Market Structure · Beta Instability

Market X-Ray

The chart can be fine while participation breaks down underneath. The X-Ray measures it directly — upside beta (on up-days), downside beta (on down-days), asymmetry and instability — across the key structure pairs and 343 names in our indices. Detecting the rotation before price makes it obvious.

vs S&P 500 34% losing upside participation, 40% gaining downside fragility

vs Nasdaq-100 41% losing upside participation, 25% gaining downside fragility

Updated daily · data as of 2026-08-04 · Participation fragile — fragility rising beneath the surface

Latest read The Generals Have Followed Their Troops — the breadth warning becomes price confirmation →

Toolboxes Daily Read → Beta Instability Breadth-of-Breadth · 55 Mixed participation → Ratio-Quality → Divergence Scanner → Alert Stack → Regime Baselines → Anomaly Score → Directory →

The pairs we watch — full scores

Each pair, decomposed on up-days and down-days separately. These are the published "Troops Leaving Before the Generals" set — now confirmed by price in "The Generals Have Followed Their Troops".

SMH / QQQ fragile

Semiconductor leadership vs Nasdaq

Upside β1.70

Downside β1.95

Asymmetry-0.25

Particip.0.87

horizon	21d	63d	126d	252d
up β	1.71	1.65	1.70	1.69
down β	1.34	1.96	1.95	1.95

β-z +1.77instab 37 partic 55fragil 95 conv A -1.36 · accelerating-up

downside-beta expansionnegative beta asymmetry

XSD / QQQ fragile

Equal-weight semis vs Nasdaq

Upside β1.78

Downside β2.23

Asymmetry-0.46

Particip.0.80

horizon	21d	63d	126d	252d
up β	2.05	1.78	1.78	1.90
down β	2.02	2.28	2.23	2.16

β-z +1.82instab 41 partic 77fragil 98 conv A -2.25 · reversing-up

downside-beta expansionnegative beta asymmetry

XSD / SPY decoupling

Equal-weight semis vs market

Upside β2.67

Downside β2.42

Asymmetry+0.25

Particip.1.10

horizon	21d	63d	126d	252d
up β	5.39	3.48	2.67	2.69
down β	2.36	2.19	2.42	2.43

β-z +2.35instab 82 partic 100fragil 88 conv A +0.71 · accelerating-up

downside-beta expansion

IWM / SPY distribution

Small-cap participation

Upside β1.03

Downside β1.08

Asymmetry-0.05

Particip.0.95

horizon	21d	63d	126d	252d
up β	1.07	0.80	1.03	1.25
down β	0.30	0.93	1.08	1.12

β-z -2.35instab 58 partic 27fragil 33 conv A -0.54 · flat

negative beta asymmetrybeta-adjusted underperformanceupside participation deteriorating (sharp)

RSP / SPY decoupling

S&P 500 equal-weight participation

Upside β0.62

Downside β0.81

Asymmetry-0.19

Particip.0.76

horizon	21d	63d	126d	252d
up β	0.15	0.35	0.62	0.70
down β	0.33	0.75	0.81	0.76

β-z -2.70instab 63 partic 2fragil 54 conv A -2.31 · accelerating-down

upside-beta collapsenegative beta asymmetryupside participation deteriorating (sharp)

HYG / SPY distribution

Credit confirmation

Upside β0.24

Downside β0.21

Asymmetry+0.03

Particip.1.15

horizon	21d	63d	126d	252d
up β	0.13	0.19	0.24	0.27
down β	0.17	0.19	0.21	0.19

β-z -0.68instab 17 partic 16fragil 48 conv A -0.68 · accelerating-down

upside-beta collapsebeta-adjusted underperformance

ARKK / QQQ decoupling

Speculative-growth appetite

Upside β1.47

Downside β1.26

Asymmetry+0.21

Particip.1.17

horizon	21d	63d	126d	252d
up β	1.77	1.48	1.47	1.38
down β	1.70	1.15	1.26	1.41

β-z -2.17instab 50 partic 58fragil 4 conv A +1.61 · flat

downside-beta expansion (sharp)

Participation breadth — by index (vs S&P 500)

lake 2366 names 35% losing upside participation, 39% gaining downside fragility rubin 123 names 11% losing upside participation, 62% gaining downside fragility halo 100 names 26% losing upside participation, 43% gaining downside fragility euro-ai 65 names 23% losing upside participation, 42% gaining downside fragility aw25 38 names 55% losing upside participation, 16% gaining downside fragility agentic 32 names 47% losing upside participation, 22% gaining downside fragility etfs 14 names 43% losing upside participation, 36% gaining downside fragility

Want a specific name? Open the X-Ray Directory → — search, sort and open any of 2738 names on the full toolbox vs SPY & Nasdaq.

How to read it

For each pair (asset vs benchmark), returns are split into the benchmark's up-days and down-days. Upside β is participation in rallies; downside β is vulnerability in selloffs; asymmetry (up − down) and the participation ratio (up ÷ down) say whether an asset captures more upside than downside. Read across 21 / 63 / 126 / 252 days: a sharp drop at the short horizon while the long looks fine is the early warning.

For information and discussion only — a reading of market internals, not investment advice. Scores are relative and descriptive. Cross-read with the Money Temperature regime.