Market X-Ray · Toolbox 5
Regime-Specific Baselines
The same signal means different things in different markets. RSP/SPY down 4% is normal in a bear and a warning in a broad bull. This toolbox makes the X-Ray context-aware: it classifies the composite regime across five dimensions, then scores each structural indicator against what is normal for that regime — a regime z-score and regime percentile, not a fixed threshold.
Updated daily · data as of 2026-07-17
Composite regime
Severe short-term cracks beneath a still-intact bull trend: semis are selling off. On a 63-day view semis still lead and participation reads broad, with a selective risk-on tone — so this may be an early sign of a regime change, or may simply be a dip inside the bull; too early to tell.
Abnormal for the current regime
Each indicator's 63-day move scored against its own history within this regime. Regime percentile ≤ 10 or ≥ 90 = abnormal for the trend, even when the universal percentile looks ordinary.
| Indicator | Value | Universal %ile | Regime %ile | Regime z | n | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RSP/SPY 63D ROC | +0.5% | 77 | 83 | +0.81 | 471 | Normal for Bull Trend |
| XMAG/SPY 63D ROC | +1.5% | 74 | 90 | +1.35 | 281 | Strong for Bull Trend (top 10% for this regime) |
| IWM/SPY 63D ROC | +2.8% | 77 | 70 | +0.62 | 471 | Normal for Bull Trend |
| HYG/LQD 63D ROC | +1.2% | 61 | 61 | +0.22 | 471 | Normal for Bull Trend |
| SPHB/SPLV 63D ROC | +5.1% | 56 | 46 | -0.26 | 471 | Normal for Bull Trend |
| SMH/XLK 63D ROC | +5.8% | 50 | 43 | -0.02 | 471 | Normal for Bull Trend |
Adaptive threshold modifiers
How the current regime re-weights the other toolboxes' signals. A regime-aware engine tightens where a signal is abnormal for the trend and loosens where it is expected.
No active threshold modifiers — no indicator is abnormally weak for the current regime right now.
How to read it
Primary trend is classified from SPY (50/200-day position, 200-day slope, 63-day momentum, drawdown). Because that is computable at every historical bar, each indicator's distribution is collected within the current primary-trend regime across the engine's ~3-year window — the regime percentile and regime z say how unusual today's value is for this regime, beside the universal percentile. The other four dimensions (participation, risk appetite, leadership, volatility) classify the live composite. Thresholds are uncalibrated pending the planned backtest.
For information and discussion only — a reading of market internals, not investment advice. Feeds the Cross-Toolbox Alert Stack; pairs with Breadth-of-Breadth and the Beta-Instability X-Ray.