Notifications · Latest
What's new at Closelook
Pulse · Weekly Signal · Heresies · Reports · Newsletter · Tape · live trade signals. One stream. The bell at the top of every page lights up when there's something new.
WhatsApp: 1–3 broadcasts a day · editorial only. Substack Notes: 3× a day live notebook. Unfollow anytime.
Recent
- Weekly Signal 2026-05-17Stock Market at a Crossroads
- Heresy 2026-05-16Build a Barbell — Closelook Heresy IIIIn Heresy I we said don't buy US stocks. The standard rebuttal was: fine, diversify globally. In Heresy II we showed why that rebuttal fails — Bessembinder, Chen, Choi and Wei (2023) prove the same sk
- Pulse 2026-05-15Temperature 62 — semis re-lead, Interconnects +18% weekCloselook Temperature ticks up to 62 🟡, still in the transition zone but the cascade is breaking. Three pair-relationships are recorded as BREAKING on the regime monitor — BTC–QQQ, QQQ–SPY, SPY–GLD —
- Heresy 2026-05-15Don't Buy Global Stocks — Closelook Heresy IIA while ago we wrote that you should not buy US stocks. We meant it then, and we mean it now. But that piece was incomplete — it implied that the answer was to step out of the US and into "the world."
- Pulse 2026-05-14Temperature 59 — Rubin surges 25% monthly as cointegration breaks pile upCloselook Temperature sits at 59 🟡, still risk-on but the dispersion underneath is widening. The Rubin Build-Out 100 added 0.50% on the day and is now up 25.1% over the trailing month — a continuatio
- Pulse 2026-05-13Temperature 59 — first crack in semis, defensives bidThe Closelook Temperature sits at 59 🟡, still risk-on but Tuesday's session put a fresh divergence on the tape. The Rubin Build-Out 100 shed 2.95% on the day after a 27.3% trailing-month surge — the
- Pulse 2026-05-12Temperature 61 — semis overheating into the catalyst windowThe Closelook Temperature sits at 61 🟡, flagging a mixed and transitional regime — risk appetite is present but unevenly distributed across the opportunity set. The clearest signal this session come
- Report 2026-05-12Pattern 03 — NVIDIA Strategic Authority Investment
- Weekly Signal 2026-05-10Follow the Wise Men — Pattern 03 Preview
- Heresy 2026-05-08Don't Buy U.S. Stocks — Closelook HeresyMost investors grow up hearing one simple sentence: "Stocks go up over time." The statement is true — but only if we are talking about the market as a whole. It is not true for most individual stocks.
- Pulse 2026-05-07Temperature 62 — Euro-AI leads broad multi-week rally🟡 Temperature 62 — risk-on but uneven. Eight instruments, four up hard, the rest mixed. Euro-AI 50 led the tape: +3.15% on the day, +9.63% on the week, +23.12% on the month. The one-month figure poi
- Heresy 2026-05-07Tech-Free — A Flag of InconvenienceAbove a certain price, good companies are not cheap anymore. Only bad ones are. The value investor's central wager — that mean reversion will rescue what the market has currently mispriced — has paid
- Pulse 2026-05-06Temperature 57 — Rubin surges 2.3%, seven cointegration breaks widen🟡 Temperature sits at 57, firmly in risk-on territory but short of a full green regime, suggesting broad participation with pockets of residual caution. The session's headline mover was the Rubin 10
- Heresy 2026-05-06The First 50% Trap — Closelook HeresyThere's a moment in every great tech story when the average investor exits. Not at the top. Not near it. Typically at +50%. The PnL looks good, the gut whispers don't be greedy, a well-meaning advisor
- Pulse 2026-05-05Gold: More Pain Ahead. Bitcoin: Verdict Still Out.Two safe havens, two very different technical states. Gold is delivering a clean read with a defined target. Bitcoin sits at a fork in the road — and which path it takes depends on a single line on th