Level
How hot — current pressure
47 /100 Contained
Macro Dashboards · Leading Monitor
Structural Inflation
Not a CPI mirror — a leading read on where inflation pressure is heading and whether it is structural or just a transitory shock. 26 FRED series across 7 buckets, separating persistence (wages, breadth, rents, expectations) from the supply shock by construction. Three reads answer the three questions an investor asks.
Updated daily · data as of 2026-08-03
Direction
Heating or cooling — ~3–6m momentum
52 /100 Flat
Character
Structural vs transitory
46 /100 Mixed
Character read
Mixed
Supply pressure not (yet) spreading to breadth/expectations — treat as noise.
Persistence core-0.29
Supply shock+0.41
Breadth / expectations+0.41
Shock spreading?No
"Spreading" is an early-warning nuance; the headline lean is the Character gauge above.
The seven buckets — level and momentum
Core cost pressure (ECI − productivity) 30%
43 ↓ -0.60
Labor tightness 15%
41 → +0.19
Shelter pipeline 15%
42 → +0.38
Median / trimmed + breadth 15%
49 ↑ +0.54
Long-run inflation expectations 10%
61 → +0.26
Supply / import / energy (shock) 10% · shock
55 ↑ +0.97
Margins / financial conditions 5%
61 ↑ +0.90
All 26 indicators — level z and momentum z
| Indicator | Bucket | Level z | Momentum z |
|---|---|---|---|
| ECI wages & salaries, private ECIWAG | cost | -0.21 | -0.62 |
| NFB compensation / hour COMPNFB | cost | -0.39 | -0.69 |
| NFB productivity (inverts) OPHNFB | cost | -0.52 | -0.16 |
| NFB unit labor cost ULCNFB | cost | -1.18 | -0.94 |
| Job openings, total nonfarm JTSJOL | labor | +0.08 | +0.99 |
| Unemployed persons (level) UNEMPLOY | labor | — | — |
| Quits rate JTSQUR | labor | -1.11 | -0.02 |
| Hires rate JTSHIR | labor | -1.29 | +0.69 |
| Atlanta Fed wage tracker FRBATLWGT3MMAWMHWGO | labor | -0.47 | -0.87 |
| CPI rent of primary residence CUSR0000SEHA | shelter | -0.68 | +0.38 |
| CPI owners-equivalent rent CUSR0000SEHC | shelter | — | — |
| Cleveland median CPI (1m ann) MEDCPIM158SFRBCLE | breadth | +0.15 | +1.75 |
| Cleveland 16% trimmed CPI (1m ann) TRMMEANCPIM158SFRBCLE | breadth | -0.10 | +0.38 |
| Dallas trimmed-mean PCE (1m ann) PCETRIM1M158SFRBDAL | breadth | -0.24 | -0.51 |
| 5y breakeven inflation T5YIE | expectations | +0.47 | -0.08 |
| 10y breakeven inflation T10YIE | expectations | +0.64 | +0.30 |
| 5y5y forward inflation T5YIFR | expectations | +0.88 | +0.79 |
| Cleveland 10y expected inflation EXPINF10YR | expectations | +1.52 | +0.02 |
| WTI crude, 3m change DCOILWTICO | supply | -0.71 | +0.31 |
| Brent crude, 3m change DCOILBRENTEU | supply | -0.91 | +0.76 |
| PPI all commodities PPIACO | supply | +0.95 | +0.82 |
| Import price index, all IR | supply | +1.19 | +1.64 |
| Import prices ex food & fuels IREXFDFLS | supply | +1.51 | +1.33 |
| Chicago Fed NFCI NFCI | margins | +0.63 | +0.75 |
| Adjusted NFCI ANFCI | margins | — | — |
| Corporate profits after tax CP | margins | +1.10 | +1.06 |
How to read it
Each indicator is transformed (YoY, 3-month annualised, or level), winsorised, and z-scored against its own ~12-year history. Level is the weighted composite of those z-scores; Direction is the same weights over each indicator's momentum (the change in its reading vs its own history of changes); Character is the persistence core minus the portion of the supply shock not yet confirmed by breadth and expectations. Sub-scores freeze between releases, so a quarterly input holds until its next print.
For information and discussion only — a reading of US macro data, not investment advice or a forecast guarantee. The Character read is an uncalibrated lean pending the planned backtest. Cross-read with the Money Temperature regime.