Market X-Ray · Toolbox 4
Dynamic Divergence Scanner
The classic divergence is price making a new high while RSI does not. This is the market-structure version: the index rises, but equal-weight breadth, credit, small-caps and concentration don't confirm. Each relationship is scored on how unusually large the gap is versus its own history, how long it has persisted, and whether the other toolboxes agree — then rolled into one Global Divergence Risk Score and a regime read.
Updated daily · data as of 2026-07-10
By family
Alerts — non-confirmations & clusters
SMH is up over 21d but the move is inefficient (choppy) — Semis are higher but on a noisy, low-efficiency path — leadership without clean momentum.
- 21d trend efficiency 4/100 · 63d 19
- SMH +3.4% / 21d
- Severity 68/100 (strong) · Strong
SPY is up over 21d but the move is inefficient (choppy) — The S&P is higher but the move is inefficient — a choppy, low-quality grind rather than a clean trend.
- 21d trend efficiency 16/100 · 63d 25
- SPY +2.7% / 21d
- Severity 66/100 (strong) · Strong
SPY has risen over 63 days while RSP/SPY has not confirmed (+14.1% gap) — S&P 500 headline strength is not confirmed by the average (equal-weight) stock.
- SPY +11.3% vs RSP/SPY -2.4% over 63d
- Gap +14.1% · z 0.66 · 63d
- 0d active · Emerging · confirmed by 2 modules
- SPY at a 63d high without RSP/SPY confirming
SPY is rising over 21d while IWM/SPY upside participation is fading — The S&P is rising but small-caps’ upside (up-day) beta is fading — they are not capturing the advance.
- Upside-β participation 29/100
- Sharp up-β drop 0.55
- SPY +2.7% / 21d
- Severity 62/100 (moderate) · Active
XLK has risen over 21 days while IGV/XLK has not confirmed (+6.5% gap) — Software is not confirming broad-tech strength.
- XLK +2.9% vs IGV/XLK -3.4% over 21d
- Gap +6.5% · z -0.22 · confirmed 21d & 63d
- 1d active · Emerging · confirmed by 1 module
XLK has risen over 21 days while AIQ/XLK has not confirmed (+5.4% gap) — The AI basket is not confirming broad-tech leadership.
- XLK +2.9% vs AIQ/XLK -2.4% over 21d
- Gap +5.4% · z 0.28 · confirmed 21d & 63d
- 1d active · Emerging · confirmed by 1 module
SPY has risen over 63 days while SPXT/SPY has not confirmed (+18.1% gap) — Non-tech S&P 500 is not keeping pace with the headline.
- SPY +11.3% vs SPXT/SPY -5.8% over 63d
- Gap +18.1% · z 1.05 · 63d
- 0d active · Emerging
- SPY at a 63d high without SPXT/SPY confirming
4 of 7 breadth relationships are diverging at once — a clustered, not isolated, non-confirmation.
- 4 active divergences
- Family score 55/100 (Diverging)
SPY has risen over 21 days while MDY/SPY has not confirmed (+4% gap) — Mid-caps are not confirming large-cap strength.
- SPY +2.7% vs MDY/SPY -1.2% over 21d
- Gap +4% · z 0.45 · confirmed 21d & 63d
- 1d active · Emerging · confirmed by 1 module
- SPY at a 21d high without MDY/SPY confirming
Every relationship — scanned
| Divergence | Dir | Severity | Gap | z | Days | State | Confirm |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Semis efficiency divergence SMH vs SMH momentum | ▼ bear | 68 | — | — | 0 | Strong | — |
| S&P price-momentum divergence SPY vs SPY momentum | ▼ bear | 66 | — | — | 0 | Strong | — |
| S&P 500 breadth divergence SPY vs RSP/SPY | ▼ bear | 62 | +14.1% | 0.66 | 0 | Emerging · NH | 2× |
| Small-cap upside-beta failure SPY vs β IWM/SPY | ▼ bear | 62 | — | — | 0 | Active | — |
| Software divergence XLK vs IGV/XLK | ▼ bear | 59 | +6.5% | -0.22 | 1 | Emerging | 1× |
| AI divergence XLK vs AIQ/XLK | ▼ bear | 56 | +5.4% | 0.28 | 1 | Emerging | 1× |
| S&P ex-tech divergence SPY vs SPXT/SPY | ▼ bear | 55 | +18.1% | 1.05 | 0 | Emerging · NH | — |
| Mid-cap divergence SPY vs MDY/SPY | ▼ bear | 52 | +4% | 0.45 | 1 | Emerging · NH | 1× |
| S&P concentration SPY vs SPY/RSP | ▼ bear | 52 | +14.1% | 0.66 | 0 | Emerging · NH | — |
| Nasdaq lower-70 divergence QQQ vs QNXT/QTOP | ▼ bear | 50 | +3.7% | 0.01 | 1 | Resolving | 1× |
| Top-30 Nasdaq concentration QQQ vs QTOP/QNXT | ▼ bear | 43 | +3.7% | 0.01 | 1 | Resolving | — |
| Semis leadership-exhaustion beta SMH vs β SMH/XLK | ▼ bear | 41 | — | — | 0 | Emerging | — |
| S&P ex-Mag-7 divergence SPY vs XMAG/SPY | · none | 0 | +2% | 0.04 | — | No divergence · NH | — |
| Nasdaq breadth divergence QQQ vs QQQE/QQQ | · none | 0 | +1.7% | -0.22 | — | No divergence | 1× |
| Small-cap divergence SPY vs IWM/SPY | · none | 0 | +1.3% | 0.13 | — | No divergence · NH | — |
| Credit divergence SPY vs HYG/LQD | · none | 0 | +1.6% | -0.04 | — | No divergence | — |
| High-beta divergence SPY vs SPHB/SPLV | · none | 0 | +2.6% | 1.11 | — | No divergence · NH | — |
| Nasdaq breadth beta failure QQQ vs β QQQE/QQQ | · none | 0 | — | — | — | No divergence | — |
| Credit beta failure SPY vs β HYG/SPY | · none | 0 | — | — | — | No divergence | — |
| Breadth-momentum divergence SPY vs Breadth-of-Breadth | · none | 0 | — | — | — | No divergence | — |
| Nasdaq concentration QQQ vs QQQ/QQQE | · none | 0 | +1.7% | -0.22 | — | No divergence | — |
| Consumer risk divergence SPY vs XLY/XLP | · none | 0 | +2% | 0.09 | — | No divergence · NH | — |
| Cyclical divergence SPY vs XLI/XLU | · none | 0 | +2.8% | 0.44 | — | No divergence · NH | — |
| Semiconductor divergence QQQ vs SMH/XLK | · none | 0 | +2.1% | 0.63 | — | No divergence | 1× |
| Small-cap downside-beta warning SPY vs β IWM/SPY | · none | 0 | — | — | — | No divergence | — |
| Nasdaq vol-adjusted divergence QQQ vs QQQ momentum | · none | 0 | — | — | — | No divergence | — |
How to read it
For each rule a primary price index is compared with a confirmation structure series. Returns are direction-normalised (a rising concentration ratio counts as bearish), so the divergence gap = primary return − normalised confirmation return is positive whenever the headline is outrunning what's underneath. The gap is z-scored against its own 252-day history; severity blends magnitude (vs a horizon target), that historical extremeness, persistence (days the divergence has held), importance, 21d/63d agreement, and how many other toolboxes (Breadth-of-Breadth, Ratio-Quality, Beta-Instability) confirm. Bearish = index up while structure fails; bullish = index weak while structure quietly improves. NH marks a new-high non-confirmation.
For information and discussion only — a reading of market internals, not investment advice. Thresholds are uncalibrated pending the planned backtest. Cross-reads with Breadth-of-Breadth, Ratio-Quality and the Beta-Instability X-Ray.