Level
How hot — current pressure
50 /100 Contained
Macro Dashboards · Leading Monitor
Structural Inflation
Not a CPI mirror — a leading read on where inflation pressure is heading and whether it is structural or just a transitory shock. 26 FRED series across 7 buckets, separating persistence (wages, breadth, rents, expectations) from the supply shock by construction. Three reads answer the three questions an investor asks.
Updated daily · data as of loading…
Direction
Heating or cooling — ~3–6m momentum
50 /100 Flat
Character
Structural vs transitory
50 /100 Mixed
Character read
Mixed
Supply pressure not (yet) spreading to breadth/expectations — treat as noise.
Persistence core+0.00
Supply shock—
Breadth / expectations+0.00
Shock spreading?No
"Spreading" is an early-warning nuance; the headline lean is the Character gauge above.
The seven buckets — level and momentum
Core cost pressure (ECI − productivity) 30%
— · —
Labor tightness 15%
— · —
Shelter pipeline 15%
— · —
Median / trimmed + breadth 15%
— · —
Long-run inflation expectations 10%
— · —
Supply / import / energy (shock) 10% · shock
— · —
Margins / financial conditions 5%
— · —
All 26 indicators — level z and momentum z
| Indicator | Bucket | Level z | Momentum z |
|---|---|---|---|
| ECI wages & salaries, private ECIWAG | cost | — | — |
| NFB compensation / hour COMPNFB | cost | — | — |
| NFB productivity (inverts) OPHNFB | cost | — | — |
| NFB unit labor cost ULCNFB | cost | — | — |
| Job openings, total nonfarm JTSJOL | labor | — | — |
| Unemployed persons (level) UNEMPLOY | labor | — | — |
| Quits rate JTSQUR | labor | — | — |
| Hires rate JTSHIR | labor | — | — |
| Atlanta Fed wage tracker FRBATLWGT3MMAWMHWGO | labor | — | — |
| CPI rent of primary residence CUSR0000SEHA | shelter | — | — |
| CPI owners-equivalent rent CUSR0000SEHC | shelter | — | — |
| Cleveland median CPI (1m ann) MEDCPIM158SFRBCLE | breadth | — | — |
| Cleveland 16% trimmed CPI (1m ann) TRMMEANCPIM158SFRBCLE | breadth | — | — |
| Dallas trimmed-mean PCE (1m ann) PCETRIM1M158SFRBDAL | breadth | — | — |
| 5y breakeven inflation T5YIE | expectations | — | — |
| 10y breakeven inflation T10YIE | expectations | — | — |
| 5y5y forward inflation T5YIFR | expectations | — | — |
| Cleveland 10y expected inflation EXPINF10YR | expectations | — | — |
| WTI crude, 3m change DCOILWTICO | supply | — | — |
| Brent crude, 3m change DCOILBRENTEU | supply | — | — |
| PPI all commodities PPIACO | supply | — | — |
| Import price index, all IR | supply | — | — |
| Import prices ex food & fuels IREXFDFLS | supply | — | — |
| Chicago Fed NFCI NFCI | margins | — | — |
| Adjusted NFCI ANFCI | margins | — | — |
| Corporate profits after tax CP | margins | — | — |
How to read it
Each indicator is transformed (YoY, 3-month annualised, or level), winsorised, and z-scored against its own ~12-year history. Level is the weighted composite of those z-scores; Direction is the same weights over each indicator's momentum (the change in its reading vs its own history of changes); Character is the persistence core minus the portion of the supply shock not yet confirmed by breadth and expectations. Sub-scores freeze between releases, so a quarterly input holds until its next print.
For information and discussion only — a reading of US macro data, not investment advice or a forecast guarantee. The Character read is an uncalibrated lean pending the planned backtest. Cross-read with the Money Temperature regime.