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CCST · Index 1 of 4 · AI Build-Out Family · daily scrape · biweekly composite

Compute Spot Tightness

How tight is AI compute on the spot market right now? Hourly GPU rental rates, availability across 40+ cloud providers, and cross-generation price ratios — aggregated daily into a 0-100 regime score. High score = compute is scarce, cascading demand across the GPU stack. Low score = supply is catching up.

Composite 53 / 100 Neutral
As of May 27, 2026
GPU models tracked 86
Source GetDeploying (88 GPUs across 40+ providers)

Layer breakdown

Rental rates 50 60% weight

Weighted average hourly $/h across frontier (B200/H100/H200), legacy (A100), agentic (L40S/4090), long-tail (T4/V100/A10). Percentile rank vs 90-day rolling history.

Availability 57 40% weight

Provider count per GPU model + availability flag. Fewer providers + "Limited" tags = tighter supply.

Cross-generation price ratios Leading derivative · 3-12M lead

Ratios between GPU generations reveal demand structure. Persistent legacy-gen pricing post-new-gen-launch is a strong regime-shift signal.

H100 / B200 0.36

Legacy frontier vs current frontier. Higher = cascading demand across generations.

A100 / H100 0.20

Legacy training tier vs frontier training tier. Higher = legacy still economically wanted.

H200 / H100 0.61

Next-gen premium within Hopper family. Spot-market quirks possible.

Per-tier breakdown

Tier GPUs tracked Avg hourly $ Avg providers Weight
Frontier 3 $1.19 29 40%
Legacy training 1 $0.16 35 30%
Agentic 4 $0.35 13 20%
Longtail 3 $0.09 9 10%

Equity Gap · CCST vs Compute Stocks Diverges 1-6M ahead

CCST composite tracks spot-market compute tightness directly. The equity basket (NVDA, AMD, ORCL, VRT) reflects what the market has already priced in. Divergence between the two is the actionable signal: index rising while stocks lag = bullish setup.

Basket 30d return 16.1% NVDA · AMD · ORCL · VRT (avg over available)
CCST composite 30d delta pending Needs ~30d history (currently accumulating)
Equity Gap pending Positive = stocks lag CCST = bullish setup
Ticker Latest price 30d return
NVDA $214.86 3.2%
AMD $503.89 44.9%
ORCL — —
VRT $323.91 0.1%

AI Build-Out Index Family 4 indices · supply-side AI hardware tracking

CCST · TAISP · MHP · STP — four independent indices, each with its own data source, equity basket, and equity-gap signal. Read them together: when one moves before the others, that's the rotation signal. (Agentic-demand-side tracking lives in the separate Agentic Demand Family.)

Methodology

CCST is the first of the Closelook AI Build-Out Index Family — a 4-index suite tracking the AI hardware supply chain (Compute Spot Tightness · Taiwan AI Supply Pulse · Memory/HBM Pulse · Semicap/Test Pulse). Each index has its own data sources, equity basket, and equity-gap signal. Closelook Agentic Usage Pulse (AUP), tracking demand-side AI adoption, is a separate standalone index in its own track.

CCST specifically focuses on the spot market for GPU compute: rental rates, availability, and cross-generation price ratios. Daily scrape, biweekly composite output. Cron-driven, no manual touch. Three output layers: regime composite (0-100), per-tier breakdown, equity-gap divergence.

Composite score 70+ = tight (cascading demand, supply pressure, bullish for compute infrastructure). 40-70 = neutral. Below 40 = loose (supply catching up, depreciation cycle normalizing).

Index reading is a diary entry on our process, not investment advice.