Agentic Winners 40
A bet on who captures AI's value — when it is genuinely unclear who wins. No clean public pure-plays exist; every name is a hybrid — a legacy business being disrupted, with agentic upside. Far less certain than the OPEX layer, so near-term performance may be soft by design. 40 names across 4 tiers, clean equal-weight. Performance plays no role — ABR is the gate.
Base 30 Dec 2025 = 1,000. Reconstituted from the original 25-name momentum sensor into a clean equal-weight tradable index; pre-launch is a backtest of the current 40 constituents. Updated daily after global close.
Sector performance
Segments & regions
Megacap Gateway
6 →The platforms agentic adoption flows through — Copilot, Gemini, AWS, on-device. They benefit largely regardless of who wins; gateway optionality, not pure-play conviction. NVDA is cross-index (Rubin); AAPL is a latent/laggard gateway, not a winner yet.
Control Plane
7 →The enterprise operating layer — ERP, CRM, HCM, workflow, orchestration. The Cannibalize-or-Die cohort: they must eat their own legacy revenue to win the agentic pivot. Mostly punished now; ABR splits the genuinely-pivoting from the legacy drag.
Application Leaders
16 →Vertical + horizontal software whose business outcome improves with AI — or gets eaten by it. Disrupted-may-emerge; the contrarian core. ABR separates the pivoting (Adobe, Intuit) from the roadkill (Chegg, Shutterstock — dropped as Terminal).
Endpoints
11 →The consumer + transaction frontier — commerce, payments, content, social. Where agentic action lands: shopping agents and payment agents need trusted endpoints to act through. The most consumer-weighted tier.
Two ways to read the book
Beyond the 4 tiers, AW40 cuts on segment and region. Enterprise (B2B): 27 · Consumer: 13. The consumer/transaction tier (Endpoints) is where agentic action lands — shopping agents and payment agents need trusted endpoints to act through.
Methodology — ABR is the gate, not performance
Winners holds names that may emerge but are punished today on AI-disruption fears — the bet is forward and contrarian, so trailing return is the wrong screen. The gate is ABR — the Agent Beneficiary Ratio, Closelook's 5-dimension AI-disruption scorer. Natural Position (benefits regardless) and Cannibalize-or-Die (incumbents genuinely pivoting) get in; Terminal names (agents replace them — e.g. Chegg, Shutterstock) are screened out. Every constituent carries its archetype so you see the legacy-vs-agentic transition, not a victory lap.
Clean equal-weight (1/N). ABR shown per name but informational — not a weighting input. Part of the three-index ecosystem: Rubin builds the factory · Agentic Infrastructure operates it · Agentic Winners use it. Read the thesis →
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FAQ · from the current data
Quick answers
What is Agentic Winners 40 (AW40)?
A Closelook functional equity index tracking who captures the business value of AI — 40 hybrid names across 4 tiers. Every name is a legacy business being disrupted with agentic upside; performance plays no role in construction — ABR (Agent Beneficiary Ratio) is the inclusion gate, and the index is a clean equal-weight (1/N).
How many constituents and tiers does AW40 have?
AW40 holds 40 constituents across 4 tiers: Megacap Gateway (6), Control Plane (7), Application Leaders (16), Endpoints (11).
What is the enterprise vs. consumer split in AW40?
Of the 40 constituents, 27 are classified enterprise (B2B) and 13 are classified consumer.
What does the ABR (Agent Beneficiary Ratio) gate mean?
ABR is Closelook's 5-dimension AI-disruption scorer used as the inclusion gate, not a weighting input. 23 constituents carry the Natural Position archetype (benefits largely regardless of who wins) and 17 carry Cannibalize-or-Die (incumbents genuinely pivoting); names scored Terminal — where agents replace the business — are screened out entirely. See Agentic Disruption 101 for the full thesis.
How is AW40 weighted and when was it based?
AW40 is a clean equal-weight (1/N) index, base 30 December 2025 = 1,000. It was reconstituted from the original 25-name momentum sensor into this 40-name tradable form; the period before reconstitution is a backtest of the current constituents.