Market X-Ray · Toolbox 4
Dynamic Divergence Scanner
The classic divergence is price making a new high while RSI does not. This is the market-structure version: the index rises, but equal-weight breadth, credit, small-caps and concentration don't confirm. Each relationship is scored on how unusually large the gap is versus its own history, how long it has persisted, and whether the other toolboxes agree — then rolled into one Global Divergence Risk Score and a regime read.
Updated daily · data as of 2026-08-07
By family
Alerts — non-confirmations & clusters
SPY is up over 21d but the move is inefficient (choppy) — The S&P is higher but the move is inefficient — a choppy, low-quality grind rather than a clean trend.
- 21d trend efficiency 20/100 · 63d 14
- SPY +2.9% / 21d
- Severity 84/100 (critical) · Strong · confirmed by 1 module
SPY has risen over 21 days while SPHB/SPLV has not confirmed (+5.2% gap) — The rally is not led by high-beta — defensives are quietly leading.
- SPY +2.9% vs SPHB/SPLV -2.3% over 21d
- Gap +5.2% · z 1.24 · 21d
- 1d active · Resolving · confirmed by 1 module
- SPY at a 21d high without SPHB/SPLV confirming
SPY has risen over 21 days while IWM/SPY has not confirmed (+4.3% gap) — Large-cap strength is not confirmed by small-cap participation.
- SPY +2.9% vs IWM/SPY -1.4% over 21d
- Gap +4.3% · z 0.9 · 21d
- 4d active · Worsening · confirmed by 2 modules
- SPY at a 21d high without IWM/SPY confirming
SPY is rising over 21d while IWM/SPY upside participation is fading — The S&P is rising but small-caps’ upside (up-day) beta is fading — they are not capturing the advance.
- Upside-β participation 27/100
- Sharp up-β drop 0.26
- SPY +2.9% / 21d
- Severity 63/100 (moderate) · Active · confirmed by 1 module
SPY has risen over 21 days while XMAG/SPY has not confirmed (+4.1% gap) — The index is rising without the 493 stocks outside the Mag-7.
- SPY +2.9% vs XMAG/SPY -1.2% over 21d
- Gap +4.1% · z 0.56 · 21d
- 4d active · Worsening · confirmed by 1 module
- SPY at a 21d high without XMAG/SPY confirming
QQQ has risen over 63 days while SMH/XLK has not confirmed (+7.1% gap) — Semis — the cycle tell — are not confirming Nasdaq strength.
- QQQ +4.2% vs SMH/XLK -2.7% over 63d
- Gap +7.1% · z 1.01 · 63d
- 0d active · Emerging · confirmed by 2 modules
3 of 7 breadth relationships are diverging at once — a clustered, not isolated, non-confirmation.
- 3 active divergences
- Family score 55/100 (Diverging)
XLK has risen over 63 days while AIQ/XLK has not confirmed (+16.5% gap) — The AI basket is not confirming broad-tech leadership.
- XLK +10.9% vs AIQ/XLK -4.8% over 63d
- Gap +16.5% · z 0.42 · 63d
- 0d active · Emerging · confirmed by 1 module
- XLK at a 63d high without AIQ/XLK confirming
SPY has risen over 63 days while SPXT/SPY has not confirmed (+8.2% gap) — Non-tech S&P 500 is not keeping pace with the headline.
- SPY +6% vs SPXT/SPY -2% over 63d
- Gap +8.2% · z 0.11 · 63d
- 0d active · Emerging · confirmed by 1 module
- SPY at a 63d high without SPXT/SPY confirming
Every relationship — scanned
| Divergence | Dir | Severity | Gap | z | Days | State | Confirm |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P price-momentum divergence SPY vs SPY momentum | ▼ bear | 84 | — | — | 0 | Strong | 1× |
| High-beta divergence SPY vs SPHB/SPLV | ▼ bear | 65 | +5.2% | 1.24 | 1 | Resolving · NH | 1× |
| Small-cap divergence SPY vs IWM/SPY | ▼ bear | 63 | +4.3% | 0.9 | 4 | Worsening · NH | 2× |
| Small-cap upside-beta failure SPY vs β IWM/SPY | ▼ bear | 63 | — | — | 0 | Active | 1× |
| S&P ex-Mag-7 divergence SPY vs XMAG/SPY | ▼ bear | 56 | +4.1% | 0.56 | 4 | Worsening · NH | 1× |
| Semiconductor divergence QQQ vs SMH/XLK | ▼ bear | 56 | +7.1% | 1.01 | 0 | Emerging | 2× |
| AI divergence XLK vs AIQ/XLK | ▼ bear | 52 | +16.5% | 0.42 | 0 | Emerging · NH | 1× |
| S&P ex-tech divergence SPY vs SPXT/SPY | ▼ bear | 45 | +8.2% | 0.11 | 0 | Emerging · NH | 1× |
| Consumer risk divergence SPY vs XLY/XLP | ▼ bear | 43 | +8% | 0.41 | 0 | Emerging · NH | — |
| Credit beta failure SPY vs β HYG/SPY | ▼ bear | 41 | — | — | 0 | Emerging | — |
| S&P 500 breadth divergence SPY vs RSP/SPY | · none | 0 | +2.6% | 0.18 | — | No divergence · NH | 1× |
| Nasdaq breadth divergence QQQ vs QQQE/QQQ | · none | 0 | -1.2% | -0.54 | — | No divergence | 1× |
| Nasdaq lower-70 divergence QQQ vs QNXT/QTOP | · none | 0 | -2% | -0.64 | — | No divergence | — |
| Credit divergence SPY vs HYG/LQD | · none | 0 | +1.9% | 0.15 | — | No divergence · NH | 1× |
| Nasdaq breadth beta failure QQQ vs β QQQE/QQQ | · none | 0 | — | — | — | No divergence | — |
| Breadth-momentum divergence SPY vs Breadth-of-Breadth | · none | 0 | — | — | — | No divergence | 1× |
| Mid-cap divergence SPY vs MDY/SPY | · none | 0 | +3% | 0.3 | — | No divergence · NH | — |
| S&P concentration SPY vs SPY/RSP | · none | 0 | +2.6% | 0.18 | — | No divergence · NH | — |
| Nasdaq concentration QQQ vs QQQ/QQQE | · none | 0 | -1.2% | -0.54 | — | No divergence | — |
| Top-30 Nasdaq concentration QQQ vs QTOP/QNXT | · none | 0 | -2% | -0.64 | — | No divergence | — |
| Cyclical divergence SPY vs XLI/XLU | · none | 0 | -2.8% | -0.91 | — | No divergence · NH | 1× |
| Small-cap downside-beta warning SPY vs β IWM/SPY | · none | 0 | — | — | — | No divergence | 1× |
| Semis leadership-exhaustion beta SMH vs β SMH/XLK | · none | 0 | — | — | — | No divergence | 1× |
| Software divergence XLK vs IGV/XLK | · none | 0 | -6% | -1.24 | — | No divergence · NH | — |
| Nasdaq vol-adjusted divergence QQQ vs QQQ momentum | · none | 0 | — | — | — | No divergence | 1× |
| Semis efficiency divergence SMH vs SMH momentum | · none | 0 | — | — | — | No divergence | 1× |
How to read it
For each rule a primary price index is compared with a confirmation structure series. Returns are direction-normalised (a rising concentration ratio counts as bearish), so the divergence gap = primary return − normalised confirmation return is positive whenever the headline is outrunning what's underneath. The gap is z-scored against its own 252-day history; severity blends magnitude (vs a horizon target), that historical extremeness, persistence (days the divergence has held), importance, 21d/63d agreement, and how many other toolboxes (Breadth-of-Breadth, Ratio-Quality, Beta-Instability) confirm. Bearish = index up while structure fails; bullish = index weak while structure quietly improves. NH marks a new-high non-confirmation.
For information and discussion only — a reading of market internals, not investment advice. Thresholds are uncalibrated pending the planned backtest. Cross-reads with Breadth-of-Breadth, Ratio-Quality and the Beta-Instability X-Ray.
FAQ · from the current data · as of 2026-08-07
Quick answers
What does the Dynamic Divergence Scanner track?
It scans whether the headline index (S&P 500 / Nasdaq-100) is trending one way while the structure beneath it — breadth, credit, small-caps, concentration — trends the other. Each relationship is severity-scored on how unusual the gap is versus its own history, how long it has persisted, and whether other toolboxes agree, then rolled into one Global Divergence Risk Score.
What is the Global Divergence Risk Score right now?
As of 2026-08-07, the Global Divergence Risk Score is 46, labeled "moderate", in a "Leadership exhaustion" regime.
How many divergences are currently active?
As of 2026-08-07, 10 divergences are active — 10 bearish (index up, structure not confirming) and 0 bullish (index weak, structure improving).
How is a divergence’s severity scored?
The divergence gap (primary index return minus direction-normalised confirmation return) is z-scored against its own 252-day history. Severity blends that magnitude and historical extremeness with persistence (days active), importance, 21-day/63-day agreement, and how many other toolboxes — Breadth-of-Breadth, Ratio-Quality, Beta-Instability — confirm the same read.