI trade moves.
What the diary watches
Whether data-centre orders keep converting on the schedule the capex plans imply, and whether the premium the market pays for scarce compute holds when the discount rate rises.

NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) trades on US exchanges, classified under Technology, and sits in Layer 1 of the build-out stack. Constituent of Rubin Build-Out 100.

The Closelooknet company score reads 66/100 composite (momentum 77, quality 94, valuation 35) across 7 modules — the full breakdown, chart structure and analog history load live above.

Written by the Closelooknet desk, 2026-09-17. Descriptive, refreshed with the registry; corrections welcome via the imprint. closelook.net is an investment research diary — market structure, index membership and scores are our own readings, not investment advice. Related: NVDA news on the tape · index compare · sector dispersion · scanner.

The Street on this name 14 analyst actions on the wire · latest: initiation by RBC Capital, 2026-09-11 · last print 2026-08-26

The Street on this name

Analyst actions and the latest print for NVDA from the Closelooknet wires — third-party opinions on the record, not our readings.

  • Initiation RBC Capital — at Outperform Initiated to Outperform from Outperform 2026-09-11
  • Downgrade Citigroup — Buy → Cautious Downgraded to Cautious from Buy 2026-09-11
  • Downgrade Morgan Stanley — Outperform → Underweight Downgraded to Underweight from Outperform 2026-09-11
  • Latest print EPS 2.22 against 2.09 expected — a +6.2% beat 2026-08-26

14 actions on the analyst wire since 2026-08-13: 1 upgrade, 6 downgrades, 5 initiations, 2 target changes. Analyst wire → · Earnings wire →

Dividends and capital return trailing yield 0.22%, semi-annual · buybacks 40.1 bn USD in FY2026

Dividends and capital return

What NVDA pays out and buys back — distributions read from the price series, money terms from the filings.

  • Trailing 12 months 0.50 USD per share · a 0.22% yield on the 2026-09-25 close 2 distributions, paid twice a year 2026-09-25
  • Last distribution 0.25 USD per share as the price series records it, within days of the ex-date 2026-09-10
  • By calendar year 2026: 0.50 USD to date first distribution recorded in the three-year window: 2026-06-04
  • Dividends paid, FY2026 974 m USD 7% of earnings
  • Buybacks, FY2026 40.1 bn USD 0.7% of today's market value
  • Share count −1.2% in FY2026 6.39 bn USD of stock-based compensation in the year
  • Capital returned 41.1 bn USD · 42% of free cash flow dividends and buybacks together, against the year’s free cash flow

Per-share amounts are derived from the adjusted price series in the listing currency, so dates sit within days of the ex-date; filing figures come from the fundamentals feed for the last reported fiscal year. An investment diary, not a recommendation.

FAQ · from the current data · as of 2026-09-26

Quick answers

What is NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA)?

NVIDIA Corporation trades as NVDA on the US exchange (US) and is classified under Technology in the Closelooknet research universe, as of the registry build of 2026-09-26.

Is NVDA in a Closelooknet index?

Yes — NVIDIA Corporation is a constituent of Rubin Build-Out 100, as of 2026-09-26.

What is NVIDIA Corporation's Closelooknet composite score?

66 out of 100, with momentum 77, quality 94 and valuation 35 sub-scores, as of 2026-09-26. Scores are Closelooknet's own research readings, not ratings or investment advice.

What is NVIDIA Corporation's earnings print record?

Across the 11 prints Closelooknet covers, NVIDIA Corporation beat EPS estimates 11 times and revenue estimates 11 times; the three-day reactions split 3 up, 2 flat and 6 down (moves beyond ±3%), as of the 2026-08-26 card. The full print-record card carries the per-print history.

Where does NVDA trade against its moving averages?

Widest analyst gap: Near its high — yet the $345 consensus implies +53.7%. As of 2026-09-24 — a technical state from the nightly Closelooknet bake, not advice. The Technical tab carries the full row.

How is NVDA doing against its Closelooknet index?

Over the past month NVIDIA Corporation is +7.3% against +4.1% for the Rubin Build-Out 100 — 3.2 points ahead of its index, as of 2026-09-25. Its Architects (Chip Design) sleeve is +18.5% over the same month. The “Versus its index” table on this page carries the day, the week and the month for the name, its sleeve and the index.

How does NVIDIA Corporation trade when bond yields rise?

Over the past year NVIDIA Corporation had a beta of 0.44 to TLT, the long-dated Treasury fund — it shows only a loose link to bond moves, higher than 45% of US names. On the 10 sessions in which long bonds fell most it moved −1.48% on average, against −0.74% for the S&P 500. The "How it trades on rate days" block on this page carries the lines.

Where has Closelooknet written about NVIDIA Corporation?

NVIDIA Corporation appears in 65 Closelooknet pieces, most recently Morning 10: Memory — Samsung and SK Hynix drop 4% as Seoul reopens, storage follows; Nasdaq futures slip (2026-09-28); Midday 10: Megacaps — Microsoft jumps 3.6%, Meta gives back 3.7%; oil sinks 4% on Iran-deal talk, the 30-year at 5.49% (2026-09-25); Morning 10: Rates — the 30-year hits its highest since 2004; Oracle and Arm sold, Meta and Intel bought, Nasdaq ends flat (2026-09-25). What Closelooknet said most recently: Nvidia rose only 1.26% and Broadcom fell 1.34%. (Morning 10, 2026-09-28). The "Mentioned on Closelooknet" block on this page lists the long reads, the reference entries and the dailies that name it.

Does Closelooknet hold NVIDIA Corporation?

Yes — AI Buildout: 100.14 shares · average entry $182.56, +23.3% unrealised; Hypergrowth: 100.14 shares · average entry $182.56, +23.3% unrealised; Derivatives: long 1 call · $160 strike · 17 Dec 2027 · bought at $85.07, now $81.94, -3.7% unrealised; Derivatives: short 1 call · $320 strike · 17 Dec 2027 · sold at $19.36, now $15.50, +19.9% unrealised; AI Cycle 2030 (wikifolio): 13 shares · average entry €170.94; Closelooknet (wikifolio): 50 shares · average entry €178.00. A record of what the diary does, not a recommendation to do the same.

What does NVIDIA Corporation do?

Nvidia designs the accelerated-computing platform on which most AI systems are trained and run: data-centre GPUs and the networking that links them into clusters, sold together with its CUDA software stack of libraries, frameworks and development tools. Its GeForce cards serve gaming and PCs, its RTX products professional visualisation, and its automotive platforms driver assistance and autonomous vehicles. The company reports two segments, Compute & Networking and Graphics, across four markets: Data Center, Gaming, Professional Visualization and Automotive. The market prices it against the other merchant-silicon architects, AMD and Broadcom first, then Marvell and Arm on the design side, with the hyperscalers’ own chip programmes as the customer that could become the competitor.

Where does NVIDIA Corporation sit in the AI build-out?

In Rubin, our build-out index, Nvidia sits in Layer 1, Architects (Chip Design): the design house that defines what the rest of the stack has to deliver. Every layer below it in the index is a constraint on its volumes — foundry capacity, lithography, advanced packaging, HBM memory, substrates, power and cooling — and when the sellers of compute are repriced, this is the name the repricing starts from. It is a Rubin constituent and a Nasdaq-100 and Dow name, carries a Closelooknet company score, and is the subject of our NVIDIA 2030 dossier; the dailies return to it on every day the AI trade moves.

Does NVIDIA Corporation pay a dividend?

NVIDIA Corporation has paid 0.50 USD per share over the last twelve months, paid twice a year, a trailing yield of 0.22% on the 2026-09-25 close; the last distribution recorded in the price series was 0.25 USD on 2026-09-10. In fiscal 2026 the company paid 974 m USD in dividends and bought back 40.1 bn USD of its own shares, 42% of that year’s free cash flow. The share count fell 1.2% over the fiscal year. The "Dividends and capital return" block on this page carries the lines.

What has Wall Street done on NVIDIA Corporation recently?

The most recent analyst action on NVIDIA Corporation on the Closelooknet wire is a initiation by RBC Capital on 2026-09-11 (at Outperform). 14 actions on the analyst wire since 2026-08-13: 1 upgrade, 6 downgrades, 5 initiations, 2 target changes. Its latest earnings print on the wire, 2026-08-26: EPS 2.22 against 2.09 expected — a +6.2% beat. Analyst actions are third-party opinions recorded by the wire, not Closelooknet readings. The “The Street on this name” block on this page lists the moves; the full feeds are the analyst wire and the earnings wire.

What does this page show?

A live price chart with SMA overlays and drawing tools for NVDA, performance metrics, index-membership context and the Closelooknet structure read — an investment research diary view, not investment advice.

Related in the Closelooknet universe

same Closelooknet index seat first, then Semiconductors. Scored names rank on their Closelooknet score; names without one rank on trend state — above or below their 50- and 200-day averages — never on a score they do not carry.