Market X-Ray · Toolbox 4
Dynamic Divergence Scanner
The classic divergence is price making a new high while RSI does not. This is the market-structure version: the index rises, but equal-weight breadth, credit, small-caps and concentration don't confirm. Each relationship is scored on how unusually large the gap is versus its own history, how long it has persisted, and whether the other toolboxes agree — then rolled into one Global Divergence Risk Score and a regime read.
Updated daily · data as of 2026-06-26
By family
Alerts — non-confirmations & clusters
SPY is weak over 21 days while RSP/SPY is improving (-6.8% gap) — a constructive (bullish) non-confirmation.
- SPY -2.6% vs RSP/SPY +4.5% over 21d
- Gap -6.8% · z -1.91 · 21d
- 1d active · Worsening · confirmed by 2 modules
QQQ is weak over 21 days while QQQE/QQQ is improving (-7.2% gap) — a constructive (bullish) non-confirmation.
- QQQ -3% vs QQQE/QQQ +4.5% over 21d
- Gap -7.2% · z -1.81 · 21d
- 1d active · Worsening · confirmed by 2 modules
SPY is weak over 21 days while IWM/SPY is improving (-8.4% gap) — a constructive (bullish) non-confirmation.
- SPY -2.6% vs IWM/SPY +6.3% over 21d
- Gap -8.4% · z -2.52 · 21d
- 1d active · Worsening
SPY is weak over 21 days while XMAG/SPY is improving (-8.1% gap) — a constructive (bullish) non-confirmation.
- SPY -2.6% vs XMAG/SPY +5.9% over 21d
- Gap -8.1% · z -2.38 · 21d
- 1d active · Worsening
QQQ is weak over 21 days while QNXT/QTOP is improving (-9.1% gap) — a constructive (bullish) non-confirmation.
- QQQ -3% vs QNXT/QTOP +6.7% over 21d
- Gap -9.1% · z -1.93 · 21d
- 1d active · Worsening · confirmed by 1 module
7 of 7 breadth relationships are diverging at once — a clustered, not isolated, non-confirmation.
- 7 active divergences
- Family score 73/100 (Strong divergence)
SPY is weak over 21 days while MDY/SPY is improving (-7.7% gap) — a constructive (bullish) non-confirmation.
- SPY -2.6% vs MDY/SPY +5.5% over 21d
- Gap -7.7% · z -2.1 · 21d
- 1d active · Worsening
XLK has risen over 63 days while IGV/XLK has not confirmed (+69.3% gap) — Software is not confirming broad-tech strength.
- XLK +36.8% vs IGV/XLK -19.2% over 63d
- Gap +69.3% · z 2.68 · 63d
- 0d active · Strong · confirmed by 1 module
QQQ is weak over 21 days while SMH/XLK is improving (-7.2% gap) — a constructive (bullish) non-confirmation.
- QQQ -3% vs SMH/XLK +4.5% over 21d
- Gap -7.2% · z -1.33 · 21d
- 1d active · Worsening · confirmed by 1 module
3 of 3 concentration relationships are diverging at once — a clustered, not isolated, non-confirmation.
- 3 active divergences
- Family score 67/100 (Strong divergence)
Every relationship — scanned
| Divergence | Dir | Severity | Gap | z | Days | State | Confirm |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 breadth divergence SPY vs RSP/SPY | ▲ bull | 77 | -6.8% | -1.91 | 1 | Worsening | 2× |
| Nasdaq breadth divergence QQQ vs QQQE/QQQ | ▲ bull | 76 | -7.2% | -1.81 | 1 | Worsening | 2× |
| Small-cap divergence SPY vs IWM/SPY | ▲ bull | 75 | -8.4% | -2.52 | 1 | Worsening | — |
| S&P ex-Mag-7 divergence SPY vs XMAG/SPY | ▲ bull | 74 | -8.1% | -2.38 | 1 | Worsening | — |
| Nasdaq lower-70 divergence QQQ vs QNXT/QTOP | ▲ bull | 74 | -9.1% | -1.93 | 1 | Worsening | 1× |
| Mid-cap divergence SPY vs MDY/SPY | ▲ bull | 69 | -7.7% | -2.1 | 1 | Worsening | — |
| Software divergence XLK vs IGV/XLK | ▼ bear | 69 | +69.3% | 2.68 | 0 | Strong | 1× |
| Semiconductor divergence QQQ vs SMH/XLK | ▲ bull | 68 | -7.2% | -1.33 | 1 | Worsening | 1× |
| Semis efficiency divergence SMH vs SMH momentum | ▼ bear | 68 | — | — | 0 | Strong | — |
| S&P concentration SPY vs SPY/RSP | ▲ bull | 67 | -6.8% | -1.91 | 1 | Worsening | — |
| Top-30 Nasdaq concentration QQQ vs QTOP/QNXT | ▲ bull | 67 | -9.1% | -1.93 | 1 | Worsening | — |
| Nasdaq concentration QQQ vs QQQ/QQQE | ▲ bull | 66 | -7.2% | -1.81 | 1 | Worsening | — |
| S&P ex-tech divergence SPY vs SPXT/SPY | ▲ bull | 60 | -4.4% | -1.51 | 1 | Worsening | 1× |
| Cyclical divergence SPY vs XLI/XLU | ▲ bull | 51 | -3.7% | -1.25 | 1 | Emerging | — |
| Semis leadership-exhaustion beta SMH vs β SMH/XLK | ▼ bear | 43 | — | — | 0 | Emerging | — |
| Credit divergence SPY vs HYG/LQD | · none | 0 | -1.9% | -1.13 | — | No divergence | 1× |
| High-beta divergence SPY vs SPHB/SPLV | · none | 0 | -2.5% | -0.14 | — | No divergence | — |
| Small-cap upside-beta failure SPY vs β IWM/SPY | · none | 0 | — | — | — | No divergence | — |
| Nasdaq breadth beta failure QQQ vs β QQQE/QQQ | · none | 0 | — | — | — | No divergence | 1× |
| Credit beta failure SPY vs β HYG/SPY | · none | 0 | — | — | — | No divergence | — |
| Breadth-momentum divergence SPY vs Breadth-of-Breadth | · none | 0 | — | — | — | No divergence | — |
| Consumer risk divergence SPY vs XLY/XLP | · none | 0 | +4.2% | 0.52 | — | No divergence | 1× |
| Small-cap downside-beta warning SPY vs β IWM/SPY | · none | 0 | — | — | — | No divergence | — |
| S&P price-momentum divergence SPY vs SPY momentum | · none | 0 | — | — | — | No divergence | — |
| AI divergence XLK vs AIQ/XLK | · none | 0 | -0.4% | -0.63 | — | No divergence | 1× |
| Nasdaq vol-adjusted divergence QQQ vs QQQ momentum | · none | 0 | — | — | — | No divergence | — |
How to read it
For each rule a primary price index is compared with a confirmation structure series. Returns are direction-normalised (a rising concentration ratio counts as bearish), so the divergence gap = primary return − normalised confirmation return is positive whenever the headline is outrunning what's underneath. The gap is z-scored against its own 252-day history; severity blends magnitude (vs a horizon target), that historical extremeness, persistence (days the divergence has held), importance, 21d/63d agreement, and how many other toolboxes (Breadth-of-Breadth, Ratio-Quality, Beta-Instability) confirm. Bearish = index up while structure fails; bullish = index weak while structure quietly improves. NH marks a new-high non-confirmation.
For information and discussion only — a reading of market internals, not investment advice. Thresholds are uncalibrated pending the planned backtest. Cross-reads with Breadth-of-Breadth, Ratio-Quality and the Beta-Instability X-Ray.