— C+

Market X-Ray · Toolbox 6 · Cross-Toolbox Scoring

Market Structure Alert Stack

Four toolboxes — Beta-Instability, Breadth-of-Breadth, Ratio-Quality and the Divergence Scanner — each raise their own alerts. On their own they're noise. This layer asks the only question that matters: do they agree? It clusters every alert by what it implies for the market and scores each cluster by how many independent tools confirm it — turning dozens of isolated signals into one ranked stack and a single Master Risk Score.

Master Market-Structure Risk 77 high
Top-priority signal Narrowing participation Regime: Leadership exhaustion

Updated daily · data as of 2026-07-17

Confirmed clusters 1 ≥2 toolboxes agree
Alert clusters 7 by market implication
Raw alerts 26 across all four tools
Dominant Narrowing participation top-priority implication

The stack — ranked, confirmed clusters

1
Narrowing participation bearish
67 high
BetaBreadthRatio-QualityDivergence 3/4 confirm · 11 alerts
  • Ratio-Quality100 Internet Participation rising mainly because XLK fell sharply — a mechanically misleading improvement.
  • Ratio-Quality100 Credit Breadth rising mainly because LQD fell sharply — a mechanically misleading improvement.
  • Ratio-Quality100 Semiconductor Leadership falling on SMH weakness — SMH dropping faster than XLK, a high-quality warning.
  • Ratio-Quality100 AI Participation falling on AIQ weakness — AIQ dropping faster than XLK, a high-quality warning.
  • Beta100 XSD/SPY: decoupling — downside-beta expansion (sharp)
  • Beta88 ARKK/QQQ: decoupling — upside participation deteriorating (sharp)
  • Beta83 IGV/XLK: decoupling — upside-beta collapse
  • Beta75 SPXT/SPY: decoupling — upside participation deteriorating (sharp)
  • Ratio-Quality69 Extended-Market Breadth rising mainly because SPY fell sharply — a mechanically misleading improvement.
  • Ratio-Quality50 Nasdaq Ex-Top-30 Breadth falling on QNXT weakness — QNXT dropping faster than QTOP, a high-quality warning.
  • Divergence44 SPY has risen over 63 days while SPXT/SPY has not confirmed (+9.1% gap) — Non-tech S&P 500 is not keeping pace with the headline.
2
Risk-off / credit non-confirmation bearish
60 moderate
BetaBreadthRatio-QualityDivergence 1/4 confirm · 1 alert
  • Divergence63 SPY has risen over 63 days while XLY/XLP has not confirmed (+13.8% gap) — Discretionary is not outperforming staples — a cautious consumer.
3
Broadening participation bullish
58 moderate
BetaBreadthRatio-QualityDivergence 1/4 confirm · 1 alert
  • Divergence74 QQQ is weak over 21 days while QQQE/QQQ is improving (-6.3% gap) — a constructive (bullish) non-confirmation.
4
Early recovery bullish
57 moderate
BetaBreadthRatio-QualityDivergence 1/4 confirm · 2 alerts
  • Divergence72 XLK is weak over 21 days while IGV/XLK is improving (-12.5% gap) — a constructive (bullish) non-confirmation.
  • Divergence64 QQQ is weak over 21 days while QQQ/QQQE is improving (-6.3% gap) — a constructive (bullish) non-confirmation.
5
Distribution risk bearish
52 moderate
BetaBreadthRatio-QualityDivergence 1/4 confirm · 2 alerts
  • Beta63 QNXT/QQQ: distribution — upside-beta collapse, negative beta asymmetry, beta-adjusted underperformance
  • Beta62 MDY/SPY: distribution — beta-adjusted underperformance, upside participation deteriorating (sharp)
6
Leadership exhaustion bearish
48 moderate
BetaBreadthRatio-QualityDivergence 1/4 confirm · 1 alert
  • Divergence55 XLK has risen over 63 days while AIQ/XLK has not confirmed (+21.9% gap) — The AI basket is not confirming broad-tech leadership.
7
Hidden fragility bearish
46 moderate
BetaBreadthRatio-QualityDivergence 1/4 confirm · 8 alerts
  • Beta88 XSD/QQQ: fragile — downside-beta expansion, negative beta asymmetry, downside-beta expansion (sharp)
  • Beta70 SMH/QQQ: fragile — downside-beta expansion, negative beta asymmetry, upside participation deteriorating (sharp), downside-beta expansion (sharp)
  • Beta60 RSP/SPY: fragile — negative beta asymmetry
  • Beta57 IWM/SPY: neutral — upside participation deteriorating (sharp)
  • Beta57 SMH/XLK: fragile — downside-beta expansion, negative beta asymmetry, downside-beta expansion (sharp)
  • Beta23 QQQE/QQQ: neutral — negative beta asymmetry
  • Beta23 QTOP/QQQ: fragile — downside-beta expansion, negative beta asymmetry
  • Beta9 XMAG/SPY: neutral — upside participation deteriorating (sharp)

How to read it

Every toolbox's alerts are normalised into one schema and mapped to a market implication (narrowing, risk-off, leadership exhaustion, hidden fragility, broadening…). Alerts that imply the same thing form a cluster, scored by the spec blend: base severity (0.25), toolbox confirmation (0.20, how many of the four agree), independence (0.15, distinct evidence types — price vs beta vs breadth vs credit), regime relevance (0.15), persistence (0.10), worsening (0.10) and importance (0.05). A cluster confirmed by three independent tools is a high-conviction read; one tool alone is a watch item. The Master Risk Score tracks the top cluster, lifted when several distinct bearish clusters fire at once.

For information and discussion only — a reading of market internals, not investment advice. Thresholds are uncalibrated pending the planned backtest. Built on Beta-Instability, Breadth-of-Breadth, Ratio-Quality and the Divergence Scanner.