Level
How hot — current pressure
49 /100 Contained
Macro Dashboards · Leading Monitor
Structural Inflation
Not a CPI mirror — a leading read on where inflation pressure is heading and whether it is structural or just a transitory shock. 26 FRED series across 7 buckets, separating persistence (wages, breadth, rents, expectations) from the supply shock by construction. Three reads answer the three questions an investor asks.
Updated daily · data as of 2026-06-04
Direction
Heating or cooling — ~3–6m momentum
49 /100 Flat
Character
Structural vs transitory
40 /100 Leans transitory
Character read
Leans transitory
Supply pressure is showing up in breadth/expectations — watch for persistence.
Persistence core-0.20
Supply shock+1.16
Breadth / expectations+0.54
Shock spreading?Yes — watch
"Spreading" is an early-warning nuance; the headline lean is the Character gauge above.
The seven buckets — level and momentum
Core cost pressure (ECI − productivity) 30%
43 ↓ -0.62
Labor tightness 15%
43 → -0.15
Shelter pipeline 15%
45 → -0.01
Median / trimmed + breadth 15%
51 ↑ +0.82
Long-run inflation expectations 10%
63 → -0.44
Supply / import / energy (shock) 10% · shock
64 → +0.23
Margins / financial conditions 5%
55 → +0.16
All 26 indicators — level z and momentum z
| Indicator | Bucket | Level z | Momentum z |
|---|---|---|---|
| ECI wages & salaries, private ECIWAG | cost | -0.00 | -0.71 |
| NFB compensation / hour COMPNFB | cost | -0.39 | -0.69 |
| NFB productivity (inverts) OPHNFB | cost | -0.52 | -0.16 |
| NFB unit labor cost ULCNFB | cost | -1.18 | -0.94 |
| Job openings, total nonfarm JTSJOL | labor | +0.11 | +0.52 |
| Unemployed persons (level) UNEMPLOY | labor | +0.13 | +0.06 |
| Quits rate JTSQUR | labor | -1.11 | -0.66 |
| Hires rate JTSHIR | labor | -1.56 | -0.62 |
| Atlanta Fed wage tracker FRBATLWGT3MMAWMHWGO | labor | -0.54 | -0.06 |
| CPI rent of primary residence CUSR0000SEHA | shelter | -0.65 | -0.12 |
| CPI owners-equivalent rent CUSR0000SEHC | shelter | -0.19 | +0.10 |
| Cleveland median CPI (1m ann) MEDCPIM158SFRBCLE | breadth | -0.16 | +1.09 |
| Cleveland 16% trimmed CPI (1m ann) TRMMEANCPIM158SFRBCLE | breadth | +0.28 | +0.91 |
| Dallas trimmed-mean PCE (1m ann) PCETRIM1M158SFRBDAL | breadth | +0.02 | +0.45 |
| 5y breakeven inflation T5YIE | expectations | +0.96 | -1.15 |
| 10y breakeven inflation T10YIE | expectations | +0.89 | -0.89 |
| 5y5y forward inflation T5YIFR | expectations | +0.59 | -0.25 |
| Cleveland 10y expected inflation EXPINF10YR | expectations | +1.70 | +0.54 |
| WTI crude, 3m change DCOILWTICO | supply | +1.40 | -1.68 |
| Brent crude, 3m change DCOILBRENTEU | supply | +1.47 | -1.86 |
| PPI all commodities PPIACO | supply | +0.94 | +1.93 |
| Import price index, all IR | supply | +0.72 | +1.24 |
| Import prices ex food & fuels IREXFDFLS | supply | +1.25 | +1.53 |
| Chicago Fed NFCI NFCI | margins | +0.20 | -0.12 |
| Adjusted NFCI ANFCI | margins | -0.10 | -0.37 |
| Corporate profits after tax CP | margins | +1.01 | +0.98 |
How to read it
Each indicator is transformed (YoY, 3-month annualised, or level), winsorised, and z-scored against its own ~12-year history. Level is the weighted composite of those z-scores; Direction is the same weights over each indicator's momentum (the change in its reading vs its own history of changes); Character is the persistence core minus the portion of the supply shock not yet confirmed by breadth and expectations. Sub-scores freeze between releases, so a quarterly input holds until its next print.
For information and discussion only — a reading of US macro data, not investment advice or a forecast guarantee. The Character read is an uncalibrated lean pending the planned backtest. Cross-read with the Money Temperature regime.