Market X-Ray · Toolbox 5
Regime-Specific Baselines
The same signal means different things in different markets. RSP/SPY down 4% is normal in a bear and a warning in a broad bull. This toolbox makes the X-Ray context-aware: it classifies the composite regime across five dimensions, then scores each structural indicator against what is normal for that regime — a regime z-score and regime percentile, not a fixed threshold.
Updated daily · data as of loading…
Composite regime
The market reads as a sideways with mixed participation, tech leadership and normal volatility; risk appetite appears risk-on.
Abnormal for the current regime
Each indicator's 63-day move scored against its own history within this regime. Regime percentile ≤ 10 or ≥ 90 = abnormal for the trend, even when the universal percentile looks ordinary.
| Indicator | Value | Universal %ile | Regime %ile | Regime z | n | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RSP/SPY 63D ROC | — | — | — | — | 0 | no data |
| XMAG/SPY 63D ROC | — | — | — | — | 0 | no data |
| IWM/SPY 63D ROC | — | — | — | — | 0 | no data |
| HYG/LQD 63D ROC | — | — | — | — | 0 | no data |
| SPHB/SPLV 63D ROC | — | — | — | — | 0 | no data |
| SMH/XLK 63D ROC | — | — | — | — | 0 | no data |
Adaptive threshold modifiers
How the current regime re-weights the other toolboxes' signals. A regime-aware engine tightens where a signal is abnormal for the trend and loosens where it is expected.
No active threshold modifiers — no indicator is abnormally weak for the current regime right now.
How to read it
Primary trend is classified from SPY (50/200-day position, 200-day slope, 63-day momentum, drawdown). Because that is computable at every historical bar, each indicator's distribution is collected within the current primary-trend regime across the engine's ~3-year window — the regime percentile and regime z say how unusual today's value is for this regime, beside the universal percentile. The other four dimensions (participation, risk appetite, leadership, volatility) classify the live composite. Thresholds are uncalibrated pending the planned backtest.
For information and discussion only — a reading of market internals, not investment advice. Feeds the Cross-Toolbox Alert Stack; pairs with Breadth-of-Breadth and the Beta-Instability X-Ray.
FAQ · from the current data
Quick answers
What does Regime-Specific Baselines measure?
The same signal means different things in different markets — RSP/SPY down 4% is normal in a bear market and a warning in a broad bull. This toolbox classifies the composite regime across five dimensions (primary trend, participation, risk appetite, leadership, volatility), then scores each structural indicator against what is normal for that regime — a regime z-score and regime percentile, not a fixed threshold.
What is the current composite regime?
The composite regime classification refreshes after each US close; see the regime card above for the current read.
How many indicators are currently abnormal for the regime?
The count of regime-abnormal indicators refreshes after each US close; see the indicator table above for the current figure.
What is a regime percentile, and how does it differ from a universal percentile?
The regime percentile ranks today’s value only against days when the market was in the same primary-trend regime, over the engine’s roughly three-year window, while the universal percentile ranks it against all days regardless of regime. A reading can look ordinary universally but be abnormal for its regime, or vice versa.