Market X-Ray · Toolbox 4
Dynamic Divergence Scanner
The classic divergence is price making a new high while RSI does not. This is the market-structure version: the index rises, but equal-weight breadth, credit, small-caps and concentration don't confirm. Each relationship is scored on how unusually large the gap is versus its own history, how long it has persisted, and whether the other toolboxes agree — then rolled into one Global Divergence Risk Score and a regime read.
Updated daily · data as of 2026-06-08
By family
Alerts — non-confirmations & clusters
QQQ has risen over 63 days while QQQE/QQQ has not confirmed (+21.5% gap) — Nasdaq-100 strength is not confirmed by the average Nasdaq stock.
- QQQ +18% vs QQQE/QQQ -2.9% over 63d
- Gap +21.5% · z 0.92 · 63d
- 0d active · Emerging · confirmed by 1 module
XLK has risen over 21 days while IGV/XLK has not confirmed (+11.9% gap) — Software is not confirming broad-tech strength.
- XLK +8.5% vs IGV/XLK -3% over 21d
- Gap +11.9% · z 0.31 · confirmed 21d & 63d
- 1d active · Emerging · confirmed by 1 module
SPY has risen over 63 days while SPXT/SPY has not confirmed (+17% gap) — Non-tech S&P 500 is not keeping pace with the headline.
- SPY +9.3% vs SPXT/SPY -6.6% over 63d
- Gap +17% · z 1.03 · 63d
- 0d active · Emerging · confirmed by 1 module
QQQ has risen over 63 days while QNXT/QTOP has not confirmed (+25.9% gap) — The lower 70 Nasdaq-100 names are not confirming the top 30.
- QQQ +18% vs QNXT/QTOP -6.3% over 63d
- Gap +25.9% · z 1.03 · 63d
- 0d active · Emerging
XLK has risen over 21 days while AIQ/XLK has not confirmed (+9.7% gap) — The AI basket is not confirming broad-tech leadership.
- XLK +8.5% vs AIQ/XLK -1% over 21d
- Gap +9.7% · z 0.8 · confirmed 21d & 63d
- 2d active · Active
5 of 7 breadth relationships are diverging at once — a clustered, not isolated, non-confirmation.
- 5 active divergences
- Family score 57/100 (Diverging)
SPY has risen over 63 days while RSP/SPY has not confirmed (+13.8% gap) — S&P 500 headline strength is not confirmed by the average (equal-weight) stock.
- SPY +9.3% vs RSP/SPY -4% over 63d
- Gap +13.8% · z 0.65 · 63d
- 0d active · Emerging
QQQ has risen over 63 days while QTOP/QNXT has not confirmed (+25.9% gap) — The top-30 Nasdaq names are increasingly carrying the index.
- QQQ +18% vs QTOP/QNXT +6.7% over 63d
- Gap +25.9% · z 1.03 · 63d
- 0d active · Emerging
SPY has risen over 63 days while MDY/SPY has not confirmed (+10.9% gap) — Mid-caps are not confirming large-cap strength.
- SPY +9.3% vs MDY/SPY -1.4% over 63d
- Gap +10.9% · z 0.45 · 63d
- 0d active · Emerging · confirmed by 1 module
3 of 3 concentration relationships are diverging at once — a clustered, not isolated, non-confirmation.
- 3 active divergences
- Family score 54/100 (Diverging)
Every relationship — scanned
| Divergence | Dir | Severity | Gap | z | Days | State | Confirm |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nasdaq breadth divergence QQQ vs QQQE/QQQ | ▼ bear | 61 | +21.5% | 0.92 | 0 | Emerging | 1× |
| Software divergence XLK vs IGV/XLK | ▼ bear | 60 | +11.9% | 0.31 | 1 | Emerging | 1× |
| S&P ex-tech divergence SPY vs SPXT/SPY | ▼ bear | 59 | +17% | 1.03 | 0 | Emerging | 1× |
| Nasdaq lower-70 divergence QQQ vs QNXT/QTOP | ▼ bear | 58 | +25.9% | 1.03 | 0 | Emerging | — |
| AI divergence XLK vs AIQ/XLK | ▼ bear | 58 | +9.7% | 0.8 | 2 | Active | — |
| S&P 500 breadth divergence SPY vs RSP/SPY | ▼ bear | 55 | +13.8% | 0.65 | 0 | Emerging | — |
| Top-30 Nasdaq concentration QQQ vs QTOP/QNXT | ▼ bear | 55 | +25.9% | 1.03 | 0 | Emerging | — |
| Mid-cap divergence SPY vs MDY/SPY | ▼ bear | 54 | +10.9% | 0.45 | 0 | Emerging | 1× |
| Nasdaq concentration QQQ vs QQQ/QQQE | ▼ bear | 54 | +21.5% | 0.92 | 0 | Emerging | — |
| S&P concentration SPY vs SPY/RSP | ▼ bear | 52 | +13.8% | 0.65 | 0 | Emerging | — |
| S&P ex-Mag-7 divergence SPY vs XMAG/SPY | · none | 0 | -1.4% | -0.94 | — | No divergence | — |
| Small-cap divergence SPY vs IWM/SPY | · none | 0 | +1.4% | 0 | — | No divergence | 1× |
| Credit divergence SPY vs HYG/LQD | · none | 0 | +0.7% | -0.41 | — | No divergence | 1× |
| High-beta divergence SPY vs SPHB/SPLV | · none | 0 | -4.5% | -0.81 | — | No divergence | — |
| Consumer risk divergence SPY vs XLY/XLP | · none | 0 | +3.8% | 0.45 | — | No divergence | 1× |
| Cyclical divergence SPY vs XLI/XLU | · none | 0 | -2.3% | -0.98 | — | No divergence | 1× |
| Semiconductor divergence QQQ vs SMH/XLK | · none | 0 | +1% | 0.33 | — | No divergence | 1× |
How to read it
For each rule a primary price index is compared with a confirmation structure series. Returns are direction-normalised (a rising concentration ratio counts as bearish), so the divergence gap = primary return − normalised confirmation return is positive whenever the headline is outrunning what's underneath. The gap is z-scored against its own 252-day history; severity blends magnitude (vs a horizon target), that historical extremeness, persistence (days the divergence has held), importance, 21d/63d agreement, and how many other toolboxes (Breadth-of-Breadth, Ratio-Quality, Beta-Instability) confirm. Bearish = index up while structure fails; bullish = index weak while structure quietly improves. NH marks a new-high non-confirmation.
For information and discussion only — a reading of market internals, not investment advice. Thresholds are uncalibrated pending the planned backtest. Cross-reads with Breadth-of-Breadth, Ratio-Quality and the Beta-Instability X-Ray.