— C+

Market X-Ray · Toolbox 6 · Cross-Toolbox Scoring

Market Structure Alert Stack

Four toolboxes — Beta-Instability, Breadth-of-Breadth, Ratio-Quality and the Divergence Scanner — each raise their own alerts. On their own they're noise. This layer asks the only question that matters: do they agree? It clusters every alert by what it implies for the market and scores each cluster by how many independent tools confirm it — turning dozens of isolated signals into one ranked stack and a single Master Risk Score.

Master Market-Structure Risk 71 high
Top-priority signal Narrowing participation Regime: Leadership exhaustion

Updated daily · data as of 2026-07-10

Confirmed clusters 2 ≥2 toolboxes agree
Alert clusters 5 by market implication
Raw alerts 26 across all four tools
Dominant Narrowing participation top-priority implication

The stack — ranked, confirmed clusters

1
Narrowing participation bearish
61 moderate
BetaBreadthRatio-QualityDivergence 2/4 confirm · 8 alerts
  • Beta100 XSD/SPY: decoupling — downside-beta expansion (sharp)
  • Beta94 ARKK/QQQ: decoupling
  • Beta82 IGV/XLK: decoupling
  • Beta78 SPXT/SPY: decoupling — upside participation deteriorating (sharp)
  • Divergence62 SPY has risen over 63 days while RSP/SPY has not confirmed (+14.1% gap) — S&P 500 headline strength is not confirmed by the average (equal-weight) stock.
  • Divergence55 SPY has risen over 63 days while SPXT/SPY has not confirmed (+18.1% gap) — Non-tech S&P 500 is not keeping pace with the headline.
  • Divergence52 SPY has risen over 21 days while MDY/SPY has not confirmed (+4% gap) — Mid-caps are not confirming large-cap strength.
  • Divergence50 QQQ has risen over 21 days while QNXT/QTOP has not confirmed (+3.7% gap) — The lower 70 Nasdaq-100 names are not confirming the top 30.
2
Leadership exhaustion bearish
53 moderate
BetaBreadthRatio-QualityDivergence 1/4 confirm · 4 alerts
  • Divergence68 SMH is up over 21d but the move is inefficient (choppy) — Semis are higher but on a noisy, low-efficiency path — leadership without clean momentum.
  • Divergence66 SPY is up over 21d but the move is inefficient (choppy) — The S&P is higher but the move is inefficient — a choppy, low-quality grind rather than a clean trend.
  • Divergence59 XLK has risen over 21 days while IGV/XLK has not confirmed (+6.5% gap) — Software is not confirming broad-tech strength.
  • Divergence56 XLK has risen over 21 days while AIQ/XLK has not confirmed (+5.4% gap) — The AI basket is not confirming broad-tech leadership.
3
Hidden fragility bearish
52 moderate
BetaBreadthRatio-QualityDivergence 2/4 confirm · 10 alerts
  • Beta82 XSD/QQQ: fragile — downside-beta expansion, negative beta asymmetry, downside-beta expansion (sharp)
  • Divergence62 SPY is rising over 21d while IWM/SPY upside participation is fading — The S&P is rising but small-caps’ upside (up-day) beta is fading — they are not capturing the advance.
  • Beta61 SMH/QQQ: fragile — downside-beta expansion, negative beta asymmetry, upside participation deteriorating (sharp), downside-beta expansion (sharp)
  • Beta55 IWM/SPY: neutral — upside participation deteriorating (sharp)
  • Beta55 RSP/SPY: fragile — upside-beta collapse, negative beta asymmetry, upside participation deteriorating (sharp)
  • Beta48 SMH/XLK: fragile — downside-beta expansion, negative beta asymmetry, downside-beta expansion (sharp)
  • Divergence41 SMH is rising over 21d while SMH/XLK upside participation is fading — Semis are rising but their upside beta to broad tech is fading — leadership quality is exhausting.
  • Beta16 QTOP/QQQ: fragile — downside-beta expansion, negative beta asymmetry
  • Beta15 QQQE/QQQ: neutral — negative beta asymmetry
  • Beta2 XMAG/SPY: healthy-leader — upside participation deteriorating (sharp)
4
Distribution risk bearish
52 moderate
BetaBreadthRatio-QualityDivergence 1/4 confirm · 2 alerts
  • Beta65 MDY/SPY: distribution — beta-adjusted underperformance, upside participation deteriorating (sharp)
  • Beta61 QNXT/QQQ: distribution — upside-beta collapse, negative beta asymmetry, beta-adjusted underperformance
5
Mega-cap concentration bearish
50 moderate
BetaBreadthRatio-QualityDivergence 1/4 confirm · 2 alerts
  • Divergence52 SPY has risen over 63 days while SPY/RSP has not confirmed (+14.1% gap) — The S&P advance is becoming more dependent on the cap-weighted mega-caps.
  • Divergence43 QQQ has risen over 21 days while QTOP/QNXT has not confirmed (+3.7% gap) — The top-30 Nasdaq names are increasingly carrying the index.

How to read it

Every toolbox's alerts are normalised into one schema and mapped to a market implication (narrowing, risk-off, leadership exhaustion, hidden fragility, broadening…). Alerts that imply the same thing form a cluster, scored by the spec blend: base severity (0.25), toolbox confirmation (0.20, how many of the four agree), independence (0.15, distinct evidence types — price vs beta vs breadth vs credit), regime relevance (0.15), persistence (0.10), worsening (0.10) and importance (0.05). A cluster confirmed by three independent tools is a high-conviction read; one tool alone is a watch item. The Master Risk Score tracks the top cluster, lifted when several distinct bearish clusters fire at once.

For information and discussion only — a reading of market internals, not investment advice. Thresholds are uncalibrated pending the planned backtest. Built on Beta-Instability, Breadth-of-Breadth, Ratio-Quality and the Divergence Scanner.