AI Build-Out Index · 4 indices · supply-side AI hardware tracking
AI Build-Out Index
How tight is the AI hardware supply chain? Four independent indices — spot GPU rental, Taiwan AI-supply revenue, the HBM memory bottleneck, and the semicap equipment cycle — each with its own data source, equity basket, and equity-gap signal. The supply side tells you what capacity looks like; the demand side (the Agentic Demand Index) tells you whether the orders are showing up to consume it. Read one against the other; when one moves before the others, that is the rotation signal.
AI Build-Out Index — equal-weighted average of the 4 live indices below (4 of 4 reporting). Each index counts once; an index with no current reading drops out rather than being filled in.
Compute Spot Tightness
Spot GPU rental + cross-gen ratios
Taiwan AI Supply Pulse
Taiwan ODM + OSAT + foundry revenue
Memory / HBM Pulse
HBM Big-3 supply + equipment + packaging
Semicap / Test Pulse
Equipment cycle gating silicon supply
How the family is structured
The headline. The AI Build-Out Index is the equal-weighted average of the live member composites — each index counts once, and any index not currently reporting is dropped and the rest renormalised (never a neutral placeholder). It reads how tight the AI hardware supply chain is across the four chokepoints below, and moves as they move.
Each member is an independent index with its own data source and cadence: CCST scrapes the spot GPU-rental market daily; TAISP reads monthly revenue from 25 Taiwan-listed AI-hardware suppliers off TWSE filings; MHP tracks the HBM memory bottleneck (SK Hynix · Samsung · Micron); STP follows the semicap equipment cycle (ASML · AMAT · LRCX · Tokyo Electron) that gates silicon supply 6–12 months out. Composite ≥70 = tight (supply pressure), 40–70 = neutral, <40 = loose (supply catching up).
Each index also computes an Equity Gap — the difference between its composite momentum and the momentum of its equity basket. Positive = the operational signal is improving faster than stocks have priced (bullish divergence); negative = stocks have run ahead of the operational signal. The four read together are a rotation map: when one chokepoint tightens before the others, that is the early tell.
Family reading is a diary entry on our process, not investment advice.