Market X-Ray · Toolbox 4

Dynamic Divergence Scanner

The classic divergence is price making a new high while RSI does not. This is the market-structure version: the index rises, but equal-weight breadth, credit, small-caps and concentration don't confirm. Each relationship is scored on how unusually large the gap is versus its own history, how long it has persisted, and whether the other toolboxes agree — then rolled into one Global Divergence Risk Score and a regime read.

Global Divergence Risk 61 moderate

Regime Narrow advance — breadth diverging SPY +1.8% · QQQ +4.5% 21d

Updated daily · data as of 2026-10-08

Active divergences 20 of 26 tracked

Bearish 20 index up, structure not confirming

Bullish 0 index weak, structure improving

New-high non-confirm 0 index high, breadth not

By family

Breadth 62 diverging 7/7 active

Concentration 63 diverging 3/3 active

Risk appetite 45 diverging 1/4 active

Tech internal 70 strong 2/3 active

Beta 60 diverging 4/5 active

Momentum 84 critical 3/4 active

Alerts — non-confirmations & clusters

S&P price-momentum divergence — bearish critical · 86

SPY is up over 21d but the move is inefficient (choppy) — The S&P is higher but the move is inefficient — a choppy, low-quality grind rather than a clean trend.

21d trend efficiency 16/100 · 63d 8
SPY +1.8% / 21d
Severity 86/100 (critical) · Strong · confirmed by 1 module

Breadth-momentum divergence — bearish critical · 84

SPY is up over 21d but breadth momentum is rolling over — The S&P is rising while the Breadth-of-Breadth score is deteriorating — participation momentum is rolling over beneath the index.

Breadth score 25/100
Breadth trend deteriorating
SPY +1.8% / 21d
Severity 84/100 (critical) · Strong · confirmed by 1 module

Momentum divergence cluster critical · 84

3 of 4 momentum relationships are diverging at once — a clustered, not isolated, non-confirmation.

3 active divergences
Family score 84/100 (Critical divergence)

Semis efficiency divergence — bearish critical · 81

SMH is up over 21d but the move is inefficient (choppy) — Semis are higher but on a noisy, low-efficiency path — leadership without clean momentum.

21d trend efficiency 17/100 · 63d 1
SMH +5.7% / 21d
Severity 81/100 (critical) · Strong · confirmed by 1 module

Nasdaq breadth divergence — bearish critical · 80

QQQ has risen over 21 days while QQQE/QQQ has not confirmed (+7% gap) — Nasdaq-100 strength is not confirmed by the average Nasdaq stock.

QQQ +4.5% vs QQQE/QQQ -2.3% over 21d
Gap +7% · z 0.71 · confirmed 21d & 63d
14d active · Persistent · confirmed by 2 modules

Nasdaq lower-70 divergence — bearish strong · 80

QQQ has risen over 21 days while QNXT/QTOP has not confirmed (+8.4% gap) — The lower 70 Nasdaq-100 names are not confirming the top 30.

QQQ +4.5% vs QNXT/QTOP -3.7% over 21d
Gap +8.4% · z 0.69 · confirmed 21d & 63d
14d active · Persistent · confirmed by 2 modules

Nasdaq concentration — bearish strong · 74

QQQ has risen over 21 days while QQQ/QQQE has not confirmed (+7% gap) — Nasdaq gains are concentrating in the largest names.

QQQ +4.5% vs QQQ/QQQE +2.4% over 21d
Gap +7% · z 0.71 · confirmed 21d & 63d
14d active · Persistent · confirmed by 1 module

Top-30 Nasdaq concentration — bearish strong · 74

QQQ has risen over 21 days while QTOP/QNXT has not confirmed (+8.4% gap) — The top-30 Nasdaq names are increasingly carrying the index.

QQQ +4.5% vs QTOP/QNXT +3.8% over 21d
Gap +8.4% · z 0.69 · confirmed 21d & 63d
14d active · Persistent · confirmed by 1 module

Small-cap upside-beta failure — bearish strong · 74

SPY is rising over 21d while IWM/SPY upside participation is fading — The S&P is rising but small-caps’ upside (up-day) beta is fading — they are not capturing the advance.

Upside-β participation 0/100
Sharp up-β drop 0.26
SPY +1.8% / 21d
Severity 74/100 (strong) · Strong · confirmed by 2 modules

Concentration divergence cluster strong · 63

3 of 3 concentration relationships are diverging at once — a clustered, not isolated, non-confirmation.

3 active divergences
Family score 63/100 (Diverging)

Breadth divergence cluster strong · 62

7 of 7 breadth relationships are diverging at once — a clustered, not isolated, non-confirmation.

7 active divergences
Family score 62/100 (Diverging)

Beta divergence cluster strong · 60

4 of 5 beta relationships are diverging at once — a clustered, not isolated, non-confirmation.

4 active divergences
Family score 60/100 (Diverging)

Every relationship — scanned

Divergence	Dir	Severity	Gap	z	Days	State	Confirm
S&P price-momentum divergence SPY vs SPY momentum	▼ bear	86	—	—	0	Strong	1×
Breadth-momentum divergence SPY vs Breadth-of-Breadth	▼ bear	84	—	—	0	Strong	1×
Semis efficiency divergence SMH vs SMH momentum	▼ bear	81	—	—	0	Strong	1×
Nasdaq breadth divergence QQQ vs QQQE/QQQ	▼ bear	80	+7%	0.71	14	Persistent	2×
Nasdaq lower-70 divergence QQQ vs QNXT/QTOP	▼ bear	80	+8.4%	0.69	14	Persistent	2×
Small-cap upside-beta failure SPY vs β IWM/SPY	▼ bear	74	—	—	0	Strong	2×
Nasdaq concentration QQQ vs QQQ/QQQE	▼ bear	74	+7%	0.71	14	Persistent	1×
Top-30 Nasdaq concentration QQQ vs QTOP/QNXT	▼ bear	74	+8.4%	0.69	14	Persistent	1×
Small-cap divergence SPY vs IWM/SPY	▼ bear	73	+12.3%	1.62	0	Strong	3×
AI divergence XLK vs AIQ/XLK	▼ bear	73	+8.6%	0.74	15	Persistent	1×
Semiconductor divergence QQQ vs SMH/XLK	▼ bear	67	+10.6%	1.24	0	Strong	2×
Small-cap downside-beta warning SPY vs β IWM/SPY	▼ bear	62	—	—	0	Active	2×
Semis leadership-exhaustion beta SMH vs β SMH/XLK	▼ bear	61	—	—	0	Active	2×
Mid-cap divergence SPY vs MDY/SPY	▼ bear	57	+9.1%	0.53	0	Emerging	3×
S&P 500 breadth divergence SPY vs RSP/SPY	▼ bear	50	+6.4%	0.18	0	Emerging	3×
S&P ex-Mag-7 divergence SPY vs XMAG/SPY	▼ bear	46	+5.9%	0.25	0	Emerging	2×
S&P ex-tech divergence SPY vs SPXT/SPY	▼ bear	46	+6.4%	0.07	0	Emerging	3×
Credit beta failure SPY vs β HYG/SPY	▼ bear	45	—	—	0	Active	1×
Consumer risk divergence SPY vs XLY/XLP	▼ bear	45	+7.4%	0.16	0	Emerging	1×
S&P concentration SPY vs SPY/RSP	▼ bear	40	+6.4%	0.18	0	Emerging	1×
Credit divergence SPY vs HYG/LQD	· none	0	+1.4%	0.14	—	No divergence	—
High-beta divergence SPY vs SPHB/SPLV	· none	0	-3.4%	-0.44	—	No divergence	—
Nasdaq breadth beta failure QQQ vs β QQQE/QQQ	· none	0	—	—	—	No divergence	2×
Cyclical divergence SPY vs XLI/XLU	· none	0	-0.2%	-0.09	—	No divergence	1×
Software divergence XLK vs IGV/XLK	· none	0	+3.2%	-0.27	—	No divergence	—
Nasdaq vol-adjusted divergence QQQ vs QQQ momentum	· none	0	—	—	—	No divergence	1×

How to read it

For each rule a primary price index is compared with a confirmation structure series. Returns are direction-normalised (a rising concentration ratio counts as bearish), so the divergence gap = primary return − normalised confirmation return is positive whenever the headline is outrunning what's underneath. The gap is z-scored against its own 252-day history; severity blends magnitude (vs a horizon target), that historical extremeness, persistence (days the divergence has held), importance, 21d/63d agreement, and how many other toolboxes (Breadth-of-Breadth, Ratio-Quality, Beta-Instability) confirm. Bearish = index up while structure fails; bullish = index weak while structure quietly improves. NH marks a new-high non-confirmation.

For information and discussion only — a reading of market internals, not investment advice. Thresholds are uncalibrated pending the planned backtest. Cross-reads with Breadth-of-Breadth, Ratio-Quality and the Beta-Instability X-Ray.

FAQ · from the current data · as of 2026-10-08

Quick answers

What does the Dynamic Divergence Scanner track?

It scans whether the headline index (S&P 500 / Nasdaq-100) is trending one way while the structure beneath it — breadth, credit, small-caps, concentration — trends the other. Each relationship is severity-scored on how unusual the gap is versus its own history, how long it has persisted, and whether other toolboxes agree, then rolled into one Global Divergence Risk Score.

What is the Global Divergence Risk Score right now?

As of 2026-10-08, the Global Divergence Risk Score is 61, labeled "moderate", in a "Narrow advance — breadth diverging" regime.

How many divergences are currently active?

As of 2026-10-08, 20 divergences are active — 20 bearish (index up, structure not confirming) and 0 bullish (index weak, structure improving).

How is a divergence’s severity scored?

The divergence gap (primary index return minus direction-normalised confirmation return) is z-scored against its own 252-day history. Severity blends that magnitude and historical extremeness with persistence (days active), importance, 21-day/63-day agreement, and how many other toolboxes — Breadth-of-Breadth, Ratio-Quality, Beta-Instability — confirm the same read.