Market X-Ray · Toolbox 4
Dynamic Divergence Scanner
The classic divergence is price making a new high while RSI does not. This is the market-structure version: the index rises, but equal-weight breadth, credit, small-caps and concentration don't confirm. Each relationship is scored on how unusually large the gap is versus its own history, how long it has persisted, and whether the other toolboxes agree — then rolled into one Global Divergence Risk Score and a regime read.
Updated daily · data as of 2026-11-06
By family
Alerts — non-confirmations & clusters
QQQ is weak over 21 days while QQQE/QQQ is improving (-16.8% gap) — a constructive (bullish) non-confirmation.
- QQQ -12.2% vs QQQE/QQQ +5.5% over 21d
- Gap -16.8% · z -2.72 · 21d
- 7d active · Worsening · confirmed by 2 modules
QQQ is weak over 21 days while QNXT/QTOP is improving (-22% gap) — a constructive (bullish) non-confirmation.
- QQQ -12.2% vs QNXT/QTOP +12.6% over 21d
- Gap -22% · z -3.01 · confirmed 21d & 63d
- 7d active · Worsening · confirmed by 1 module
SPY is weak over 21 days while RSP/SPY is improving (-11.5% gap) — a constructive (bullish) non-confirmation.
- SPY -5% vs RSP/SPY +7.3% over 21d
- Gap -11.5% · z -2.5 · confirmed 21d & 63d
- 2d active · Worsening · confirmed by 2 modules
XLK is weak over 21 days while IGV/XLK is improving (-23.1% gap) — a constructive (bullish) non-confirmation.
- XLK -16.7% vs IGV/XLK +8.3% over 21d
- Gap -23.1% · z -2.51 · confirmed 21d & 63d
- 7d active · Worsening · confirmed by 1 module
QQQ is weak over 21 days while QTOP/QNXT is improving (-22% gap) — a constructive (bullish) non-confirmation.
- QQQ -12.2% vs QTOP/QNXT -11.2% over 21d
- Gap -22% · z -3.01 · confirmed 21d & 63d
- 7d active · Worsening
7 of 7 breadth relationships are diverging at once — a clustered, not isolated, non-confirmation.
- 7 active divergences
- Family score 83/100 (Critical divergence)
SPY is weak over 21 days while SPXT/SPY is improving (-11% gap) — a constructive (bullish) non-confirmation.
- SPY -5% vs SPXT/SPY +6.7% over 21d
- Gap -11% · z -2.55 · confirmed 21d & 63d
- 2d active · Worsening · confirmed by 2 modules
SPY is weak over 21 days while IWM/SPY is improving (-8.4% gap) — a constructive (bullish) non-confirmation.
- SPY -5% vs IWM/SPY +3.8% over 21d
- Gap -8.4% · z -2.3 · 21d
- 2d active · Worsening · confirmed by 2 modules
QQQ is weak over 21 days while QQQ/QQQE is improving (-16.8% gap) — a constructive (bullish) non-confirmation.
- QQQ -12.2% vs QQQ/QQQE -5.2% over 21d
- Gap -16.8% · z -2.72 · 21d
- 7d active · Worsening
3 of 3 concentration relationships are diverging at once — a clustered, not isolated, non-confirmation.
- 3 active divergences
- Family score 79/100 (Strong divergence)
Every relationship — scanned
| Divergence | Dir | Severity | Gap | z | Days | State | Confirm |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nasdaq breadth divergence QQQ vs QQQE/QQQ | ▲ bull | 89 | -16.8% | -2.72 | 7 | Worsening | 2× |
| Nasdaq lower-70 divergence QQQ vs QNXT/QTOP | ▲ bull | 89 | -22% | -3.01 | 7 | Worsening | 1× |
| S&P 500 breadth divergence SPY vs RSP/SPY | ▲ bull | 85 | -11.5% | -2.5 | 2 | Worsening | 2× |
| Software divergence XLK vs IGV/XLK | ▲ bull | 85 | -23.1% | -2.51 | 7 | Worsening | 1× |
| Top-30 Nasdaq concentration QQQ vs QTOP/QNXT | ▲ bull | 83 | -22% | -3.01 | 7 | Worsening | — |
| S&P ex-tech divergence SPY vs SPXT/SPY | ▲ bull | 82 | -11% | -2.55 | 2 | Worsening | 2× |
| Small-cap divergence SPY vs IWM/SPY | ▲ bull | 80 | -8.4% | -2.3 | 2 | Worsening | 2× |
| Nasdaq concentration QQQ vs QQQ/QQQE | ▲ bull | 80 | -16.8% | -2.72 | 7 | Worsening | — |
| AI divergence XLK vs AIQ/XLK | ▲ bull | 80 | -20% | -3.23 | 5 | Worsening | 1× |
| S&P ex-Mag-7 divergence SPY vs XMAG/SPY | ▲ bull | 76 | -6.5% | -1.76 | 2 | Worsening | 2× |
| Mid-cap divergence SPY vs MDY/SPY | ▲ bull | 75 | -8.6% | -2.09 | 2 | Worsening | 2× |
| S&P concentration SPY vs SPY/RSP | ▲ bull | 75 | -11.5% | -2.5 | 2 | Worsening | — |
| Credit divergence SPY vs HYG/LQD | · none | 0 | -3.3% | -1.28 | — | No divergence | 1× |
| High-beta divergence SPY vs SPHB/SPLV | · none | 0 | +20.3% | 2.88 | — | No divergence | 1× |
| Small-cap upside-beta failure SPY vs β IWM/SPY | · none | 0 | — | — | — | No divergence | 1× |
| Nasdaq breadth beta failure QQQ vs β QQQE/QQQ | · none | 0 | — | — | — | No divergence | 1× |
| Credit beta failure SPY vs β HYG/SPY | · none | 0 | — | — | — | No divergence | — |
| Breadth-momentum divergence SPY vs Breadth-of-Breadth | · none | 0 | — | — | — | No divergence | — |
| Consumer risk divergence SPY vs XLY/XLP | · none | 0 | -2.5% | -1.16 | — | No divergence | 1× |
| Cyclical divergence SPY vs XLI/XLU | · none | 0 | +3.3% | 0.89 | — | No divergence | 1× |
| Semiconductor divergence QQQ vs SMH/XLK | · none | 0 | -4.3% | -0.73 | — | No divergence | 2× |
| Small-cap downside-beta warning SPY vs β IWM/SPY | · none | 0 | — | — | — | No divergence | 1× |
| Semis leadership-exhaustion beta SMH vs β SMH/XLK | · none | 0 | — | — | — | No divergence | 1× |
| S&P price-momentum divergence SPY vs SPY momentum | · none | 0 | — | — | — | No divergence | — |
| Nasdaq vol-adjusted divergence QQQ vs QQQ momentum | · none | 0 | — | — | — | No divergence | — |
| Semis efficiency divergence SMH vs SMH momentum | · none | 0 | — | — | — | No divergence | — |
How to read it
For each rule a primary price index is compared with a confirmation structure series. Returns are direction-normalised (a rising concentration ratio counts as bearish), so the divergence gap = primary return − normalised confirmation return is positive whenever the headline is outrunning what's underneath. The gap is z-scored against its own 252-day history; severity blends magnitude (vs a horizon target), that historical extremeness, persistence (days the divergence has held), importance, 21d/63d agreement, and how many other toolboxes (Breadth-of-Breadth, Ratio-Quality, Beta-Instability) confirm. Bearish = index up while structure fails; bullish = index weak while structure quietly improves. NH marks a new-high non-confirmation.
For information and discussion only — a reading of market internals, not investment advice. Thresholds are uncalibrated pending the planned backtest. Cross-reads with Breadth-of-Breadth, Ratio-Quality and the Beta-Instability X-Ray.
FAQ · from the current data · as of 2026-11-06
Quick answers
What does the Dynamic Divergence Scanner track?
It scans whether the headline index (S&P 500 / Nasdaq-100) is trending one way while the structure beneath it — breadth, credit, small-caps, concentration — trends the other. Each relationship is severity-scored on how unusual the gap is versus its own history, how long it has persisted, and whether other toolboxes agree, then rolled into one Global Divergence Risk Score.
What is the Global Divergence Risk Score right now?
As of 2026-11-06, the Global Divergence Risk Score is 43, labeled "mild", in a "Leadership exhaustion" regime.
How many divergences are currently active?
As of 2026-11-06, 12 divergences are active — 0 bearish (index up, structure not confirming) and 12 bullish (index weak, structure improving).
How is a divergence’s severity scored?
The divergence gap (primary index return minus direction-normalised confirmation return) is z-scored against its own 252-day history. Severity blends that magnitude and historical extremeness with persistence (days active), importance, 21-day/63-day agreement, and how many other toolboxes — Breadth-of-Breadth, Ratio-Quality, Beta-Instability — confirm the same read.