Market Structure · Beta Instability

Market X-Ray

The chart can be fine while participation breaks down underneath. The X-Ray measures it directly — upside beta (on up-days), downside beta (on down-days), asymmetry and instability — across the key structure pairs and 343 names in our indices. Detecting the rotation before price makes it obvious.

vs S&P 500 29% losing upside participation, 40% gaining downside fragility

vs Nasdaq-100 37% losing upside participation, 27% gaining downside fragility

Updated daily · data as of 2026-06-24 · Participation fragile — fragility rising beneath the surface

Latest read The Generals Have Followed Their Troops — the breadth warning becomes price confirmation →

Toolboxes Daily Read → Beta Instability Breadth-of-Breadth · 68 Mixed participation → Ratio-Quality → Divergence Scanner → Alert Stack → Regime Baselines → Anomaly Score → Directory →

The pairs we watch — full scores

Each pair, decomposed on up-days and down-days separately. These are the published "Troops Leaving Before the Generals" set — now confirmed by price in "The Generals Have Followed Their Troops".

SMH / QQQ fragile

Semiconductor leadership vs Nasdaq

Upside β1.81

Downside β2.00

Asymmetry-0.19

Particip.0.90

horizon	21d	63d	126d	252d
up β	1.62	1.75	1.81	1.71
down β	2.17	1.98	2.00	1.87

β-z +1.85instab 47 partic 74fragil 100 conv A -1.33 · accelerating-down

downside-beta expansionnegative beta asymmetry

XSD / QQQ fragile

Equal-weight semis vs Nasdaq

Upside β1.91

Downside β2.12

Asymmetry-0.22

Particip.0.90

horizon	21d	63d	126d	252d
up β	2.12	1.71	1.91	1.90
down β	2.42	2.30	2.12	2.00

β-z +1.97instab 69 partic 94fragil 100 conv A -1.50 · accelerating-down

downside-beta expansionnegative beta asymmetrydownside-beta expansion (sharp)

XSD / SPY fragile

Equal-weight semis vs market

Upside β2.30

Downside β2.46

Asymmetry-0.16

Particip.0.94

horizon	21d	63d	126d	252d
up β	3.30	2.07	2.30	2.47
down β	3.33	2.98	2.46	2.55

β-z +2.25instab 95 partic 73fragil 91 conv A -0.60 · accelerating-down

downside-beta expansionnegative beta asymmetryupside participation deteriorating (sharp)downside-beta expansion (sharp)

IWM / SPY neutral

Small-cap participation

Upside β1.23

Downside β1.11

Asymmetry+0.12

Particip.1.11

horizon	21d	63d	126d	252d
up β	1.03	1.11	1.23	1.42
down β	1.34	1.03	1.11	1.18

β-z -0.76instab 28 partic 38fragil 44 conv A -0.10 · accelerating-down

downside-beta expansion (sharp)

RSP / SPY fragile

S&P 500 equal-weight participation

Upside β0.75

Downside β0.81

Asymmetry-0.06

Particip.0.93

horizon	21d	63d	126d	252d
up β	0.48	0.73	0.75	0.78
down β	0.82	0.71	0.81	0.76

β-z -1.89instab 49 partic 19fragil 59 conv A -1.00 · accelerating-down

upside-beta collapsenegative beta asymmetryupside participation deteriorating (sharp)

HYG / SPY neutral

Credit confirmation

Upside β0.27

Downside β0.21

Asymmetry+0.07

Particip.1.31

horizon	21d	63d	126d	252d
up β	0.20	0.28	0.27	0.29
down β	0.17	0.15	0.21	0.17

β-z +0.36instab 17 partic 46fragil 48 conv A -0.30 · flat

ARKK / QQQ decoupling

Speculative-growth appetite

Upside β1.50

Downside β1.35

Asymmetry+0.15

Particip.1.11

horizon	21d	63d	126d	252d
up β	1.32	1.38	1.50	1.39
down β	1.24	1.19	1.35	1.54

β-z -2.48instab 82 partic 61fragil 11 conv A +1.56 · accelerating-up

Participation breadth — by index (vs S&P 500)

lake 2382 names 29% losing upside participation, 40% gaining downside fragility rubin 101 names 15% losing upside participation, 62% gaining downside fragility agentic 100 names 55% losing upside participation, 32% gaining downside fragility halo 100 names 21% losing upside participation, 35% gaining downside fragility euro-ai 65 names 17% losing upside participation, 28% gaining downside fragility etfs 13 names 31% losing upside participation, 31% gaining downside fragility

Want a specific name? Open the X-Ray Directory → — search, sort and open any of 2761 names on the full toolbox vs SPY & Nasdaq.

How to read it

For each pair (asset vs benchmark), returns are split into the benchmark's up-days and down-days. Upside β is participation in rallies; downside β is vulnerability in selloffs; asymmetry (up − down) and the participation ratio (up ÷ down) say whether an asset captures more upside than downside. Read across 21 / 63 / 126 / 252 days: a sharp drop at the short horizon while the long looks fine is the early warning.

For information and discussion only — a reading of market internals, not investment advice. Scores are relative and descriptive. Cross-read with the Money Temperature regime.