Market X-Ray · Toolbox 3
Ratio-Quality Decomposition
A rising ratio is ambiguous. IWM/SPY can rise because small-caps led — or because the S&P fell. This decomposes every structural ratio into what the numerator did versus the denominator, and scores how meaningful the move is: numerator-driven and consistent across horizons = high quality; denominator-driven or one-horizon = low quality, mechanically misleading. Quality is reliability, not direction.
Updated daily · data as of 2026-07-10
Alerts — misleading strength & real weakness
No high-severity ratio-quality alerts right now.
Every ratio — decomposed (21-day)
| Ratio | State | Quality | Driver | Num | Den | Ratio | TF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nasdaq Ex-Top-30 Breadth QNXT/QTOP | ▼ Lagging in rally | 37 | denominator | +1.6% | +2.7% | -1.1% | aligned |
| S&P 500 Equal-Weight Breadth RSP/SPY | ▲ Flat | 39 | numerator | +2.8% | +2.7% | +0.1% | mixed |
| Nasdaq-100 Equal-Weight Breadth QQQE/QQQ | ▲ Strong leadership | 44 | numerator | +3.5% | +2.6% | +0.9% | mixed |
| High-Beta Breadth SPHB/SPLV | ▲ Flat | 45 | numerator | +3.3% | +3.2% | +0.1% | mixed |
| Ex-Mag-7 Breadth XMAG/SPY | ▲ Strong leadership | 49 | numerator | +3.4% | +2.7% | +0.7% | mixed |
| Credit Breadth HYG/LQD | ▲ Absolute leadership | 52 | numerator | +0.6% | -0.5% | +1.1% | aligned |
| Small-Cap Breadth IWM/SPY | ▲ Strong leadership | 53 | numerator | +4.1% | +2.7% | +1.4% | mixed |
| Nasdaq Ex-Tech Breadth QQXT/QQQ | ▼ Lagging in rally | 33 | denominator | +1.3% | +2.6% | -1.3% | aligned |
| Mid-Cap Breadth MDY/SPY | ▼ Lagging in rally | 35 | denominator | +1.4% | +2.7% | -1.2% | aligned |
| Cyclical Breadth XLI/XLU | ▼ Flat | 44 | denominator | +3.9% | +3.9% | -0.1% | mixed |
| Ex-Tech S&P Breadth SPXT/SPY | · Flat | 50 | denominator | +2.7% | +2.7% | 0% | single |
| Semiconductor Leadership SMH/XLK | ▲ Strong leadership | 54 | numerator | +3.4% | +2.9% | +0.5% | aligned |
| Consumer Risk Breadth XLY/XLP | ▲ Strong leadership | 58 | numerator | +1.4% | +0.7% | +0.7% | mixed |
| AI Participation AIQ/XLK | ▼ Numerator lag | 13 | denominator | +0.4% | +2.9% | -2.4% | aligned |
| Software Participation IGV/XLK | ▼ Absolute weakness | 17 | denominator | -0.6% | +2.9% | -3.4% | aligned |
| Large Growth vs Value IWF/IWD | ▼ Numerator lag | 23 | denominator | +1.7% | +4% | -2.2% | mixed |
| Small Growth Breadth IWO/IWN | ▼ Flat | 43 | denominator | +3.9% | +4.1% | -0.1% | mixed |
| Extended-Market Breadth VXF/SPY | ▲ Strong leadership | 49 | numerator | +3.3% | +2.7% | +0.6% | mixed |
| Micro-Cap Breadth IWC/IWM | ▲ Strong leadership | 56 | numerator | +7.1% | +4.1% | +2.9% | mixed |
| Financial Risk Breadth KBE/XLU | ▲ Strong leadership | 61 | numerator | +6.2% | +3.9% | +2.2% | aligned |
| Nasdaq Tech vs Ex-Tech QTEC/QQXT | ▲ Strong leadership | 69 | numerator | +4.6% | +1.3% | +3.3% | mixed |
| Internet Participation FDN/XLK | ▲ Strong leadership | 43 | numerator | +3.2% | +2.9% | +0.3% | mixed |
How to read it
Using log returns, ratio return = numerator return − denominator return, so each leg's contribution is exact. The quality score is the numerator's share of the move scaled by how consistently the ratio points the same way across 1, 21 and 63 days — high when the asset we track is genuinely the story, low when the move is a denominator artifact. Misleading strength = a ratio rising on a denominator collapse; real weakness = a ratio falling because the numerator itself is deteriorating, confirmed across horizons.
For information and discussion only — a reading of market internals, not investment advice. Thresholds are uncalibrated pending the planned backtest. Pairs with Breadth-of-Breadth and the Beta-Instability X-Ray.