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Market X-Ray · Toolbox 6 · Cross-Toolbox Scoring

Market Structure Alert Stack

Four toolboxes — Beta-Instability, Breadth-of-Breadth, Ratio-Quality and the Divergence Scanner — each raise their own alerts. On their own they're noise. This layer asks the only question that matters: do they agree? It clusters every alert by what it implies for the market and scores each cluster by how many independent tools confirm it — turning dozens of isolated signals into one ranked stack and a single Master Risk Score.

Master Market-Structure Risk 70 high
Top-priority signal Narrowing participation Regime: Leadership exhaustion

Updated daily · data as of 2026-09-01

Confirmed clusters 2 ≥2 toolboxes agree
Alert clusters 6 by market implication
Raw alerts 26 across all four tools
Dominant Narrowing participation top-priority implication

The stack — ranked, confirmed clusters

1
Narrowing participation bearish
60 moderate
BetaBreadthRatio-QualityDivergence 2/4 confirm · 5 alerts
  • Ratio-Quality100 High-Beta Breadth rising mainly because SPLV fell sharply — a mechanically misleading improvement.
  • Ratio-Quality100 Micro-Cap Breadth rising mainly because IWM fell sharply — a mechanically misleading improvement.
  • Ratio-Quality82 Cyclical Breadth falling on XLI weakness — XLI dropping faster than XLU, a high-quality warning.
  • Ratio-Quality58 Financial Risk Breadth falling on KBE weakness — KBE dropping faster than XLU, a high-quality warning.
  • Beta44 RSP/SPY: decoupling — upside-beta collapse, negative beta asymmetry, beta-adjusted underperformance, upside participation deteriorating (sharp), downside-beta expansion (sharp)
2
Leadership exhaustion bearish
58 moderate
BetaBreadthRatio-QualityDivergence 1/4 confirm · 1 alert
  • Divergence92 SPY is up over 21d but the move is inefficient (choppy) — The S&P is higher but the move is inefficient — a choppy, low-quality grind rather than a clean trend.
3
Broadening participation bullish
50 moderate
BetaBreadthRatio-QualityDivergence 1/4 confirm · 2 alerts
  • Divergence63 QQQ is weak over 63 days while QQQE/QQQ is improving (-8.6% gap) — a constructive (bullish) non-confirmation.
  • Divergence60 QQQ is weak over 63 days while QNXT/QTOP is improving (-8.8% gap) — a constructive (bullish) non-confirmation.
4
Hidden fragility bearish
50 moderate
BetaBreadthRatio-QualityDivergence 2/4 confirm · 13 alerts
  • Divergence62 SPY is rising over 21d while IWM/SPY upside participation is fading — The S&P is rising but small-caps’ upside (up-day) beta is fading — they are not capturing the advance.
  • Beta50 IGV/XLK: neutral — upside-beta collapse, early beta improvement
  • Beta43 XSD/SPY: neutral — downside-beta expansion, downside-beta expansion (sharp)
  • Beta41 ARKK/QQQ: neutral — early beta improvement, upside participation deteriorating (sharp), downside-beta expansion (sharp)
  • Divergence40 SPY is rising over 21d while HYG/SPY upside participation is fading — Equities are rising but high-yield credit’s upside beta is fading — credit isn’t capturing the risk-on.
  • Beta39 QNXT/QQQ: neutral — upside-beta collapse, negative beta asymmetry, early beta improvement
  • Beta39 SPXT/SPY: neutral — upside-beta collapse, negative beta asymmetry, beta-adjusted underperformance, upside participation deteriorating (sharp), downside-beta expansion (sharp)
  • Beta36 SMH/QQQ: fragile — downside-beta expansion, negative beta asymmetry
  • Beta35 XSD/QQQ: fragile — downside-beta expansion, negative beta asymmetry, downside-beta expansion (sharp)
  • Beta30 SMH/XLK: fragile — downside-beta expansion, negative beta asymmetry, beta-adjusted underperformance, upside participation deteriorating (sharp), downside-beta expansion (sharp)
  • Beta29 QQQE/QQQ: neutral — negative beta asymmetry, beta-adjusted underperformance
  • Beta14 HYG/SPY: fragile — upside-beta collapse, negative beta asymmetry, downside-beta expansion (sharp)
  • Beta8 XMAG/SPY: neutral — downside-beta expansion (sharp)
5
Distribution risk bearish
50 moderate
BetaBreadthRatio-QualityDivergence 1/4 confirm · 2 alerts
  • Beta54 IWM/SPY: distribution — negative beta asymmetry, beta-adjusted underperformance, upside participation deteriorating (sharp), downside-beta expansion (sharp)
  • Beta52 MDY/SPY: distribution — upside-beta collapse, beta-adjusted underperformance, upside participation deteriorating (sharp), downside-beta expansion (sharp)
6
Early recovery bullish
48 moderate
BetaBreadthRatio-QualityDivergence 1/4 confirm · 3 alerts
  • Divergence64 XLK is weak over 63 days while IGV/XLK is improving (-15.1% gap) — a constructive (bullish) non-confirmation.
  • Divergence57 QQQ is weak over 63 days while QQQ/QQQE is improving (-8.6% gap) — a constructive (bullish) non-confirmation.
  • Divergence57 QQQ is weak over 63 days while QTOP/QNXT is improving (-8.8% gap) — a constructive (bullish) non-confirmation.

How to read it

Every toolbox's alerts are normalised into one schema and mapped to a market implication (narrowing, risk-off, leadership exhaustion, hidden fragility, broadening…). Alerts that imply the same thing form a cluster, scored by the spec blend: base severity (0.25), toolbox confirmation (0.20, how many of the four agree), independence (0.15, distinct evidence types — price vs beta vs breadth vs credit), regime relevance (0.15), persistence (0.10), worsening (0.10) and importance (0.05). A cluster confirmed by three independent tools is a high-conviction read; one tool alone is a watch item. The Master Risk Score tracks the top cluster, lifted when several distinct bearish clusters fire at once.

For information and discussion only — a reading of market internals, not investment advice. Thresholds are uncalibrated pending the planned backtest. Built on Beta-Instability, Breadth-of-Breadth, Ratio-Quality and the Divergence Scanner.

FAQ · from the current data · as of 2026-09-01

Quick answers

What does the Market Structure Alert Stack show?

It fuses alerts from four independent Market X-Ray toolboxes — Beta-Instability, Breadth-of-Breadth, Ratio-Quality and the Divergence Scanner — into clusters by market implication, then scores each cluster by how many of the four tools confirm it. The result is one Master Market-Structure Risk Score and a ranked, de-duplicated alert stack.

What is the Master Market-Structure Risk Score right now?

As of 2026-09-01, the Master Market-Structure Risk Score is 70, labeled "high".

How many alert clusters are confirmed by multiple toolboxes?

As of 2026-09-01, 2 of 6 alert clusters are confirmed by two or more toolboxes, out of 26 raw alerts across all four tools.

How is a cluster’s score calculated?

Each cluster blends base severity (25%), toolbox confirmation (20%, how many of the four tools agree), independence of evidence (15%), regime relevance (15%), persistence (10%), worsening (10%) and importance (5%). A cluster confirmed by three independent tools reads as high-conviction; one tool alone is a watch item.