STP · Index 4 of 4 · AI Build-Out Family · monthly cadence · 12 tickers · 4 layers · cycle-stage detector
Semicap / Test Pulse
Semiconductor equipment is the upstream-of-upstream layer. When ASML, AMAT, Lam, Tokyo Electron, and the test-and-packaging names build order books, fab capacity follows 6-12 months later, silicon a quarter after that, and the products that depend on it a quarter after that. STP tracks the four layers of the equipment cycle and surfaces the cycle stage from the gap between front-end capex and back-end test.
Back-end Test layer running 20+ points above Front-end Capex. Demand is outrunning capacity — finished-die testing scaling while new fab equipment slows. Historically a late-cycle pattern that precedes pricing pressure.
5 points · since 2026-05 · trend reads once ≥7 days accrue
Layer breakdown
Each layer captures one stage of the semicap/test value chain. Score is the percentile rank of average 21d return vs the layer's rolling 24-month history (first months use a deterministic heuristic). Weights front-load front-end capex because it leads the rest by 6-12 months.
ASML (EUV/DUV lithography monopoly), Applied Materials, Lam Research, Tokyo Electron. The wafer-processing capex layer — when these names build order books, fab capacity follows 6-12 months later.
KLA (process control inspection leader), Onto Innovation, Camtek. Metrology and wafer inspection — the quality-gate layer that scales with wafer starts.
Advantest (memory + SoC test, HBM leader), Teradyne (SoC + robotics), Cohu (handlers). Test equipment for finished die — moves later in the cycle as silicon comes out the front-end.
BE Semiconductor (hybrid bonding, HBM4 critical), ASMPT, Disco (wafer dicing). The CoWoS / chiplet / HBM-stack assembly layer — the new bottleneck as die sizes plateau and integration moves to packaging.
Per-ticker breakdown 13 tickers · sorted by layer · 21d return
| Ticker | Company | Specialty | Layer | 21d return |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8035.T | Tokyo Electron | Coater / etch / cleaning | Front-end Capex | +3.6% |
| ASML | ASML | EUV / DUV lithography (monopoly) | Front-end Capex | +0.6% |
| LRCX | Lam Research | Etch / deposition | Front-end Capex | +0.6% |
| AMAT | Applied Materials | Deposition / etch / inspection | Front-end Capex | -13.8% |
| ONTO | Onto Innovation | Metrology / lithography software | Front-end Test / Inspection | -0.3% |
| CAMT | Camtek | Advanced-packaging wafer inspection | Front-end Test / Inspection | -2.6% |
| KLAC | KLA Corp | Process control inspection (leader) | Front-end Test / Inspection | -3.9% |
| 6857.T | Advantest | Memory + SoC test (HBM leader) | Back-end Test | +7.4% |
| COHU | Cohu | Test handlers + contactors | Back-end Test | -2.1% |
| TER | Teradyne | SoC test + robotics | Back-end Test | -7.2% |
| 0522.HK | ASMPT | Advanced packaging + bonders | Advanced Packaging | +3.8% |
| 6146.T | Disco | Wafer dicing + grinding | Advanced Packaging | -4.8% |
| BESI.AS | BE Semiconductor | Hybrid bonding (HBM4 critical) | Advanced Packaging | -8.0% |
AI Build-Out Index Family 4 indices · supply-side AI hardware tracking
CCST · TAISP · MHP · STP — four independent indices, each with its own data source, equity basket, and equity-gap signal. Read them together: when one moves before the others, that's the rotation signal. (Agentic-demand-side tracking lives in the separate Agentic Demand Index.)
AI Build-Out Index — equal-weighted average of the 4 live indices below (4 of 4 reporting). Each index counts once; one with no current reading drops out rather than being imputed.
- CCSTCompute Spot Tightness69.0 / 100 NeutralSpot GPU rental + cross-gen ratiosDaily scrape · biweekly composite
Spot market for GPU compute — rental rates, availability, and cross-generation price ratios (H100/B200, A100/H100). High = compute scarce.
Open index → - TAISPTaiwan AI Supply Pulse96.0 / 100 TightTaiwan ODM + OSAT + foundry revenueMonthly · TWSE filings
Monthly revenue from 25 Taiwan-listed AI hardware suppliers across 5 layers — AI server ODMs, OSAT, foundry, substrate, cooling. Audited filings, no analyst noise.
Open index → - MHPMemory / HBM Pulse46.0 / 100 NeutralHBM Big-3 supply + equipment + packagingMonthly · 21st
The HBM bottleneck that gates AI accelerator shipments. SK Hynix / Samsung / Micron — when they sell out, the AI capex ceiling is set. Lead-vs-coincident divergence signal 2-4 months ahead of revenue print.
Open index → - STP You are hereSemicap / Test Pulse49.0 / 100 NeutralEquipment cycle gating silicon supplyMonthly · 18th
Equipment cycle that gates silicon supply. ASML / AMAT / LRCX / Tokyo Electron order books → fab capacity 6-12 months later. Cycle-stage detector reads front-end vs back-end gap.
Methodology
STP is the fourth and final of the Closelook AI Build-Out Index Family — a 4-index suite tracking the AI hardware supply chain (Compute Spot Tightness · Taiwan AI Supply Pulse · Memory/HBM Pulse · Semicap/Test Pulse). Each index has its own data sources, equity basket, and equity-gap signal. Closelook Agentic Usage Pulse (AUP), tracking demand-side AI adoption, is a separate standalone index in its own track.
Equity layer: 21d returns from the Closelook Lake API for 12 semicap/test/packaging tickers across 4 layers. Per-layer score = percentile rank of average 21d return vs rolling 24-month history. Composite = layer-weighted blend: Front-end Capex 35% (the leading layer), Front-end Test/Inspection 25%, Back-end Test 20%, Advanced Packaging 20%.
Cycle-stage detector reads the gap between Front-end Capex and Back-end Test scores. Early cycle (bullish): FE ≥ BE+20 = capacity built ahead of demand. Mid cycle (aligned): within ±20 pts and both expansionary. Late cycle (warning): BE ≥ FE+20 = demand outrunning capacity, historically precedes pricing pressure. Contraction: both layers <40.
MVP2 will add the macro-billings layer: SEMI North America monthly equipment billings (semi.org press release ~17-20th of the following month) and SEAJ Japan monthly billings (seaj.or.jp ~mid-month), with book-to-bill ratios as the actual leading derivative. The MVP1 cron fires on the 18th to align with both release windows.
Index reading is a diary entry on our process. Closelook publishes research, not investment advice.