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Markets

Where markets stand

S&P 500 771.33 +1.80% Nasdaq-100 723.85 +3.40% Dow 540.43 +1.73% Russell 2000 301.71 +1.85% Volatility 20.45 +0.49%

As of 08:37 UTC Indicative levels · not a trading feed

Systematic Market Intelligence

Money Temp 61 Rubin 2,121 40 dispersion cuts — signals today

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Analog Devices earnings print record — beat history and three-day reactions
PRINT RECORD Print Record — Analog Devices (ADI) 10/10 EPS beats, 10/10 revenue — into the 2026-08-19 print. Read →

Live channel STREAMING

Just happened on closelook

  1. NEWSLETTER The Bid Crosses the Pacific
  2. MIDDAY 10 The Midday 10 — The benign inflation week broke at its last two prints.
  3. PRINT RECORD Print Record — Analog Devices (ADI): 10/10 EPS beats, 10/10 revenue, into the 2026-08-19 print
  4. PULSE One Week, Three Indices, Opened to the Sector Level — Where the Rotation Actually Happened
  5. MORNING 10 The Morning 10 — Thursday ran both stories at once.
  6. ANALYST UBS cut PT on AMAT → $675 (+26.3%)
  7. ANALYST UBS raised PT on WDAY → $220 (+6.6%)
  8. PULSE No Bursting Bubble — The Rotation Inside the AI Trade, in Four Panels, With PPI as the Hinge
  9. REPORT The Toll at the Only Bridge
  10. REPORT The Toll Nobody Keeps
  11. WIRE This week so far (through Aug 13): the S&P 500 rose 0.6% — and the average stock kept pace
  12. WIRE This week Agentic Ecosystem set the pace (+8.4%) while HALO Growth trailed (+0.6%)
  13. WIRE This week's money went to energy and healthcare; consumer names lagged
  14. EARNINGS NU beat (+10.9%) — EPS $0.22 vs $0.20 est
  15. EARNINGS AMAT beat (+2.9%) — EPS $3.50 vs $3.40 est
  16. NEWSLETTER "The Conversions Held. The Referee Paid."
  17. NEWSLETTER Three Layers, One Bid
  18. WEEKLY The Punished Led the Week
  19. HERESY Price Is the Only Truth — Closelook Heresy VII
  20. STRATEGY The Request Becomes the Transaction

See all the tape → Analyst wire → Earnings wire →

🌡 Money Temperature Transition 61/100 Rubin 2121.12 +5.46% W/W Agentic 1686.55 +12.24% W/W HALO 1085.26 +2.34% W/W All indices →

Look up any covered stock

Browse all covered names →

Printing this week NBISCOHRCSCOAMATFNBIDUADIMNDY

Top scored ZEAL.COSNDKMUAPPTSMWISE.L

The AI build-out, tracked like a book — five proprietary indices, a daily ten-point read, and calls that get scored in public.

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  • Five proprietary indices, recomputed daily
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Top stories

The latest from the desk

A dark machine housing opened to reveal three glowing engine columns above a luminous interconnect mesh and a golden factory floor, surrounded by hexagonal component modules — the three AI indices opened to their sector level.
PULSE One Week, Three Indices, Opened to the Sector Level — Where the Rotation Actually Happened The week's real story is one level below the index prints. Read →
The Morning 10 — ten points to watch on the stock market, every morning
MORNING 10 The Morning 10
AMAT · · ·
Analyst UBS cut PT on AMAT → $675 (+26.3%)
The Midday 10 — ten lines on the US midday tape
MIDDAY 10 The Midday 10
NU · · ·
Earnings NU beat (+10.9%) — EPS $0.22 vs $0.20 est

The Rhythm AUTO

Four reads, one system

The morning map, the midday tape, the day live, the week's one signal — the Morning 10 at 08:00 CET, the Midday 10 at 12:30 ET, the Daily Pulse through the trading day, the Weekly Signal on Sunday at 21:00 CET.

The Morning 10 — ten points to watch on the stock market, every morning.

Today Fri, Aug 14

Thursday ran both stories at once. The index stayed orderly — S&P 500 +0.7% to 7,799, Nasdaq-100 +1.1% — while the sorting underneath was violent: Cisco's twenty-first straight double beat closed −8.4%, Coherent's eleventh beat −8.0%, and CoreWeave and Nebius gave back barely a point of their +19/+34 verdicts. Then Workday halted mid-afternoon: Silver Lake is reportedly in talks to take it private. It closed +17.8% on 3.6 times average volume. After dark the sorting rule spoke again — Applied Materials beat on both lines for the eleventh straight quarter and traded about five percent lower. Overnight Seoul ran a fourth day, KOSPI +2.3%, and the memory trade kept pressing: the Roundhill Memory ETF sits just under its 58 resistance, up about thirty percent from the late-July low. Retail sales ex-autos at 14:30 CET and Michigan sentiment at 16:00 CET close the macro week. And Lumentum's earnings window closes at tonight's bell — a record that has never printed a middle faces its first.

Read today’s 10 →
  1. 1Applied Materials — beat both, charged after dark
  2. 2Cisco & Coherent — the day-one verdicts landed
  3. 3Workday — a financial buyer walks into the software discount
  4. 4Seoul day four & the memory ETF at the 58 line
  5. 5Lumentum — the lump record faces its first middle tonight
  6. 6The index family — the rotation in our own numbers
  7. 7The two tells — IEF holds the reclaim, dollar-yen refuses a third time
  8. 8Vol, factors, temperature — risk appetite with a governor
  9. 9Calendar — retail sales and Michigan close the macro week
  10. 10Outside view — Gene Munster · Deepwater Asset Management
The Midday 10 — ten lines on the US midday tape

The Midday 10 · trading days 12:30 ET

Ten lines on the US midday tape — movers, the board, the levels.

Read the Midday 10 →
A dark machine housing opened to reveal three glowing engine columns above a luminous interconnect mesh and a golden factory floor, surrounded by hexagonal component modules — the three AI indices opened to their sector level.

Daily Pulse · every trading day

One Week, Three Indices, Opened to the Sector Level — Where the Rotation Actually Happened

Read the Pulse →
The Weekly Signal — Closelook's Sunday market signal, scored every week.

Weekly Signal · Sundays 21:00 CET

The Punished Led the Week

One signal to define the week →

Signal reads · this week so far (through Aug 13)

The week on the board

Every number below is the Monday-to-Friday week, measured against the week before — refreshed nightly, each card linked to the full surface. Longer-horizon reads live in the Lab.

  1. The Market This week so far (through Aug 13): the S&P 500 rose 0.6% — and the average stock kept pace the Nasdaq 100 +1.3%, small caps +0.6%, the average big stock +1.2% — every number is the Monday-to-Friday week. Last week: +3.5%. Open the full read →
  2. Closelook Indices This week Agentic Ecosystem set the pace (+8.4%) while HALO Growth trailed (+0.6%) Agentic Ecosystem (the AI-opex layer) +8.4% · Rubin Build-Out (the AI build-out) +4.4% · Agentic Winners 40 (the AI applications) +3.7% · HALO Growth (broad growth) +0.6%. Open the full read →
  3. Sectors This week's money went to energy and healthcare; consumer names lagged Energy +6.2%, healthcare +1.6%; consumer names -1.2%. 9 of 11 sectors green on the week. Open the full read →
  4. Inside Tech Cloud software led tech this week (+6.7%) cloud software +6.7%, broad software +3.5%, the chip index +1.4%, the chip majors +1.1%, equal-weight chip stocks -1.8%. The majors beating equal-weight — the chip bid is narrow. Open the full read →
  5. Cross-Asset Oil rose 6.0% this week — a bigger weekly move than the stock market's Also on the week: gold miners -1.8%, silver +1.1%, the dollar +0.4%. Open the full read →
  6. Breadth 67% of S&P 500 stocks ended the week above their 50-day trend, up from 63% a week earlier The participation read behind the week's move. 22 stocks made new one-year highs against 2 new lows. Open the full read →

Rubin · Functional Index LIVE

Rubin Build-Out 100 — the AI-infrastructure tape

Closelooknet's flagship functional index — 125 names across 24 sub-sectors of the AI data-centre build-out, from lithography and memory to power, construction, and physical AI. Four index variants (equal, cap, momentum, active momentum) and a live sector heatmap so the dominant rotation is visible at a glance. Recomputed every US close.

Closes through Aug 13 2026-08-13
Equal Weight CL-RUBIN-EW 2121.12 +5.46% W/W YTD +106.37% · 1M −0.30% Cap Weight CL-RUBIN-CW 1773.69 +4.20% W/W YTD +72.18% · 1M −0.56% Momentum CL-RUBIN-MW 2137.05 +5.46% W/W YTD +107.92% · 1M −0.30% Active Momentum CL-RUBIN-AM 2131.14 +5.53% W/W YTD +107.77% · 1M −1.62%
Sector decomposition · 24 sub-sectors · week over week
Advanced Materials +10.82% W/W Advanced Packaging & Bonding +6.27% W/W AI Factory Systems +14.29% W/W Architects (Chip Design) +5.25% W/W DC Construction +1.81% W/W DC Power & Electrical +3.31% W/W Deposition, Etch & Process +5.89% W/W EDA & Chip IP −1.86% W/W Fab Subsystems & Process Infra −0.32% W/W Foundry & Integration +6.76% W/W Gases, Chemicals & Consumables +0.65% W/W Grid & Power Infrastructure +4.96% W/W HBM Memory +10.71% W/W High-Speed Interconnects +4.06% W/W Lithography +3.79% W/W Machine Vision, Sensing & Edge +0.97% W/W Photomasks & Mask Infrastructure +10.35% W/W Power Semiconductors +1.65% W/W Robotics & Automation +1.76% W/W Storage +11.34% W/W Substrates & Interposers +6.22% W/W Testing & Metrology +9.09% W/W Thermal Management +1.03% W/W Wafer Processing & Precision −0.65% W/W
Rotation direction · this week
Accelerating ↑
AI Factory Systems +14.29% Storage +11.34% Advanced Materials +10.82%
Decelerating ↓
EDA & Chip IP −1.86% Wafer Processing & Precision −0.65% Fab Subsystems & Process Infra −0.32%

Signal · Global tech LIVE

What's hot in global tech

The day's signals across the US, Europe and Asia — new highs, breakouts, analyst gaps and breadth — ranked into one board, in native currency. Tech only, global by construction. A diary, not advice.

Stock SNOW Snowflake US · Semis
New 52-week high $330.49 +3.9%

At a fresh 52-week high, up 3.9% on the day. · Buy 42/9/1

US close · 7 Aug
Stock 000660.KS SK hynix Korea · Semis
Down 4.9% at the close ₩1,422,000 -4.9%

Already below its 50-day; one of the day's sharpest drops.

Seoul close · 7 Aug
Stock QCOM Qualcomm US · Semis
Up 4.7% at the close $167.86 +4.7%

One of the day's strongest moves. · Hold 30/34/5

US close · 7 Aug
Stock GLW Corning US · Tech
Up 5.4% at the close $165.68 +5.4%

One of the day's strongest moves. · Buy 21/14/2

US close · 7 Aug
Stock 2513.HK Zhipu AI / Z.ai Hong Kong · Tech
Up 14.6% at the close HK$1,246.00 +14.6%

One of the day's strongest moves.

Hong Kong close · 7 Aug
Stock NET Cloudflare US · Software
Up 5.6% at the close $300.27 +5.6%

Above both trend lines; one of the day's strongest moves. · Buy 29/9/2

US close · 7 Aug
Stock LITE Lumentum US · Tech
Up 6.2% at the close $890.17 +6.2%

Above both trend lines; one of the day's strongest moves. · Buy 18/7/0

US close · 7 Aug
Stock COHR Coherent US · Tech
Up 13.4% at the close $379.13 +13.4%

Above both trend lines; one of the day's strongest moves. · Buy 24/6/0

US close · 7 Aug
Stock 6146.T DISCO Corp Japan · Semis
Down 5.1% at the close ¥58,440 -5.1%

Already below its 50-day; one of the day's sharpest drops.

Tokyo close · 7 Aug
See the full Signal Board Every signal across the US, Europe & Asia — plus the growing archive

Signal · Analyst Wire LIVE

What the Street just changed

Every US sell-side upgrade, downgrade and price-target move — newest first, each paired with our read: do we track the name, and where it sits on its 50/200-day. Refreshed through the day.

  1. Downgrade GLOB Wedbush → Neutral
  2. Initiate ALVO Evercore ISI → Outperform
  3. Initiate SGP Raymond James → Outperform
  4. Initiate KRYS RBC Capital → Outperform
  5. Initiate SDGR UBS → $19 (+2.9%)
  6. Downgrade TMUS Wolfe Research → Peer Perform
See every US analyst call — with our read Latest Aug 14 · ratings, targets, consensus + our 50/200-day

Functional Indices · The Barbell LIVE

The Closelooknet barbell — four sides of the AI trade

One thesis in four functional indices: Rubin tracks what builds the AI factory, Agentic what operates it, Agentic Winners who captures the value, and HALO what AI can't touch. Together they turn the AI build-out into a measurable, decomposable tape — equal-weight levels recomputed every US close.

What enables inference Rubin Build-Out 100 The AI data-centre build-out — silicon, memory, power and cloud. 2121.12 +5.46% W/W YTD +106.37% What operates the factory Agentic Ecosystem The AI operating system — the rails that run, secure and monetize agents. 1686.55 +12.24% W/W YTD +70.90% Who captures the value Agentic Winners 40 Who captures AI value across the stack — 40 names in four ABR-gated tiers. 913.21 +7.64% W/W YTD −6.69% What AI can't touch HALO Growth 100 Durable growth insulated from the AI capex cycle. 1085.26 +2.34% W/W YTD +6.81%

Lab · AI Handoff Board

Where AI's value is moving — build, operate, use

Nine ratios of our own indices track the handoff from building the AI factory (Rubin) to operating it (Agentic Infrastructure) to living off it (Winners). Every ratio incepted at 1.00 on 2026-06-30; closes through 2026-08-13.

From building AI to living off it? Use / Build 1.400 +2.07% W/W since inception +40.03% · thesis ↑ Building AI, or running AI? Operate / Build 1.290 +6.44% W/W since inception +29.01% · thesis ↑ Is trust the new bottleneck? Trust / Execution 1.004 -7.12% W/W since inception +0.39% · thesis ↑ Who checks the machines’ work? Verification / Design 1.057 +11.16% W/W since inception +5.71% · thesis ↑

Lab · Mag Pulse

Is the hyperscaler cohort turning?

The Mag complex spent ~19 months sideways on capex fear. The board reads the turn daily: the hyperscaler cohort against the consumer-AI cohort, and the popular instrument against its standing levels. Closes through 2026-08-13.

Regime-turn line · Hyperscalers ÷ Consumer-AI 1.26 -1.48% W/W 1y indexed · rising = the build-out cohort gets paid Hyperscalers · MSFT AMZN GOOGL -2.35% +0.79% 1Y vs QQQ the thesis longs — does the cohort close the gap? MAGS · the map 68.49 -0.13% W/W +1.47% to the 69.50 shelf · pivot 62.56 held The Torque · ORCL +8.89% -51.88% vs Sep-25 high highest-beta seat — the thesis amplifier, both ways

Macro Dashboards · Leading LIVE

Structural Inflation — a leading monitor

Not a CPI mirror: a leading read on where US inflation pressure is heading and whether it is structural or a transitory shock. 26 FRED series across 7 buckets collapse into three gauges — how hot, heating or cooling, and real or noise.

Level How hot 49/100 Contained Direction Heating / cooling 48/100 Flat Character Structural / transitory 43/100 Leans transitory

Market Structure · Leading LIVE

Market breadth — how broad is the bull?

The index can sit near highs while only a handful of megacaps carry it. This reads the tape directly: of the ~500 S&P 500 names, how many actually participate — above their 200-day, the median stock's return, how many sectors are working.

Above 200-day Participation 75% Broad Median stock Leadership · YTD +12.8% vs megacap index Sectors positive Rotation 9/11 +9 net 52w highs

Lab · Breadth LIVE

Breadth vs the sector

What the headline hides: are these moves broad, or carried by a few mega-caps? Median constituent vs the index, advancers vs decliners, and a cumulative advance/decline line that tends to turn before price.

Lead Indicators · macro · signal · lab

About closelook.net

Intelligence, signals and portfolios — for global tech investing.

Daily market reads · proprietary functional indices · live model portfolios · real-time pattern signals · and the frameworks behind them.

closelook.net is an independent intelligence, signal and transaction platform for global technology investing. It publishes short-form and long-form editorial reads, proprietary frameworks, functional indices, regime monitors, live model portfolios and a real-time pattern-hit signal scanner.

Eight sections, one spine.

closelook.net is organised around eight connected sections — Pulse, Signal, Indices, Intel, Lab, Portfolios, Tape and Predictions ↗. Every section draws from the same data spine: the proprietary indices, the Money Temperature pipeline, the Pattern Engine and the Cointegration Monitor. Editorial contextualises moves; analysis produces the underlying scores; portfolios and predictions convert those scores into verifiable positions.

Closelooknet sits between a Bloomberg terminal and an investment newsletter — quant-desk methods packaged as free access and premium subscription for retail investors, boutique advisers and family offices.

What Closelooknet is → Browse the 101 series → Compare C+ tiers →

Pulse · Editorial AUTO

Latest editorial

Editorial cards that translate analysis into language: the Daily Pulse — a short pre-market summary published 08:30 New York; Heresies — short-form opinion against the consensus; the Weekly Signal — a Sunday trade call with full reasoning and invalidation; Reports — long-form structural research; the Newsletter — the Substack + LinkedIn long-form companion; and On That Day in Markets — a twice-weekly finance-history quiz.

Pulse · Newsletter

Newsletter family

The long-form companion to the site — a Substack hub plus LinkedIn newsletters tailored to audience-specific frames: global stock markets, US stock markets and hypergrowth. Subscribe on the platform you already read.

Signal · Live signal log LIVE

Latest signals

Live: every Add, Reduce, Roll and Exit across the Closelooknet model portfolios, logged with the reasoning in plain English. SSR-seeds with the static fallback for first paint, then replaces with the freshest rows from /api/signals/trades. The Pattern Engine feed (proprietary patterns from the Directional Alpha framework) joins this page when the signal-ticker worker ships.

  1. Added BESVF AI Buildout May 30

    Reasoning published in the next Daily Pulse, Weekly Signal, or Newsletter.
  2. Exited SIE.D.DX AI Buildout May 30

    Reasoning published in the next Daily Pulse, Weekly Signal, or Newsletter.
  3. Exited BESI.NA AI Buildout May 30

    Reasoning published in the next Daily Pulse, Weekly Signal, or Newsletter.

Indices LIVE

Functional indices

Proprietary indices built to uncover the narratives that drive markets beneath the surface — sector rotation, supply-chain shifts, smart-money positioning. Structured by function, not by SIC classification. Each index is recomputed nightly and evolves as the dominant themes change.

Intel · Reads / 101 / Glossary AUTO

Frameworks and briefs

The substance layer: plain-English 101 entries that explain the concepts behind our signals, glossary terms a quant desk would assume you know, and deep-research briefs on single themes. Every scoring decision on the site traces back to a framework documented here.

Lab · Quant dashboards LIVE

Lab status

Live quantitative dashboards — such as the Money Temperature gauge tracking macro regime shifts, the Cointegration Monitor flagging pair-trading breaks, and rotation trackers across our index families. Each tool publishes its raw data so you can reconstruct the score.

Money Temperature —

Risk-on rally
61/100
Open →

Cointegration —

2 pairs breaking

Loading…

Open →

Pattern Engine live

3 alerts today

NVDA support confluence · DAX cointegration break · Asia overnight pivot.

Open →

AW40 · Agentic —

753.69 -0.78%

Euro-AI sovereignty rotation dominant in AW40 basket.

Open →

Lab · Sector Engine LIVE

Global sector heatmap

11 GICS sectors across 4 regions, refreshed daily. Cross-region spreads, cyclical-defensive rotation, and region-weighted globals — the decomposition that tells you whether a global sector move was actually global, or just one region carrying the average.

Leading sector globally —

Tech +15.4%

Region-weighted across the 4-region matrix · 1-month window

Open →

Lagging sector globally —

Health Care -2.9%

Region-weighted across the 4-region matrix · 1-month window

Open →

Risk-on regime —

EM +7.3%

Strongest cyclical − defensive spread across regions · 1-month

Open →

Portfolios · Model LIVE

Live model portfolios

Live reference portfolios — active discretionary baskets covering tech equities, thematic buildouts, global ETFs and derivatives, plus systematic Rubin trackers (Equal Weight, Momentum, Sector Rotation). Every position is visible daily, every change is logged. Skin in the game, scored against the same benchmarks you would use — no opaque sleeves, no hidden bets.

Tape · Live channel LIVE

Latest tape

Price-action news for the Closelook universe — surfaced from the noise. Bellwether multi-day flow, PEAD signals, watchpoint events and macro cards, posted continuously across the trading day.

The Trading Days

All days →

Every trading day, kept as a permanent page — what the homepage looked like when it mattered.

Predictions · Expert forecasts

Calibrated forecasts, not prediction markets.

Structured forecasts scored on accuracy, not opinion. Community, experts and AI each make their call — the scoreboard is public, the methodology transparent. Predictions closes the loop between intelligence, signal and outcome — it is where Closelooknet keeps itself honest.

Invited experts forecast binary finance questions — FOMC decisions, earnings beats, macro moves, crypto levels. Scoring is Brier + log-loss, not cash. Runs on predictions.closelook.net with its own Cloudflare worker and D1 database. Metaculus model, finance-vertical focus. live

FAQ · Frequently asked

What Closelooknet is, in plain questions.

What is closelook.net?
closelook.net is an independent research and signal platform for global technology investing. It publishes proprietary frameworks, functional indices such as the Rubin Build-Out 100, HALO Growth 100 and Euro-AI Sovereign 50, a Money Temperature regime monitor, a cointegration dashboard, five live model portfolios and a real-time pattern-hit signal ticker. Closelooknet sits between a Bloomberg terminal and an investment newsletter — quant-desk methods packaged as a subscription for retail investors, boutique advisers and family offices.
Who is closelook.net for?
closelook.net is built for three audiences: clever retail investors who manage their own book, boutique advisers running client portfolios, and single or multi-family offices allocating across public tech equity. The common denominator is an investor who wants the transparency of systematic methods without the cost and complexity of a full trading desk. The site is in English with occasional German source material, and the tier structure is designed so that the free layer covers most self-directed users while paid tiers add real-time signals and deeper pattern detail.
What is the Money Temperature?
Money Temperature is a regime monitor computed daily from eight macro instruments — US and German yield curves, the DXY dollar index, gold, oil, copper, credit spreads and implied volatility. Each instrument is scored on trend, cointegration stability and cross-market consistency using Engle-Granger and Hurst statistics. The composite score lands on a 0–100 scale and is rendered as one of three states: 🟢 calm, 🟡 transition or 🔴 stress. The pipeline runs at 23:05 UTC on GitHub Actions and writes its output to a Cloudflare R2 bucket. Live dashboard: Money Temperature lab.
What are functional indices?
A functional index is a rules-based basket constructed around a specific economic function rather than a sector label. The Rubin Build-Out 100 tracks the equity expression of the AI data-centre build-out across 24 sub-sectors with a deliberate Asian weighting. HALO Growth 100 captures functional growth compounders across twelve sectors. Euro-AI Sovereign 50 isolates the European AI sovereignty theme. Because each index is constructed from a function rather than a market-cap float filter, the constituent list can cross traditional index boundaries and is rebalanced on disclosed rules.
How does the signal ticker work?
The signal ticker is an agentic feed. A Cloudflare worker scans the proprietary data sources — the Money Temperature output, the four functional indices, the cointegration monitor and a live pattern library of 51 directional-alpha patterns — every few minutes. When a pattern fires on an instrument in the Closelooknet universe, an Anthropic-powered agent composes a short signal bite with confidence, temperature context and index weight. Bites are written to Cloudflare KV, exposed via /api/signals, and rendered both as a scrolling strip and as a filterable feed.
How is closelook.net different from Bloomberg, Reuters or a typical newsletter?
Bloomberg and Reuters are horizontal — they cover everything at news-wire depth. Closelooknet is vertical: it covers one stack (global tech investing) with proprietary indices, proprietary patterns and its own regime models. A typical newsletter offers opinion without a data spine. Closelooknet offers both: every editorial piece links back to the data that justifies it, and every data view links forward to the editorial that contextualises it. Pricing reflects the positioning — a C+ Premier subscription at $89 per month sits between a newsletter and an institutional data contract.

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