— C+

Market X-Ray · Toolbox 6 · Cross-Toolbox Scoring

Market Structure Alert Stack

Four toolboxes — Beta-Instability, Breadth-of-Breadth, Ratio-Quality and the Divergence Scanner — each raise their own alerts. On their own they're noise. This layer asks the only question that matters: do they agree? It clusters every alert by what it implies for the market and scores each cluster by how many independent tools confirm it — turning dozens of isolated signals into one ranked stack and a single Master Risk Score.

Master Market-Structure Risk 76 high
Top-priority signal Narrowing participation Regime: Leadership exhaustion

Updated daily · data as of 2026-06-29

Confirmed clusters 2 ≥2 toolboxes agree
Alert clusters 5 by market implication
Raw alerts 32 across all four tools
Dominant Narrowing participation top-priority implication

The stack — ranked, confirmed clusters

1
Narrowing participation bearish
66 high
BetaBreadthRatio-QualityDivergence 3/4 confirm · 14 alerts
  • Ratio-Quality100 Ex-Tech S&P Breadth rising mainly because SPY fell sharply — a mechanically misleading improvement.
  • Ratio-Quality100 Nasdaq Ex-Tech Breadth rising mainly because QQQ fell sharply — a mechanically misleading improvement.
  • Ratio-Quality100 Software Participation falling on IGV weakness — IGV dropping faster than XLK, a high-quality warning.
  • Ratio-Quality100 Internet Participation falling on FDN weakness — FDN dropping faster than XLK, a high-quality warning.
  • Ratio-Quality100 AI Participation falling on AIQ weakness — AIQ dropping faster than XLK, a high-quality warning.
  • Beta97 ARKK/QQQ: decoupling
  • Beta76 SPXT/SPY: decoupling
  • Beta76 MDY/SPY: decoupling — upside participation deteriorating (sharp), downside-beta expansion (sharp)
  • Divergence67 QQQ has risen over 63 days while QQQE/QQQ has not confirmed (+32% gap) — Nasdaq-100 strength is not confirmed by the average Nasdaq stock.
  • Divergence67 QQQ has risen over 63 days while QNXT/QTOP has not confirmed (+36.7% gap) — The lower 70 Nasdaq-100 names are not confirming the top 30.
  • Divergence64 SPY has risen over 63 days while RSP/SPY has not confirmed (+21% gap) — S&P 500 headline strength is not confirmed by the average (equal-weight) stock.
  • Divergence64 SPY has risen over 63 days while SPXT/SPY has not confirmed (+24.9% gap) — Non-tech S&P 500 is not keeping pace with the headline.
  • Divergence57 SPY has risen over 63 days while MDY/SPY has not confirmed (+18.5% gap) — Mid-caps are not confirming large-cap strength.
  • Beta57 QNXT/QQQ: decoupling — upside-beta collapse, negative beta asymmetry, upside participation deteriorating (sharp)
2
Leadership exhaustion bearish
55 moderate
BetaBreadthRatio-QualityDivergence 1/4 confirm · 3 alerts
  • Divergence69 XLK has risen over 63 days while IGV/XLK has not confirmed (+74.6% gap) — Software is not confirming broad-tech strength.
  • Divergence66 SMH is up over 21d but the move is inefficient (choppy) — Semis are higher but on a noisy, low-efficiency path — leadership without clean momentum.
  • Divergence65 XLK has risen over 63 days while AIQ/XLK has not confirmed (+44.5% gap) — The AI basket is not confirming broad-tech leadership.
3
Hidden fragility bearish
52 moderate
BetaBreadthRatio-QualityDivergence 2/4 confirm · 11 alerts
  • Beta100 XSD/SPY: fragile — downside-beta expansion, negative beta asymmetry, downside-beta expansion (sharp)
  • Beta68 XSD/QQQ: fragile — downside-beta expansion, negative beta asymmetry, downside-beta expansion (sharp)
  • Beta51 SMH/QQQ: fragile — downside-beta expansion, negative beta asymmetry, upside participation deteriorating (sharp), downside-beta expansion (sharp)
  • Beta51 IWM/SPY: neutral — negative beta asymmetry, upside participation deteriorating (sharp), downside-beta expansion (sharp)
  • Divergence50 SPY is holding over 21d while IWM/SPY downside beta is rising — Small-cap downside beta is rising while the index holds — latent fragility beneath a stable tape.
  • Divergence47 SMH is rising over 21d while SMH/XLK upside participation is fading — Semis are rising but their upside beta to broad tech is fading — leadership quality is exhausting.
  • Beta47 RSP/SPY: fragile — upside-beta collapse, negative beta asymmetry, upside participation deteriorating (sharp)
  • Beta33 SMH/XLK: fragile — downside-beta expansion, negative beta asymmetry, early beta improvement, upside participation deteriorating (sharp), downside-beta expansion (sharp)
  • Beta19 QTOP/QQQ: fragile — downside-beta expansion, negative beta asymmetry
  • Beta7 XMAG/SPY: healthy-leader — upside participation deteriorating (sharp)
  • Beta6 QQQE/QQQ: neutral — negative beta asymmetry
4
Distribution risk bearish
50 moderate
BetaBreadthRatio-QualityDivergence 1/4 confirm · 1 alert
  • Beta55 IGV/XLK: distribution — beta-adjusted underperformance
5
Mega-cap concentration bearish
49 moderate
BetaBreadthRatio-QualityDivergence 1/4 confirm · 3 alerts
  • Divergence60 QQQ has risen over 63 days while QQQ/QQQE has not confirmed (+32% gap) — Nasdaq gains are concentrating in the largest names.
  • Divergence60 QQQ has risen over 63 days while QTOP/QNXT has not confirmed (+36.7% gap) — The top-30 Nasdaq names are increasingly carrying the index.
  • Divergence58 SPY has risen over 63 days while SPY/RSP has not confirmed (+21% gap) — The S&P advance is becoming more dependent on the cap-weighted mega-caps.

How to read it

Every toolbox's alerts are normalised into one schema and mapped to a market implication (narrowing, risk-off, leadership exhaustion, hidden fragility, broadening…). Alerts that imply the same thing form a cluster, scored by the spec blend: base severity (0.25), toolbox confirmation (0.20, how many of the four agree), independence (0.15, distinct evidence types — price vs beta vs breadth vs credit), regime relevance (0.15), persistence (0.10), worsening (0.10) and importance (0.05). A cluster confirmed by three independent tools is a high-conviction read; one tool alone is a watch item. The Master Risk Score tracks the top cluster, lifted when several distinct bearish clusters fire at once.

For information and discussion only — a reading of market internals, not investment advice. Thresholds are uncalibrated pending the planned backtest. Built on Beta-Instability, Breadth-of-Breadth, Ratio-Quality and the Divergence Scanner.