Growth
Activity vs trend
47 /100 Trend
Macro Dashboards · Leading Monitor
Growth & Recession
The other half of the macro picture. A leading read on whether US growth is above or below trend, accelerating or decelerating, and how close the forward-looking data sits to recession. ~19 FRED series across five buckets — real activity, labor momentum, classic leading indicators, credit, and interest-sensitive housing.
Updated daily · data as of 2026-06-05
Direction
Accelerating or decelerating — momentum
51 /100 Steady
Recession risk
Forward-looking deterioration
52 /100 Moderate
Recession-risk read
Moderate
Risk reads the forward-looking buckets only — labor momentum, leading indicators, credit and housing. It rises as they weaken: an inverted yield curve, rising jobless claims, wider credit spreads or falling permits all push it up. The coincident activity bucket is excluded so the gauge leads rather than confirms.
Labor momentum 53
Leading indicators 47
Credit & financial conditions 54
Interest-sensitive (housing) 39
Leading composite z -0.18 · recession-risk thresholds are uncalibrated pending the backtest.
The five buckets — level and momentum
Real activity (coincident) 30%
45 → -0.09
Labor momentum 20%
53 → -0.01
Leading indicators 25%
47 → +0.34
Credit & financial conditions 10%
54 → -0.25
Interest-sensitive (housing) 15%
39 → +0.31
All 19 indicators — level z and momentum z
| Indicator | Bucket | Level z | Momentum z |
|---|---|---|---|
| Industrial production INDPRO | activity | +0.31 | +0.01 |
| Nonfarm payrolls PAYEMS | activity | -0.32 | +0.12 |
| Real personal income ex-transfers W875RX1 | activity | -1.77 | -0.63 |
| Real personal consumption PCEC96 | activity | -0.24 | -0.01 |
| Real mfg & trade sales CMRMTSPL | activity | -0.11 | +0.04 |
| Initial jobless claims (inverts) ICSA | labor | +0.32 | -0.17 |
| Continued claims (inverts) CCSA | labor | +0.33 | -0.11 |
| Avg weekly hours, manufacturing AWHMAN | labor | +0.33 | +0.01 |
| Temp-help services payrolls TEMPHELPS | labor | -0.07 | +0.24 |
| 10y–3m term spread (curve) T10Y3M | leading | +0.07 | +0.46 |
| Building permits PERMIT | leading | -0.44 | +0.30 |
| U. Michigan consumer sentiment UMCSENT | leading | -1.95 | -0.85 |
| Core capex new orders (ex-air) NEWORDER | leading | +1.29 | +1.46 |
| High-yield OAS (inverts) BAMLH0A0HYM2 | credit | +1.06 | +0.03 |
| Chicago Fed NFCI (inverts) NFCI | credit | +0.20 | -0.12 |
| 10y–2y term spread T10Y2Y | credit | -0.27 | -0.67 |
| Housing starts HOUST | housing | +0.04 | +0.13 |
| New single-family home sales HSN1F | housing | -1.02 | +0.12 |
| Months supply of new homes (inverts) MSACSR | housing | -1.73 | +0.68 |
How to read it
Each indicator is transformed (YoY or level), winsorised, and z-scored against its own ~12-year history, signed so a higher z always means stronger growth (jobless claims, credit spreads and months-of-supply are inverted; the yield curve enters as its term spread). Growth is the weighted composite of those z-scores; Direction is the same weights over each indicator's momentum; Recession risk is the negative of the leading-buckets composite, so it rises as the forward-looking data deteriorates. Sub-scores freeze between releases.
For information and discussion only — a reading of US macro data, not investment advice or a recession call. Recession-risk thresholds are uncalibrated pending the planned backtest. Cross-read with Structural Inflation and the Money Temperature regime.