Market X-Ray · Toolbox 4
Dynamic Divergence Scanner
The classic divergence is price making a new high while RSI does not. This is the market-structure version: the index rises, but equal-weight breadth, credit, small-caps and concentration don't confirm. Each relationship is scored on how unusually large the gap is versus its own history, how long it has persisted, and whether the other toolboxes agree — then rolled into one Global Divergence Risk Score and a regime read.
Updated daily · data as of 2026-10-16
By family
Alerts — non-confirmations & clusters
SPY is up over 21d but the move is inefficient (choppy) — The S&P is higher but the move is inefficient — a choppy, low-quality grind rather than a clean trend.
- 21d trend efficiency 3/100 · 63d 9
- SPY +0.3% / 21d
- Severity 93/100 (critical) · Strong · confirmed by 1 module
SPY is rising over 21d while IWM/SPY upside participation is fading — The S&P is rising but small-caps’ upside (up-day) beta is fading — they are not capturing the advance.
- Upside-β participation 0/100
- Sharp up-β drop 0.47
- SPY +0.3% / 21d
- Severity 87/100 (critical) · Strong · confirmed by 2 modules
SPY is up over 21d but breadth momentum is rolling over — The S&P is rising while the Breadth-of-Breadth score is deteriorating — participation momentum is rolling over beneath the index.
- Breadth score 23/100
- Breadth trend deteriorating
- SPY +0.3% / 21d
- Severity 85/100 (critical) · Strong · confirmed by 1 module
SPY has risen over 63 days while IWM/SPY has not confirmed (+14.6% gap) — Large-cap strength is not confirmed by small-cap participation.
- SPY +3.1% vs IWM/SPY -10% over 63d
- Gap +14.6% · z 1.87 · 63d
- 0d active · Strong · confirmed by 3 modules
QQQ has risen over 63 days while SMH/XLK has not confirmed (+10.5% gap) — Semis — the cycle tell — are not confirming Nasdaq strength.
- QQQ +2.1% vs SMH/XLK -7.6% over 63d
- Gap +10.5% · z 1.18 · 63d
- 0d active · Strong · confirmed by 2 modules
3 of 5 beta relationships are diverging at once — a clustered, not isolated, non-confirmation.
- 3 active divergences
- Family score 66/100 (Strong divergence)
SPY is rising over 21d while IWM/SPY downside beta is rising — Small-cap downside beta is rising while the index holds — latent fragility beneath a stable tape.
- Downside-β fragility 23/100
- Down-β sharp rise 0.55
- SPY +0.3% / 21d (holding)
- Severity 64/100 (moderate) · Active · confirmed by 2 modules
SPY has risen over 63 days while MDY/SPY has not confirmed (+9.8% gap) — Mid-caps are not confirming large-cap strength.
- SPY +3.1% vs MDY/SPY -6.1% over 63d
- Gap +9.8% · z 0.63 · 63d
- 0d active · Emerging · confirmed by 3 modules
SPY has risen over 63 days while XLY/XLP has not confirmed (+9% gap) — Discretionary is not outperforming staples — a cautious consumer.
- SPY +3.1% vs XLY/XLP -5.4% over 63d
- Gap +9% · z 0.38 · 63d
- 0d active · Worsening · confirmed by 1 module
6 of 7 breadth relationships are diverging at once — a clustered, not isolated, non-confirmation.
- 6 active divergences
- Family score 50/100 (Diverging)
Every relationship — scanned
| Divergence | Dir | Severity | Gap | z | Days | State | Confirm |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P price-momentum divergence SPY vs SPY momentum | ▼ bear | 93 | — | — | 0 | Strong | 1× |
| Small-cap upside-beta failure SPY vs β IWM/SPY | ▼ bear | 87 | — | — | 0 | Strong | 2× |
| Breadth-momentum divergence SPY vs Breadth-of-Breadth | ▼ bear | 85 | — | — | 0 | Strong | 1× |
| Small-cap divergence SPY vs IWM/SPY | ▼ bear | 75 | +14.6% | 1.87 | 0 | Strong | 3× |
| Semiconductor divergence QQQ vs SMH/XLK | ▼ bear | 66 | +10.5% | 1.18 | 0 | Strong | 2× |
| Small-cap downside-beta warning SPY vs β IWM/SPY | ▼ bear | 64 | — | — | 0 | Active | 2× |
| Mid-cap divergence SPY vs MDY/SPY | ▼ bear | 60 | +9.8% | 0.63 | 0 | Emerging | 3× |
| Consumer risk divergence SPY vs XLY/XLP | ▼ bear | 51 | +9% | 0.38 | 0 | Worsening | 1× |
| Credit beta failure SPY vs β HYG/SPY | ▼ bear | 46 | — | — | 0 | Active | 1× |
| Nasdaq breadth divergence QQQ vs QQQE/QQQ | ▼ bear | 43 | +3.7% | -0.25 | 0 | Resolving | 3× |
| S&P 500 breadth divergence SPY vs RSP/SPY | ▼ bear | 42 | +5.1% | 0.02 | 0 | Resolving | 2× |
| S&P ex-Mag-7 divergence SPY vs XMAG/SPY | ▼ bear | 41 | +4.7% | 0.06 | 0 | Resolving | 2× |
| S&P ex-tech divergence SPY vs SPXT/SPY | ▼ bear | 39 | +4.7% | -0.15 | 0 | Resolving | 2× |
| S&P concentration SPY vs SPY/RSP | ▼ bear | 35 | +5.1% | 0.02 | 0 | Resolving | 1× |
| Nasdaq concentration QQQ vs QQQ/QQQE | ▼ bear | 33 | +3.7% | -0.25 | 0 | Resolving | 1× |
| Nasdaq lower-70 divergence QQQ vs QNXT/QTOP | · none | 0 | -3.7% | -0.84 | — | No divergence | 1× |
| Credit divergence SPY vs HYG/LQD | · none | 0 | +1% | 0.03 | — | No divergence | 1× |
| High-beta divergence SPY vs SPHB/SPLV | · none | 0 | +6.9% | 1.58 | — | No divergence | 1× |
| Nasdaq breadth beta failure QQQ vs β QQQE/QQQ | · none | 0 | — | — | — | No divergence | 2× |
| Top-30 Nasdaq concentration QQQ vs QTOP/QNXT | · none | 0 | -3.7% | -0.84 | — | No divergence | 1× |
| Cyclical divergence SPY vs XLI/XLU | · none | 0 | +2.8% | 0.81 | — | No divergence | 1× |
| Semis leadership-exhaustion beta SMH vs β SMH/XLK | · none | 0 | — | — | — | No divergence | 2× |
| Software divergence XLK vs IGV/XLK | · none | 0 | -3.3% | -0.85 | — | No divergence | 1× |
| AI divergence XLK vs AIQ/XLK | · none | 0 | -1% | -0.62 | — | No divergence | 1× |
| Nasdaq vol-adjusted divergence QQQ vs QQQ momentum | · none | 0 | — | — | — | No divergence | 1× |
| Semis efficiency divergence SMH vs SMH momentum | · none | 0 | — | — | — | No divergence | 1× |
How to read it
For each rule a primary price index is compared with a confirmation structure series. Returns are direction-normalised (a rising concentration ratio counts as bearish), so the divergence gap = primary return − normalised confirmation return is positive whenever the headline is outrunning what's underneath. The gap is z-scored against its own 252-day history; severity blends magnitude (vs a horizon target), that historical extremeness, persistence (days the divergence has held), importance, 21d/63d agreement, and how many other toolboxes (Breadth-of-Breadth, Ratio-Quality, Beta-Instability) confirm. Bearish = index up while structure fails; bullish = index weak while structure quietly improves. NH marks a new-high non-confirmation.
For information and discussion only — a reading of market internals, not investment advice. Thresholds are uncalibrated pending the planned backtest. Cross-reads with Breadth-of-Breadth, Ratio-Quality and the Beta-Instability X-Ray.
FAQ · from the current data · as of 2026-10-16
Quick answers
What does the Dynamic Divergence Scanner track?
It scans whether the headline index (S&P 500 / Nasdaq-100) is trending one way while the structure beneath it — breadth, credit, small-caps, concentration — trends the other. Each relationship is severity-scored on how unusual the gap is versus its own history, how long it has persisted, and whether other toolboxes agree, then rolled into one Global Divergence Risk Score.
What is the Global Divergence Risk Score right now?
As of 2026-10-16, the Global Divergence Risk Score is 54, labeled "moderate", in a "Leadership exhaustion" regime.
How many divergences are currently active?
As of 2026-10-16, 15 divergences are active — 15 bearish (index up, structure not confirming) and 0 bullish (index weak, structure improving).
How is a divergence’s severity scored?
The divergence gap (primary index return minus direction-normalised confirmation return) is z-scored against its own 252-day history. Severity blends that magnitude and historical extremeness with persistence (days active), importance, 21-day/63-day agreement, and how many other toolboxes — Breadth-of-Breadth, Ratio-Quality, Beta-Instability — confirm the same read.