Factor Regime · daily · SPMO vs SPLV · as of Aug 10, 2026
Momentum vs Low Volatility
The market's risk appetite, read as one line: what it pays for recent winners (SPMO) against what it pays for defensive low-vol (SPLV). Leadership rotates under the index before the index moves — this ratio is where it shows first.
Mechanical read
Momentum repair attempt below trend
Ratio 1.9643 · 92.52th percentile of the window · below the 50-day trend · 20d +0.24% · 60d -2.35%
Ratio SPMO/SPLV
1.9643
indexed 155.99 vs 100 at 2024-06-03
Rate of change
+0.24%
20 sessions · 60d -2.35%
Momentum leg — SPMO
148.7
20d -0.69% · 60d +1.65%
Low-vol leg — SPLV
75.7
20d -0.93% · 60d +4.10%
SPMO / SPLV — indexed to 100 at 2024-06-03 · dashed = 50-day trend
How to read it
Four mechanical states, from the ratio against its 50-day trend and the sign of the 20-day rate of change: momentum leading (above trend, rising — risk appetite building), cooling above trend (above trend, falling — leadership being withdrawn while the tape still looks fine), defensive rotation (below trend, falling — the regime-change watch state), and repair below trend (below trend, rising — momentum trying to re-take leadership).
The pair is same-issuer and same-universe — both hold S&P 500 subsets — so the ratio isolates the factor preference without index or sector noise. Both legs are in the Morning 10 and Midday 10 boards daily; this page is the standing series behind those mentions.
Computed close-to-close from lake bars, refreshed nightly. A data surface, not advice — an investment diary. Window starts 2024-06-03 (SPMO history).
FAQ · from the current data
Factor Regime — data Q&A
What does the Factor Regime board track?
The ratio between the S&P 500 Momentum ETF (SPMO — recent price winners) and the S&P 500 Low Volatility ETF (SPLV — defensive, low-beta names), read as a risk-appetite gauge: level, 50-day trend, 20-day and 60-day rate of change, plus the absolute levels of both legs. See market regime in the glossary. As of Aug 10, 2026.
Where does the momentum/low-vol ratio stand right now?
As of Aug 10, 2026, the SPMO/SPLV ratio stands at 1.9643 — the 92.52th percentile of the window since 2024-06-03 — below its 50-day trend, with a 20-day rate of change of +0.24% and 60-day of -2.35%. Mechanical read: Momentum repair attempt below trend.
Why is this pair a leading indicator for regime change?
Index level can hold flat while leadership rotates underneath it. When momentum names stop outrunning low-vol names — the ratio rolling over through its trend — risk appetite is being withdrawn before it shows in the index. The reverse, momentum re-taking leadership, tends to precede broad risk-on. The signal is the ratio and its rate of change, not either leg alone.
How are the figures computed?
From daily lake closes of both ETFs, close-to-close, paired on shared trading dates since 2024-06-03 (SPMO history limits the window). The ratio is indexed to 100 at the window start; rate of change is the percentage move of the raw ratio over trailing 20 and 60 sessions. Refreshed nightly after the lake ingests the US close. As of Aug 10, 2026.