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Markets

Where markets stand

S&P 500 765.72 +0.41% Nasdaq-100 713.44 +0.35% Dow 532.22 +0.89% Russell 2000 299.96 +0.77% Volatility 18.21 -1.25%

As of 06:17 UTC Indicative levels · not a trading feed

Systematic Market Intelligence

Money Temp 61 Rubin 1,881 40 dispersion cuts — signals today

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Daily Pulse cover — gold spheres and polyhedra over crystal blocks under a rising line: assets with no cash flows, priced on the denominator alone
PULSE Rates — Numerator, Denominator: Why the Path Matters More Than the Level The Federal Reserve raised rates on Wednesday and said more is coming; the 10-year Treasury yield closed at 5.006%, the first close above 5% of this cycle. Read →

Live channel STREAMING

Just happened on closelook

  1. PULSE Rates — Numerator, Denominator: Why the Path Matters More Than the Level
  2. PRINT RECORD Print Record — Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE): 10/11 EPS beats, 8/11 revenue, into the 2026-12-03 print
  3. PRINT RECORD Print Record — Broadcom (AVGO): 11/11 EPS beats, 10/11 revenue, into the 2026-12-10 print
  4. PRINT RECORD Print Record — Zscaler (ZS): 11/11 EPS beats, 11/11 revenue, into the 2026-11-24 print
  5. MORNING 10 The Morning 10 — The Federal Reserve raised rates on Wednesday, the first hike since 2023, and the market’s first job was to decide what kind of hike it was.
  6. MIDDAY 10 The Midday 10 — Two hours before the Federal Reserve decides, the market is trading the relief before the event.
  7. PULSE Rates — What a 5% 10-Year Costs: Yardeni’s Multiple, the Fed’s Dots and the AI Trade
  8. WIRE This week so far (through Sep 16): the S&P 500 fell -1.3% — with the average stock holding up better
  9. WIRE This week Agentic Ecosystem set the pace (+4.8%) while Rubin Build-Out fell (-4.2%)
  10. WIRE This week's money went to healthcare and media and telecom; utilities was sold
  11. ANALYST HSBC downgraded CPRT → $36 (+16.8%)
  12. ANALYST Evercore ISI raised PT on GOOGL → $450 (+31.2%)
  13. REPORT AI Economy — Three Futures for 2030, and the One the Model Leaves Out
  14. WEEKLY Cybersecurity — Sold on Price, Bought on Flow
  15. REPORT Google and RSI — The Loop Nobody Has Closed
  16. NEWSLETTER The Bill Came Before the Number
  17. COMMENTARY Micron Out, SK hynix In: Hypergrowth Rewrites Its Memory Line and Rolls a Call 120 Points Higher
  18. EARNINGS ORCL beat (+10.3%) — EPS $1.92 vs $1.74 est
  19. EARNINGS CPRT missed (-8.7%) — EPS $0.35 vs $0.38 est
  20. NEWSLETTER The Flow Said Software, the Price Said Silicon

See all the tape → Analyst wire → Earnings wire →

🌡 Money Temperature Transition 61/100 Rubin 1880.81 −5.31% W/W Agentic 1606.60 +3.81% W/W HALO 1005.06 −2.65% W/W All indices →

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The AI build-out, tracked like a book — five proprietary indices, a daily ten-point read, and calls that get scored in public.

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Top stories

The latest from the desk

Daily Pulse cover — gold spheres and polyhedra over crystal blocks under a rising line: assets with no cash flows, priced on the denominator alone
PULSE Rates — Numerator, Denominator: Why the Path Matters More Than the Level The Federal Reserve raised rates on Wednesday and said more is coming; the 10-year Treasury yield closed at 5.006%, the first close above 5% of this cycle. Read →
The Morning 10 — ten points to watch on the stock market, every morning
MORNING 10 The Morning 10
CPRT · · ·
Analyst HSBC downgraded CPRT → $36 (+16.8%)
Daily Pulse cover — classical columns and a golden sphere under light waves: policy day, the Fed decision and a 5% 10-year
PULSE Rates — What a 5% 10-Year Costs: Yardeni’s Multiple, the Fed’s Dots and the AI Trade
ORCL · · ·
Earnings ORCL beat (+10.3%) — EPS $1.92 vs $1.74 est

The Rhythm AUTO

Four reads, one system

The morning map, the midday tape, the day live, the week's one signal — the Morning 10 at 08:00 CET, the Midday 10 at 12:30 ET, the Daily Pulse through the trading day, the Weekly Signal on Sunday at 21:00 CET.

The Morning 10 — ten points to watch on the stock market, every morning.

Today Thu, Sep 17

The Federal Reserve raised rates on Wednesday, the first hike since 2023, and the market’s first job was to decide what kind of hike it was. We set the reading in advance: a step is priced in the front end and forgotten; a sequence shows up in the belly of the curve. The belly sold. The 5-year yield rose to 4.859%, the 10-year closed at 5.006% — the first close above 5.00% of this cycle; in October 2023 the 10-year touched 5.02% intraday and never closed there — and the 30-year fell to 5.349%. A curve that flattens on a hiking day is the bond market saying two things at once: it expects more, and it believes the more will work. Reuters’ headline caught the committee’s own framing, a hike ‘in search of a timelier drop in inflation, sees more tightening ahead’; CNBC counted one more this year. Equities did what a tape does when it has priced the step and not the sequence: it took the relief back. Two hours before the decision the S&P 500 ETF was $760.70 and above Thursday’s $757.83, the Nasdaq-100 fund $710.89 and above $708.69, the semiconductor ETF $508.60 and above $505. At the close the three were $754.05, $704.72 and $502.06 — under, on, under. The S&P ETF has now closed under its line twice, Tuesday by six cents and Wednesday by $3.78; the Nasdaq-100 fund sits on the 704 shelf that has held since the sort began; the chip ETF reclaimed and lost $505 inside one session. The equal-weight S&P was −0.8%, the Russell −0.4%, the VIX 17.7. Overnight the futures are +0.5% and the after-hours prints of the three ETFs are back at the lines, which is not a close and is not nothing. Inside the AI trade the day was two stories. The optics and interconnect names were bought as hard as anything has been bought this month — Lumentum +9.6% and Coherent +6.9% were the two largest gainers in the S&P 500, Credo +7.4%, Astera Labs +6.6%, Soitec +13.4% in Paris, Lenovo +8.3% in Hong Kong — and that bid took Rubin +1.9% to 1,880.81 on a day the chip ETF gained 0.6%. The equipment names were sold a third time, Applied Materials −1.4%, Lam −0.6%, KLA −0.4%, onsemi −9.0%, and the software names were marked on the discount rate: the Agentic Winners 40 −1.3%, Adobe −2.8%, Intuit −3.4%, Duolingo −3.7%, the software ETF −0.6%. Gold sold on the hike, −0.6% by the close and −1.2% overnight to $4,335, the dollar index 100.27, Brent $105.31 and under $107.63 a second day. Asia is mixed into the Bank of Japan on Friday: the Taiex +1.0% with TSMC +1.9%, the Nikkei and Kospi +0.2%, the Hang Seng −0.9%, the yen 155.8 after 156.2 overnight. Weekly claims and the Philadelphia Fed survey come at 12:30 UTC; Friday is the BoJ and the quarterly expiry. We hold the lines and let the close decide.

Read today’s 10 →
  1. 1The decision and the curve: the Fed hikes, first since 2023, ‘sees more tightening ahead’ (Reuters), one more this year (CNBC); the 5-year +3 bp to 4.859%, the 10-year closes 5.006% — first close above 5.00% of the cycle — the 30-year −1.5 bp to 5.349%; the curve flattens into the hike
  2. 2The equity close, the relief unwound: S&P 500 ETF $754.05 (−0.4%), second close under $757.83 — $760.70 at midday; Nasdaq-100 fund $704.72 flat, on the 704 shelf, under $708.69 — $710.89 at midday; equal-weight S&P −0.8%, Russell −0.4%, VIX 17.7; overnight futures +0.5%, the after-hours prints back at the lines
  3. 3Chips, reclaimed and lost: semiconductor ETF +0.6% to $502.06 — $508.60 at midday, under $505 at the bell; design bought, AMD +1.6% to $512.50, Marvell +3.6%, TSMC +1.2%, Nvidia +0.8% to $213.90; equipment sold a third day, Applied Materials −1.4%, Lam −0.6%, KLA −0.4%, onsemi −9.0%; memory ETF +0.6% to $55.33, Micron −0.1%
  4. 4Rubin +1.9% to 1,880.81 on the wiring, not the tools: Interconnect +4.6%, Advanced Materials +4.2%, DC Power +4.1%, Systems +3.5% — Soitec +13.4%, Lumentum +9.6%, Lenovo +8.3%, Credo +7.4%, Coherent +6.9%, Astera Labs +6.6%; Power Semiconductors −1.0%, onsemi −9.0%, Technoprobe −6.7%; the week −5.3%, the month −7.4%, the year +83.0%
  5. 5The other three on the hike: Agentic Winners 40 −1.3% to 921.21 — Applications −1.5%, UiPath −4.2%, CoStar −3.8%, Duolingo −3.7%, Intuit −3.4%, Adobe −2.8%, ServiceNow −1.5%, Microsoft −1.4%, Oracle +2.0%; HALO −0.3% to 1,005.06, Energy Transition −2.6%, First Solar −5.6%, Axon +6.0%; Agentic Ecosystem +0.3% to 1,606.60, OVHcloud +8.0%, DigitalOcean +5.0%, CoreWeave +3.0%
  6. 6Print record, the drift after the verdicts: Oracle +2.0% to about $143, still under its $148.35 sold line; Adobe −2.8% to about $250, now under the $256.29 line it was paid above — the three-day verdicts stand, the tape has moved on; no windows open, both names next print 9 December
  7. 7Asia into the Bank of Japan: Nikkei +0.2% to 64,024, SoftBank +1.0%, Tokyo Electron −2.1%; Kospi +0.2% to 6,733, SK Hynix −0.2%; Taiex +1.0% to 46,313, TSMC +1.9% to NT$2,425; Hang Seng −0.9% to 24,480; the yen 155.8 after 156.2 overnight; the BoJ decides Friday, expected to raise
  8. 8The other prices: gold −0.6% by the close and −1.2% overnight to $4,335 — sold on the hike; dollar index 100.27; Brent $105.31 after $105.83, under Thursday’s $107.63 a second day; long bond ETF +0.2%, high-yield ETF flat; bitcoin $76,318, +0.5%
  9. 9The wires this morning: ‘Fed raises rates in search of “timelier” drop in inflation, sees more tightening ahead’ (Reuters) · ‘Fed approves interest rate hike, signals one more to come this year’ (CNBC) · ‘The Key Takeaways From Kevin Warsh’s Press Conference’ (WSJ) · ‘Fed hikes interest rates for first time in three years, drawing rebuke from Trump’ (New York Post) · ‘US rate rise jolts yen ahead of Bank of Japan meeting’ (FT) · ‘U.S. stock futures rise after hawkish Fed dents Wall St’ (Investing.com) · ‘Why optical stocks Lumentum and Coherent were the day’s biggest S&P 500 gainers’ (MarketWatch)
  10. 10The clock: weekly jobless claims and the Philadelphia Fed survey 12:30 UTC; the Bank of Japan’s decision in Tokyo on Friday morning, expected to raise; the US quarterly options expiry Friday; Micron’s print next week, the first order-book fact of the quarter; the lines — S&P ETF $757.83, Nasdaq-100 fund 704 and $708.69, chip ETF $505, memory ETF $58, the 10-year 5.00%
The Midday 10 — ten lines on the US midday tape

The Midday 10 · trading days 12:30 ET

Ten lines on the US midday tape — movers, the board, the levels.

Read the Midday 10 →
Daily Pulse cover — gold spheres and polyhedra over crystal blocks under a rising line: assets with no cash flows, priced on the denominator alone

Daily Pulse · every trading day

Rates — Numerator, Denominator: Why the Path Matters More Than the Level

Read the Pulse →
Weekly Signal cover — multi-line chart over a market backdrop: the week the cybersecurity names came down to the line where rising flow either pays or fails.

Weekly Signal · Sundays 21:00 CET

Cybersecurity — Sold on Price, Bought on Flow

One signal to define the week →

Signal reads · this week so far (through Sep 16)

The week on the board

Every number below is the Monday-to-Friday week, measured against the week before — refreshed nightly, each card linked to the full surface. Longer-horizon reads live in the Lab.

  1. The Market This week so far (through Sep 16): the S&P 500 fell -1.3% — with the average stock holding up better the Nasdaq 100 -1.4%, small caps -1.7%, the average big stock -1.2% — every number is the Monday-to-Friday week. Last week: -0.8%. Open the full read →
  2. Closelook Indices This week Agentic Ecosystem set the pace (+4.8%) while Rubin Build-Out fell (-4.2%) Agentic Ecosystem (the AI-opex layer) +4.8% · Agentic Winners 40 (the AI applications) +1.2% · HALO Growth (broad growth) -1.5% · Rubin Build-Out (the AI build-out) -4.2%. Open the full read →
  3. Sectors This week's money went to healthcare and media and telecom; utilities was sold Healthcare +1.5%, media and telecom +0.4%; utilities -2.5%. 2 of 11 sectors green on the week. Open the full read →
  4. Inside Tech Broad software led tech this week (+3.4%) broad software +3.4%, cloud software +3.3%, the chip majors -4.0%, the chip index -4.7%, equal-weight chip stocks -5.1%. The majors beating equal-weight — the chip bid is narrow. Open the full read →
  5. Cross-Asset Gold miners fell -4.4% this week — a bigger weekly move than the stock market's Also on the week: gold -1.8%, silver -1.8%, the dollar +1.2%. Open the full read →
  6. Breadth 37% of S&P 500 stocks ended the week above their 50-day trend, down from 40% a week earlier The participation read behind the week's move. 15 stocks made new one-year highs against 18 new lows. Open the full read →
  7. Trend Engine Kioxia holds the week's strongest trend score Our Directional Flow engine grades every trend nightly: Kioxia leads at 253; the week's fastest riser is SpaceX / Starlink (+19.4 in five sessions), the fastest fader AXIA Energia (-38.1). Scan of 2026-09-16. Open the full read →

Rubin · Functional Index LIVE

Rubin Build-Out 100 — the AI-infrastructure tape

Closelooknet's flagship functional index — 125 names across 24 sub-sectors of the AI data-centre build-out, from lithography and memory to power, construction, and physical AI. Four index variants (equal, cap, momentum, active momentum) and a live sector heatmap so the dominant rotation is visible at a glance. Recomputed every US close.

Closes through Sep 16 2026-09-16
Equal Weight CL-RUBIN-EW 1880.81 −5.31% W/W YTD +82.97% · 1M −7.45% Cap Weight CL-RUBIN-CW 1647.72 −5.01% W/W YTD +59.94% · 1M −3.58% Momentum CL-RUBIN-MW 1896.11 −5.31% W/W YTD +84.46% · 1M −7.45% Active Momentum CL-RUBIN-AM 1894.47 −5.65% W/W YTD +84.68% · 1M −8.37%
Sector decomposition · 24 sub-sectors · week over week
Advanced Materials −5.11% W/W Advanced Packaging & Bonding −6.44% W/W AI Factory Systems +0.61% W/W Architects (Chip Design) −0.87% W/W DC Construction −1.80% W/W DC Power & Electrical −2.10% W/W Deposition, Etch & Process −8.13% W/W EDA & Chip IP −4.31% W/W Fab Subsystems & Process Infra −7.97% W/W Foundry & Integration −6.78% W/W Gases, Chemicals & Consumables −3.86% W/W Grid & Power Infrastructure −4.72% W/W HBM Memory −8.16% W/W High-Speed Interconnects −6.05% W/W Lithography −3.81% W/W Machine Vision, Sensing & Edge −6.12% W/W Photomasks & Mask Infrastructure −6.87% W/W Power Semiconductors −4.50% W/W Robotics & Automation −2.54% W/W Storage −13.14% W/W Substrates & Interposers −7.16% W/W Testing & Metrology −7.31% W/W Thermal Management −5.05% W/W Wafer Processing & Precision −4.47% W/W
Rotation direction · this week
Accelerating ↑
AI Factory Systems +0.61% Architects (Chip Design) −0.87% DC Construction −1.80%
Decelerating ↓
Storage −13.14% HBM Memory −8.16% Deposition, Etch & Process −8.13%

Signal · Global tech LIVE

What's hot in global tech

The day's signals across the US, Europe and Asia — new highs, breakouts, analyst gaps and breadth — ranked into one board, in native currency. Tech only, global by construction. A diary, not advice.

Stock 000660.KS SK hynix Korea · Semis
Up 4.1% at the close ₩1,759,000 +4.1%

Above both trend lines; one of the day's strongest moves.

Seoul close · 16 Sep
Stock INTC Intel US · Tech
Up 4% at the close $101.05 +4.0%

Above both trend lines; one of the day's strongest moves. · Hold 32/46/7

US close · 16 Sep
Stock 2513.HK Zhipu AI / Z.ai Hong Kong · Tech
Up 5.9% at the close HK$720.00 +5.9%

One of the day's strongest moves.

Hong Kong close · 16 Sep
Stock LITE Lumentum US · Tech
Up 9.6% at the close $919.40 +9.6%

Above both trend lines; one of the day's strongest moves.

US close · 16 Sep
Stock COHR Coherent US · Tech
Up 6.9% at the close $289.93 +6.9%

One of the day's strongest moves.

US close · 16 Sep
Stock ON onsemi US · Semis
Down 9% at the close $66.60 -9.0%

Already below its 50-day; one of the day's sharpest drops.

US close · 16 Sep
Stock ALAB Astera Labs US · Tech
Up 6.6% at the close $269.18 +6.6%

One of the day's strongest moves.

US close · 16 Sep
Stock CRDO Credo Technology US · Tech
Up 7.4% at the close $161.49 +7.4%

One of the day's strongest moves.

US close · 16 Sep
Stock FN Fabrinet US · Tech
Up 4.7% at the close $392.68 +4.7%

One of the day's strongest moves.

US close · 16 Sep
See the full Signal Board Every signal across the US, Europe & Asia — plus the growing archive

Signal · Analyst Wire LIVE

What the Street just changed

Every US sell-side upgrade, downgrade and price-target move — newest first, each paired with our read: do we track the name, and where it sits on its 50/200-day. Refreshed through the day.

  1. Downgrade ASR Itau BBA → Market Perform
  2. Downgrade CPRT HSBC → $36 (+16.8%) HALO
  3. PT up GOOGL Evercore ISI → $450 (+31.2%) AW40
  4. Target MWA RBC Capital amid multiple headwinds → $21 (-7.7%)
  5. Target ROIV Stifel → $51 (+28.9%)
  6. Target SUNB Goldman Sachs → $93 (+28.5%)
See every US analyst call — with our read Latest Sep 16 · ratings, targets, consensus + our 50/200-day

Functional Indices · The Barbell LIVE

The Closelooknet barbell — four sides of the AI trade

One thesis in four functional indices: Rubin tracks what builds the AI factory, Agentic what operates it, Agentic Winners who captures the value, and HALO what AI can't touch. Together they turn the AI build-out into a measurable, decomposable tape — equal-weight levels recomputed every US close.

What enables inference Rubin Build-Out 100 The AI data-centre build-out — silicon, memory, power and cloud. 1880.81 −5.31% W/W YTD +82.97% What operates the factory Agentic Ecosystem The AI operating system — the rails that run, secure and monetize agents. 1606.60 +3.81% W/W YTD +62.80% Who captures the value Agentic Winners 40 Who captures AI value across the stack — 40 names in four ABR-gated tiers. 921.21 +1.76% W/W YTD −5.87% What AI can't touch HALO Growth 100 Durable growth insulated from the AI capex cycle. 1005.06 −2.65% W/W YTD −1.12%

Lab · AI Handoff Board

Where AI's value is moving — build, operate, use

Nine ratios of our own indices track the handoff from building the AI factory (Rubin) to operating it (Agentic Infrastructure) to living off it (Winners). Every ratio incepted at 1.00 on 2026-06-30; closes through 2026-09-16.

From building AI to living off it? Use / Build 1.583 +7.47% W/W since inception +58.29% · thesis ↑ Building AI, or running AI? Operate / Build 1.377 +9.63% W/W since inception +37.71% · thesis ↑ Is trust the new bottleneck? Trust / Execution 1.127 +10.26% W/W since inception +12.72% · thesis ↑ Who checks the machines’ work? Verification / Design 1.000 -3.14% W/W since inception -0.04% · thesis ↑

Lab · Mag Pulse

Is the hyperscaler cohort turning?

The Mag complex spent ~19 months sideways on capex fear. The board reads the turn daily: the hyperscaler cohort against the consumer-AI cohort, and the popular instrument against its standing levels. Closes through 2026-09-16.

Regime-turn line · Hyperscalers ÷ Consumer-AI 1.04 -3.44% W/W 1y indexed · rising = the build-out cohort gets paid Hyperscalers · MSFT AMZN GOOGL +0.87% -4.77% 1Y vs QQQ the thesis longs — does the cohort close the gap? MAGS · the map 69.52 +0.29% W/W -0.03% to the 69.50 shelf · pivot 62.56 held The Torque · ORCL -11.43% -55.90% vs Sep-25 high highest-beta seat — the thesis amplifier, both ways

Macro Dashboards · Leading LIVE

Structural Inflation — a leading monitor

Not a CPI mirror: a leading read on where US inflation pressure is heading and whether it is structural or a transitory shock. 26 FRED series across 7 buckets collapse into three gauges — how hot, heating or cooling, and real or noise.

Level How hot 50/100 Contained Direction Heating / cooling 50/100 Flat Character Structural / transitory 50/100 Mixed

Market Structure · Leading LIVE

Market breadth — how broad is the bull?

The index can sit near highs while only a handful of megacaps carry it. This reads the tape directly: of the ~500 S&P 500 names, how many actually participate — above their 200-day, the median stock's return, how many sectors are working.

Above 200-day Participation 55% Narrow-to-mixed Median stock Leadership · YTD +7.8% vs megacap index Sectors positive Rotation 8/11 -10 net 52w highs

Lab · Breadth LIVE

Breadth vs the sector

What the headline hides: are these moves broad, or carried by a few mega-caps? Median constituent vs the index, advancers vs decliners, and a cumulative advance/decline line that tends to turn before price.

Lead Indicators · macro · signal · lab

About closelook.net

Intelligence, signals and portfolios — for global tech investing.

Daily market reads · proprietary functional indices · live model portfolios · real-time pattern signals · and the frameworks behind them.

closelook.net is an independent intelligence, signal and transaction platform for global technology investing. It publishes short-form and long-form editorial reads, proprietary frameworks, functional indices, regime monitors, live model portfolios and a real-time pattern-hit signal scanner.

Eight sections, one spine.

closelook.net is organised around eight connected sections — Pulse, Signal, Indices, Intel, Lab, Portfolios, Tape and Predictions ↗. Every section draws from the same data spine: the proprietary indices, the Money Temperature pipeline, the Pattern Engine and the Cointegration Monitor. Editorial contextualises moves; analysis produces the underlying scores; portfolios and predictions convert those scores into verifiable positions.

Closelooknet sits between a Bloomberg terminal and an investment newsletter — quant-desk methods packaged as free access and premium subscription for retail investors, boutique advisers and family offices.

What Closelooknet is → Browse the 101 series → Compare C+ tiers →

Pulse · Editorial AUTO

Latest editorial

Editorial cards that translate analysis into language: the Daily Pulse — a short pre-market summary published 08:30 New York; Heresies — short-form opinion against the consensus; the Weekly Signal — a Sunday trade call with full reasoning and invalidation; Reports — long-form structural research; the Newsletter — the Substack + LinkedIn long-form companion; and On That Day in Markets — a twice-weekly finance-history quiz.

Pulse · Newsletter

Newsletter family

The long-form companion to the site — a Substack hub plus LinkedIn newsletters tailored to audience-specific frames: global stock markets, US stock markets and hypergrowth. Subscribe on the platform you already read.

Signal · Live signal log LIVE

Latest signals

Live: every Add, Reduce, Roll and Exit across the Closelooknet model portfolios, logged with the reasoning in plain English. SSR-seeds with the static fallback for first paint, then replaces with the freshest rows from /api/signals/trades. The Pattern Engine feed (proprietary patterns from the Directional Alpha framework) joins this page when the signal-ticker worker ships.

  1. Added BESVF AI Buildout May 30

    Reasoning published in the next Daily Pulse, Weekly Signal, or Newsletter.
  2. Exited SIE.D.DX AI Buildout May 30

    Reasoning published in the next Daily Pulse, Weekly Signal, or Newsletter.
  3. Exited BESI.NA AI Buildout May 30

    Reasoning published in the next Daily Pulse, Weekly Signal, or Newsletter.

Indices LIVE

Functional indices

Proprietary indices built to uncover the narratives that drive markets beneath the surface — sector rotation, supply-chain shifts, smart-money positioning. Structured by function, not by SIC classification. Each index is recomputed nightly and evolves as the dominant themes change.

Intel · Reads / 101 / Glossary AUTO

Frameworks and briefs

The substance layer: plain-English 101 entries that explain the concepts behind our signals, glossary terms a quant desk would assume you know, and deep-research briefs on single themes. Every scoring decision on the site traces back to a framework documented here.

Lab · Quant dashboards LIVE

Lab status

Live quantitative dashboards — such as the Money Temperature gauge tracking macro regime shifts, the Cointegration Monitor flagging pair-trading breaks, and rotation trackers across our index families. Each tool publishes its raw data so you can reconstruct the score.

Money Temperature —

Mixed / transitional
45/100
Open →

Cointegration —

6 pairs breaking

SPY/GLD · QQQ/SPY · BTC-USD/QQQ +3 more

Open →

Pattern Engine live

4 alerts today

Latest: Asia close: Nikkei +0.32%, KOSPI +0.89% — TAIEX +1.4% leads Asia · US close: S&P +0.27%, NDX +0.67% — KOSPI +0.9% leads Asia

Open →

AW40 · Agentic —

—

Agentic Winners 40 against its benchmarks and the software/semis rotation.

Open →

Lab · Sector Engine LIVE

Global sector heatmap

11 GICS sectors across 4 regions, refreshed daily. Cross-region spreads, cyclical-defensive rotation, and region-weighted globals — the decomposition that tells you whether a global sector move was actually global, or just one region carrying the average.

Leading sector globally —

Tech +15.4%

Region-weighted across the 4-region matrix · 1-month window

Open →

Lagging sector globally —

Health Care -2.9%

Region-weighted across the 4-region matrix · 1-month window

Open →

Risk-on regime —

EM +7.3%

Strongest cyclical − defensive spread across regions · 1-month

Open →

Portfolios · Model LIVE

Live model portfolios

Live reference portfolios — active discretionary baskets covering tech equities, thematic buildouts, global ETFs and derivatives, plus systematic Rubin trackers (Equal Weight, Momentum, Sector Rotation). Every position is visible daily, every change is logged. Skin in the game, scored against the same benchmarks you would use — no opaque sleeves, no hidden bets.

Tape · Live channel LIVE

Latest tape

Price-action news for the Closelook universe — surfaced from the noise. Bellwether multi-day flow, PEAD signals, watchpoint events and macro cards, posted continuously across the trading day.

The Trading Days

All days →

Every trading day, kept as a permanent page — what the homepage looked like when it mattered.

Predictions · Expert forecasts

Calibrated forecasts, not prediction markets.

Structured forecasts scored on accuracy, not opinion. Community, experts and AI each make their call — the scoreboard is public, the methodology transparent. Predictions closes the loop between intelligence, signal and outcome — it is where Closelooknet keeps itself honest.

Invited experts forecast binary finance questions — FOMC decisions, earnings beats, macro moves, crypto levels. Scoring is Brier + log-loss, not cash. Runs on predictions.closelook.net with its own Cloudflare worker and D1 database. Metaculus model, finance-vertical focus. live

FAQ · Frequently asked

What Closelooknet is, in plain questions.

What is closelook.net?
closelook.net is an independent research and signal platform for global technology investing. It publishes proprietary frameworks, functional indices such as the Rubin Build-Out 100, HALO Growth 100 and Euro-AI Sovereign 50, a Money Temperature regime monitor, a cointegration dashboard, five live model portfolios and a real-time pattern-hit signal ticker. Closelooknet sits between a Bloomberg terminal and an investment newsletter — quant-desk methods packaged as a subscription for retail investors, boutique advisers and family offices.
Who is closelook.net for?
closelook.net is built for three audiences: clever retail investors who manage their own book, boutique advisers running client portfolios, and single or multi-family offices allocating across public tech equity. The common denominator is an investor who wants the transparency of systematic methods without the cost and complexity of a full trading desk. The site is in English with occasional German source material, and the tier structure is designed so that the free layer covers most self-directed users while paid tiers add real-time signals and deeper pattern detail.
What is the Money Temperature?
Money Temperature is a regime monitor computed daily from eight macro instruments — US and German yield curves, the DXY dollar index, gold, oil, copper, credit spreads and implied volatility. Each instrument is scored on trend, cointegration stability and cross-market consistency using Engle-Granger and Hurst statistics. The composite score lands on a 0–100 scale and is rendered as one of three states: 🟢 calm, 🟡 transition or 🔴 stress. The pipeline runs at 23:05 UTC on GitHub Actions and writes its output to a Cloudflare R2 bucket. Live dashboard: Money Temperature lab.
What are functional indices?
A functional index is a rules-based basket constructed around a specific economic function rather than a sector label. The Rubin Build-Out 100 tracks the equity expression of the AI data-centre build-out across 24 sub-sectors with a deliberate Asian weighting. HALO Growth 100 captures functional growth compounders across twelve sectors. Euro-AI Sovereign 50 isolates the European AI sovereignty theme. Because each index is constructed from a function rather than a market-cap float filter, the constituent list can cross traditional index boundaries and is rebalanced on disclosed rules.
How does the signal ticker work?
The signal ticker is an agentic feed. A Cloudflare worker scans the proprietary data sources — the Money Temperature output, the four functional indices, the cointegration monitor and a live pattern library of 51 directional-alpha patterns — every few minutes. When a pattern fires on an instrument in the Closelooknet universe, an Anthropic-powered agent composes a short signal bite with confidence, temperature context and index weight. Bites are written to Cloudflare KV, exposed via /api/signals, and rendered both as a scrolling strip and as a filterable feed.
How is closelook.net different from Bloomberg, Reuters or a typical newsletter?
Bloomberg and Reuters are horizontal — they cover everything at news-wire depth. Closelooknet is vertical: it covers one stack (global tech investing) with proprietary indices, proprietary patterns and its own regime models. A typical newsletter offers opinion without a data spine. Closelooknet offers both: every editorial piece links back to the data that justifies it, and every data view links forward to the editorial that contextualises it. Pricing reflects the positioning — a C+ Premier subscription at $89 per month sits between a newsletter and an institutional data contract.

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