AW40 Trading Overlay

How AW40 is trading against broad benchmarks, Rubin's infrastructure cohort, and the software ↔ semis rotation. All three panels normalised to 100 at series start — click a series to toggle visibility.

Updated after each US close. — ← AW40 Index

Panel 1 · Benchmark Cohort

AW40 vs Broad Benchmarks

AW40 composite plotted against Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), S&P 500 (SPY), tech-sector slices (XLK, IGV), semi slices (SMH, SMHX), and Nasdaq structural splits (QTEC Tech, QQXT ex-Tech, QTOP Top-30, QNXT ex-Top-30, TOPT megacap). All normalised to 100 at the first shared trading day.

Panel 2 · Rubin Infrastructure Cohort

AW40 vs Rubin Build-Out + 18 Rubin Sectors

AW40 (demand side) plotted against Rubin composite (supply side) and Rubin's 18 infrastructure sectors. Flip a layer to isolate which part of the build-out is leading or lagging AW40.

Panel 3 · Rotation Signal

Software (IGV) vs Semis (SMH) — Rotation Tracker

Normalised overlay of software (IGV) and semis (SMH), with 20-day rolling correlation below. Semis up / software down = negative correlation window. The snap-back — correlation trending back toward zero or positive while software starts holding on selloff days — is the rotation setup.

20-day rolling correlation today: — — —

What the overlay shows

The AW40 Trading Overlay plots the Agentic Winners 40 against three reference frames at once: the broad benchmarks (S&P 500, Nasdaq-100), the Rubin Build-Out with its sector cohorts, and the software-versus-semis rotation pair (IGV/SMH). Read together they answer one question — is AW40's move its own, or is it the market's? Outperformance against the benchmarks with a rising IGV/SMH ratio marks genuine deployment-side leadership; the same move with a falling ratio is usually beta. Series are rebased inside the selected window, so index levels and prices become one percent scale — the same convention as the compare tool. Research diary, not investment advice.