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Market Structure · Beta Instability

Market X-Ray

The chart can be fine while participation breaks down underneath. The X-Ray measures it directly — upside beta (on up-days), downside beta (on down-days), asymmetry and instability — across the key structure pairs and 343 names in our indices. Detecting the rotation before price makes it obvious.

vs S&P 500 31% losing upside participation, 37% gaining downside fragility
vs Nasdaq-100 32% losing upside participation, 43% gaining downside fragility

Updated daily · data as of 2026-06-04 · Participation fragile — fragility rising beneath the surface

The pairs we watch — full scores

Each pair, decomposed on up-days and down-days separately. These are the published "Troops Leaving Before the Generals" set.

SMH / QQQ fragile

Semiconductor leadership vs Nasdaq

Upside β1.79
Downside β1.87
Asymmetry-0.08
Particip.0.96
horizon21d63d126d252d
up β2.031.731.791.62
down β2.131.761.871.73
β-z +1.48instab 48 partic 86fragil 96
downside-beta expansionnegative beta asymmetrydownside-beta expansion (sharp)
XSD / QQQ healthy-leader

Equal-weight semis vs Nasdaq

Upside β1.80
Downside β1.69
Asymmetry+0.11
Particip.1.06
horizon21d63d126d252d
up β1.511.711.801.81
down β1.692.031.691.76
β-z +1.02instab 51 partic 79fragil 55
upside participation deteriorating (sharp)downside-beta expansion (sharp)
XSD / SPY neutral

Equal-weight semis vs market

Upside β2.11
Downside β1.83
Asymmetry+0.27
Particip.1.15
horizon21d63d126d252d
up β1.751.942.112.27
down β-1.552.071.832.26
β-z +0.20instab 21 partic 49fragil 15
early beta improvementupside participation deteriorating (sharp)downside-beta expansion (sharp)
IWM / SPY neutral

Small-cap participation

Upside β1.23
Downside β1.10
Asymmetry+0.12
Particip.1.11
horizon21d63d126d252d
up β1.231.161.231.45
down β1.491.211.101.22
β-z +0.14instab 4 partic 34fragil 46
beta-adjusted underperformancedownside-beta expansion (sharp)
RSP / SPY fragile

S&P 500 equal-weight participation

Upside β0.75
Downside β0.81
Asymmetry-0.05
Particip.0.93
horizon21d63d126d252d
up β0.420.750.750.81
down β0.980.800.810.79
β-z -0.63instab 13 partic 16fragil 55
upside-beta collapsenegative beta asymmetrybeta-adjusted underperformanceupside participation deteriorating (sharp)
HYG / SPY decoupling

Credit confirmation

Upside β0.28
Downside β0.23
Asymmetry+0.05
Particip.1.23
horizon21d63d126d252d
up β0.380.290.280.29
down β0.370.300.230.19
β-z +2.24instab 51 partic 70fragil 69
ARKK / QQQ fragile

Speculative-growth appetite

Upside β1.52
Downside β1.76
Asymmetry-0.24
Particip.0.86
horizon21d63d126d252d
up β1.161.491.521.53
down β2.381.761.761.93
β-z -1.28instab 47 partic 57fragil 69
negative beta asymmetryupside participation deteriorating (sharp)downside-beta expansion (sharp)

Participation breadth — by index (vs S&P 500)

Want a specific name? Open the X-Ray Directory → — search, sort and open any of 377 names on the full toolbox vs SPY & Nasdaq.

How to read it

For each pair (asset vs benchmark), returns are split into the benchmark's up-days and down-days. Upside β is participation in rallies; downside β is vulnerability in selloffs; asymmetry (up − down) and the participation ratio (up ÷ down) say whether an asset captures more upside than downside. Read across 21 / 63 / 126 / 252 days: a sharp drop at the short horizon while the long looks fine is the early warning.

For information and discussion only — a reading of market internals, not investment advice. Scores are relative and descriptive. Cross-read with the Money Temperature regime.