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Daily check-in · 2026-10-02

Today on Closelooknet

Friday, October 2, 2026. Everything fresh from the ecosystem on one page.

The Morning 10 Thu, Oct 1, 2026 ~90 seconds 08:00 CET

Nasdaq +1.5% as TLT Breaks 78: Morning 10

Markets — Nasdaq +1.5% before the open even as TLT breaks 78; Tokyo +3.3% on Micron's record quarter

The fourth quarter opens on a green screen — even though long bonds just broke a key level. Nasdaq 100 futures are up 1.5% before the US open, Tokyo's Nikkei closed up 3.29% at about 68,950, and Seoul's Kospi rose about 1%. The spark was Micron's report: a record quarter and a guide well above estimates, read as proof that AI spending is still accelerating. Chip-equipment makers in Tokyo and memory makers in Seoul led.

The odd one out is Micron itself. Revenue came in at $54.2 billion against about $51.1 billion expected, earnings at $33.42 a share against $31.52, and the guide for the current quarter is $61.5 billion against about $57 billion. Yet the share trades only 0.37% above Wednesday's flat close of 1,065.11. Over its last ten reports Micron moved 11.3% on average. The likely reason: a bigger factory budget, about $25 billion in the first half of its new fiscal year, most of it for supply from late 2028.

That is what makes this morning notable: the long-bond fund TLT closed at 77.78 on Wednesday, below 78 at the close and its lowest in a year, and stocks are rallying anyway. Usually falling long bonds weigh on growth stocks first; today the Nasdaq leads. Today: Accenture before the open, jobless claims and the ISM factory survey, Nike after the close. Hong Kong and mainland China are closed for Golden Week; Friday brings the September jobs report.

  1. Risk-on — Nasdaq 100 futures +1.5%, Nikkei +3.29% on chip stocks, Kospi up about 1%
  2. Micron — beat on every line, guided 8% above estimates; a stock that usually moves 11% is up 0.37%
  3. Bonds — TLT closes at 77.78, below 78 at the close this time; seventh down day in a row
  4. Rebalance done — Atlassian, Lenovo and Illumina give back weight as four indices reset to an equal share
  5. AI Board — 110 of 126 Rubin names still losing strength, 34 of 40 Agentic Winners gaining
  6. Software — ServiceNow +3.1%, Salesforce +1.9%, IGV +1.2%; chips mixed as Arm and ASML slip
  7. Jabil — beat and raised, sank 10% to 286.86
  8. Movers — Fair Isaac -4.1% to 592.47, below 600; Meta -1.8%, Eli Lilly -2.3%, Apple +1.1%
  9. Oil — Brent fund BNO +2.3% after Tuesday's drop; gold -0.5%, silver -1.8%
  10. Today — Accenture before the open, jobless claims and the factory survey, Nike after the close

  1. Risk-on — Nasdaq 100 futures +1.5%, Nikkei +3.29% on chip stocks, Kospi up about 1%

    Context

    QQQ^N225EWJEWY

    What
    Tokyo's Nikkei 225 closed 3.29% higher at about 68,950, from 66,753.72 on Wednesday; chip-equipment and AI names led on Micron's results. Japan's quarterly Tankan survey showed large manufacturers at +24, up from +22 in June and just under the +25 expected. Seoul's Kospi opened lower, then turned up about 1% to around 6,920, with Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix up about 2% each by midday. Hong Kong and mainland China are closed for Golden Week. In the US, Nasdaq 100 futures are up 1.5% before the open — a strong start to the fourth quarter after the S&P 500 closed Wednesday 0.25% lower at 7,651.54.
    If
    The Nasdaq 100 holds a gain of 1% or more into the close.
    Why
    Stocks are rising while long bonds fall to a one-year low. Normally higher long yields hit growth stocks first; a 1.5% Nasdaq gain on the morning after TLT broke 78 says buyers care more about AI earnings than about rates right now. If the gain holds through the session, Wednesday's soft finish was quarter-end selling, not a turn.
    Then
    With China on holiday until 8 October, Tokyo and Seoul carry Asia's reaction for the rest of the week. The Midday 10 checks whether the US open holds the futures gain.

    Open the detail →

  2. Micron — beat on every line, guided 8% above estimates; a stock that usually moves 11% is up 0.37%

    Context

    MU000660.KS005930.KSSNDKDRAM

    What
    Fiscal fourth quarter: revenue $54.23 billion (about $51.07 billion expected), adjusted earnings $33.42 a share ($31.52 expected), gross margin about 87%. Memory chips for servers and PCs (DRAM) brought in a record $39.8 billion, 73% of revenue and up 343% on the year; DRAM prices rose in the high teens from the previous quarter. Most of Micron's 2027 supply of high-bandwidth memory for AI chips is already sold under contract at higher prices. Guide for the current quarter: $61.5 billion plus or minus $1.5 billion (about $57 billion expected), earnings $38.15 a share (about $35.40 expected), margin about 86.25% — which Micron calls the low point for the year. Spending on plants and equipment rises to about $11.5 billion this quarter and about $25 billion in the first half, most of it on new cleanrooms for late 2028 and beyond. The share closed flat at 1,065.11 and trades 0.37% higher before the open — while the Nasdaq 100 futures are up 1.5%. On the morning after a record quarter, Micron is lagging the market. That is unusual for this stock. Over its last ten reports Micron moved on average 11.3% in the three sessions after the numbers — up 22.6% in December 2025, down 12.4% in March, up 9.2% in June — and never less than 3.1%. Not once did it finish flat.
    If
    Micron closes Thursday's session above 1,065.11.
    Why
    When a company beats this clearly and the share does not move, the good news was already in the price — Micron is up about 550% in a year. The new worry is supply: more factories mean more memory in 2028, and memory prices have always fallen when supply caught up with demand. Micron says prices are still rising, but more slowly.
    Then
    Our Print Record scores the reaction on the close of Monday 5 October: paid at 1,097.06 or higher, sold below 1,033.16, flat in between.

    Open the detail →

  3. Sector Rotation Where the money is rotating across the eleven sectors — the board behind the day’s leadership story. Open the rotation board →

  4. Bonds — TLT closes at 77.78, below 78 at the close this time; seventh down day in a row

    Context

    TLTTLHIEF^TYX

    What
    The long-bond fund TLT fell 0.58% to 77.78, its lowest close in a year and 3.3% lower over five sessions. On Tuesday it traded at 77.93 at midday and closed back at 78.23; on Wednesday the break held at the close. The shorter funds lost less: TLH (10-20 years) -0.35% to 92.17, IEF (7-10 years) -0.16% to 89.31. The drop came on a day with soft inflation news: core PCE rose 0.2% in August against 0.3% expected. Long bonds fell anyway, a sign that the selling is about supply and global rates, not this month's inflation number.
    If
    TLT stays below 78 through Friday's jobs report.
    Why
    A close below a level that held for weeks turns a test into a break. Japan's rates are rising and European long bonds are weak, so US long bonds are being sold alongside them.
    Then
    The Global letter named 74 as the next level below. Friday's jobs report is the next test.

    Open the detail →

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The Midday 10 Thu, Oct 1, 2026 ~60 seconds 12:15 ET

September was a broken market. Three in four S&P 500 stocks fell during the month, CNBC reported, and Morgan Stanley counts only 49% of index members above their 200-day average, down from about 75% earlier this year. The index itself held up because a handful of very large companies, most of them tied to AI, kept rising.

Our own chip section shows the other side of that split. Of the 85 chip stocks we track, 68 rose in September and 66 trade above their 200-day average. Either you are somewhere in AI right now, or you are losing.

Today repeats the pattern with a twist. All three US indices are lower: the Dow down 0.50%, the S&P 500 0.32%, the Nasdaq 0.39%. Banks, home improvement, travel and online retail all fall. The winners include companies the market had filed under AI losers in the first half: Accenture jumps 17.9%, the IT-services group follows, and software is higher. Memory and storage, the big winners of the first half, stay flat.

US intraday quotes at about 11:55 ET (15:55 UTC); moves are measured against Wednesday's closes. Intraday prints are not closes. European figures are closes. September breadth for the S&P 500 as reported by CNBC and Morgan Stanley; our chip-section figures from the Closelooknet data lake at Wednesday's close. Accenture and Synopsys news from the company releases and investor-day announcements as reported. Tokyo closes for Lasertec and Advantest.

  1. Breadth: 75% of S&P 500 stocks fell in September; only 49% trade above their 200-day average (Morgan Stanley), from about 75%; in our chip section 68 of 85 rose and 66 sit above the 200-day
  2. All three indices lower: Dow 50,651.13 (−0.50%), S&P 500 7,626.87 (−0.32%), Nasdaq 26,755.92 (−0.39%); equal-weight fund RSP −0.13%, small caps IWM −0.28%; chip index SOX +0.47%, software fund IGV +0.25%; TLT $77.65 (+0.23%), 30-year yield 5.61%
  3. Accenture $216.21 (+17.91%) on record bookings; IT services follow: Cognizant +6.72%, EPAM +6.48%, Infosys +5.90%, Gartner +3.76%, Capgemini +7.38% at the Paris close
  4. Chip-design software: Synopsys $471.56 (+8.42%) after its investor day, Cadence $340.49 (+3.12%)
  5. The first-half losers come back: Microsoft fell 22.9% in the first half and rose 37.5% in the third quarter; Accenture −53.6%, then +47.4%; software fund IGV −14.3%, then +17.5%
  6. AI hardware suppliers jump: Coherent $316.10 (+9.83%), Lumentum $1,057.23 (+8.85%); Arista +0.35%, Nvidia +0.35%, Broadcom −1.24%; in Tokyo, Lasertec +11.14% and Advantest +9.78%
  7. Memory and storage flat after superb results: Micron $1,049.70 (−1.45%), Sandisk unchanged, Seagate −0.68%; Micron is 13.5% below its June high, Sandisk 25.5%, Seagate 16.3%
  8. Consumer spending weak worldwide: Mercado Libre $1,681.85 (−2.70%), Sea −2.85%, Disney −3.01%, Home Depot −1.68%, Lowe's −2.01%, Booking −1.33%; Amazon $246.70 (−0.98%), down 4.1% in a month to Wednesday
  9. Banks slip: Goldman Sachs $887.85 (−1.39%), Morgan Stanley −2.21%, JPMorgan −0.66%; financials fund XLF −0.68%, regional banks KRE −1.02%
  10. Europe weak across the board at the close: CAC 40 7,835.31 (−1.62%), FTSE 100 −1.64%, Euro Stoxx 50 −1.49%, DAX −1.03%; LVMH −2.69%, Hermès −2.62%

The ten lines

  1. 1

    LEVEL Breadth: 75% of S&P 500 stocks fell in September; only 49% trade above their 200-day average (Morgan Stanley), from about 75%; in our chip section 68 of 85 rose and 66 sit above the 200-day

    SPYRSPSOXXSMH

    Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson reads it as a market narrowing into quality and advises staying with large, profitable companies while adding riskier stocks in October. Strategists also note that the median S&P 500 company is still growing earnings by more than 15%. Our data says where the narrow market lives: in chips, 80% of names rose last month.

  2. 2

    DOWN All three indices lower: Dow 50,651.13 (−0.50%), S&P 500 7,626.87 (−0.32%), Nasdaq 26,755.92 (−0.39%); equal-weight fund RSP −0.13%, small caps IWM −0.28%; chip index SOX +0.47%, software fund IGV +0.25%; TLT $77.65 (+0.23%), 30-year yield 5.61%

    ^DJISPYQQQRSPIWMTLT

    The morning's green futures did not hold. The broad market is red, while chips and software are slightly higher. Software opened strong and has given back most of it. Long bonds bounce a little but stay below the 78 level that broke on Wednesday.

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  4. 3

    UP Accenture $216.21 (+17.91%) on record bookings; IT services follow: Cognizant +6.72%, EPAM +6.48%, Infosys +5.90%, Gartner +3.76%, Capgemini +7.38% at the Paris close

    ACNEPAMITCTSHINFYCAP.PA

    Revenue of $18.7 billion and EPS of $3.29 beat the estimates on our card ($18.03 billion, $3.18). New bookings were $22.2 billion in the quarter and a record $84.5 billion for the year, with 141 contracts worth $100 million or more. The fear all year was that AI agents shrink the hours Accenture bills; the bookings say companies are paying Accenture to put AI to work. On our Print Record card, the three-session window after a report never moved more than 6.0%, and seven of ten moved less than 3%. Today's jump comes before this window even opens: it starts from today's close and is graded on Tuesday's close.

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