Market X-Ray · Toolbox 4
Dynamic Divergence Scanner
The classic divergence is price making a new high while RSI does not. This is the market-structure version: the index rises, but equal-weight breadth, credit, small-caps and concentration don't confirm. Each relationship is scored on how unusually large the gap is versus its own history, how long it has persisted, and whether the other toolboxes agree — then rolled into one Global Divergence Risk Score and a regime read.
Updated daily · data as of 2026-07-17
By family
Alerts — non-confirmations & clusters
QQQ is weak over 21 days while QQQE/QQQ is improving (-6.3% gap) — a constructive (bullish) non-confirmation.
- QQQ -4.6% vs QQQE/QQQ +1.8% over 21d
- Gap -6.3% · z -1.51 · 21d
- 2d active · Worsening · confirmed by 2 modules
XLK is weak over 21 days while IGV/XLK is improving (-12.5% gap) — a constructive (bullish) non-confirmation.
- XLK -5.7% vs IGV/XLK +7.7% over 21d
- Gap -12.5% · z -2.28 · 21d
- 2d active · Worsening · confirmed by 1 module
QQQ is weak over 21 days while QQQ/QQQE is improving (-6.3% gap) — a constructive (bullish) non-confirmation.
- QQQ -4.6% vs QQQ/QQQE -1.7% over 21d
- Gap -6.3% · z -1.51 · 21d
- 2d active · Worsening
SPY has risen over 63 days while XLY/XLP has not confirmed (+13.8% gap) — Discretionary is not outperforming staples — a cautious consumer.
- SPY +6.2% vs XLY/XLP -6.7% over 63d
- Gap +13.8% · z 1.37 · 63d
- 0d active · Worsening · confirmed by 1 module
XLK has risen over 63 days while AIQ/XLK has not confirmed (+21.9% gap) — The AI basket is not confirming broad-tech leadership.
- XLK +15.6% vs AIQ/XLK -5.1% over 63d
- Gap +21.9% · z 0.69 · 63d
- 0d active · Emerging · confirmed by 1 module
SPY has risen over 63 days while SPXT/SPY has not confirmed (+9.1% gap) — Non-tech S&P 500 is not keeping pace with the headline.
- SPY +6.2% vs SPXT/SPY -2.7% over 63d
- Gap +9.1% · z 0.11 · 63d
- 0d active · Resolving
Every relationship — scanned
| Divergence | Dir | Severity | Gap | z | Days | State | Confirm |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nasdaq breadth divergence QQQ vs QQQE/QQQ | ▲ bull | 74 | -6.3% | -1.51 | 2 | Worsening | 2× |
| Software divergence XLK vs IGV/XLK | ▲ bull | 72 | -12.5% | -2.28 | 2 | Worsening | 1× |
| Nasdaq concentration QQQ vs QQQ/QQQE | ▲ bull | 64 | -6.3% | -1.51 | 2 | Worsening | — |
| Consumer risk divergence SPY vs XLY/XLP | ▼ bear | 63 | +13.8% | 1.37 | 0 | Worsening | 1× |
| AI divergence XLK vs AIQ/XLK | ▼ bear | 55 | +21.9% | 0.69 | 0 | Emerging | 1× |
| S&P ex-tech divergence SPY vs SPXT/SPY | ▼ bear | 44 | +9.1% | 0.11 | 0 | Resolving | — |
| S&P 500 breadth divergence SPY vs RSP/SPY | · none | 0 | -2.3% | -0.86 | — | No divergence | 1× |
| S&P ex-Mag-7 divergence SPY vs XMAG/SPY | · none | 0 | -0.4% | -0.48 | — | No divergence | — |
| Nasdaq lower-70 divergence QQQ vs QNXT/QTOP | · none | 0 | -4.3% | -1.1 | — | No divergence | 1× |
| Small-cap divergence SPY vs IWM/SPY | · none | 0 | -2% | -0.7 | — | No divergence | — |
| Credit divergence SPY vs HYG/LQD | · none | 0 | -1.7% | -1.02 | — | No divergence | 1× |
| High-beta divergence SPY vs SPHB/SPLV | · none | 0 | +10.1% | 2.78 | — | No divergence | 1× |
| Small-cap upside-beta failure SPY vs β IWM/SPY | · none | 0 | — | — | — | No divergence | — |
| Nasdaq breadth beta failure QQQ vs β QQQE/QQQ | · none | 0 | — | — | — | No divergence | 1× |
| Credit beta failure SPY vs β HYG/SPY | · none | 0 | — | — | — | No divergence | — |
| Breadth-momentum divergence SPY vs Breadth-of-Breadth | · none | 0 | — | — | — | No divergence | — |
| Mid-cap divergence SPY vs MDY/SPY | · none | 0 | -0.8% | -0.52 | — | No divergence | — |
| S&P concentration SPY vs SPY/RSP | · none | 0 | -2.3% | -0.86 | — | No divergence | — |
| Top-30 Nasdaq concentration QQQ vs QTOP/QNXT | · none | 0 | -4.3% | -1.1 | — | No divergence | — |
| Cyclical divergence SPY vs XLI/XLU | · none | 0 | +0.2% | -0.19 | — | No divergence | 1× |
| Semiconductor divergence QQQ vs SMH/XLK | · none | 0 | -0.5% | 0.12 | — | No divergence | 2× |
| Small-cap downside-beta warning SPY vs β IWM/SPY | · none | 0 | — | — | — | No divergence | — |
| Semis leadership-exhaustion beta SMH vs β SMH/XLK | · none | 0 | — | — | — | No divergence | 1× |
| S&P price-momentum divergence SPY vs SPY momentum | · none | 0 | — | — | — | No divergence | — |
| Nasdaq vol-adjusted divergence QQQ vs QQQ momentum | · none | 0 | — | — | — | No divergence | — |
| Semis efficiency divergence SMH vs SMH momentum | · none | 0 | — | — | — | No divergence | — |
How to read it
For each rule a primary price index is compared with a confirmation structure series. Returns are direction-normalised (a rising concentration ratio counts as bearish), so the divergence gap = primary return − normalised confirmation return is positive whenever the headline is outrunning what's underneath. The gap is z-scored against its own 252-day history; severity blends magnitude (vs a horizon target), that historical extremeness, persistence (days the divergence has held), importance, 21d/63d agreement, and how many other toolboxes (Breadth-of-Breadth, Ratio-Quality, Beta-Instability) confirm. Bearish = index up while structure fails; bullish = index weak while structure quietly improves. NH marks a new-high non-confirmation.
For information and discussion only — a reading of market internals, not investment advice. Thresholds are uncalibrated pending the planned backtest. Cross-reads with Breadth-of-Breadth, Ratio-Quality and the Beta-Instability X-Ray.