— C+

MHP · Index 3 of 4 · AI Build-Out Family · monthly cadence · 11 tickers · 4 layers

Memory / HBM Pulse

HBM is the bottleneck. Every H100, H200, B200, and MI300X needs 4-12 stacks of high-bandwidth memory glued onto the logic die. Three companies make HBM at scale — SK Hynix, Samsung, Micron — and when their capacity sells out, the AI accelerator ceiling is set. MHP tracks the three layers that move first (test-equipment orders, advanced packaging, HBM-supplier momentum) plus the demand-pull layer that confirms the read.

Composite 81 / 100 Accelerating
Data month May 2026
Snapshot taken May 26, 2026
Universe 11 tickers across 4 layers · HBM3 / HBM3E volume coverage
Korea-exports macro signal pending (free public endpoints unreliable — MVP2 will add Korea Customs unipass API)
Lead-vs-Coincident Divergence

Bearish setup. HBM Big-3 (score 100) is running 20+ points hotter than the memory test/equipment layer (score 43). Test orders normally lead HBM revenue by 2-4 months — when Big-3 rallies without the lead layer confirming, the next leg may already be priced in.

Layer breakdown

Each layer captures one stage of the HBM value chain. Score is the percentile rank of average 21d return vs the layer's rolling 24-month history (first months use a deterministic heuristic). Weights reflect distance from the actual HBM revenue print — Big-3 closest, demand-pull furthest.

HBM Big-3 100 40% weight
21d avg: +47.0% tickers: 3

SK Hynix (HBM #1, ~50% share), Samsung (~35%), Micron (~15%). The three companies that actually make HBM. When they say "sold out 2027", that is the AI capex ceiling.

Memory Test / Equipment 43 25% weight
21d avg: -2.9% tickers: 3

Advantest (memory test market leader, ~50% share), Teradyne, Aehr Test Systems (HBM burn-in specialist). Test-equipment order books lead HBM revenue by 2-4 months — bullish divergence when this layer rises while Big-3 lags.

HBM-Adjacent Packaging 79 25% weight
21d avg: +11.8% tickers: 3

TSMC (CoWoS provider that mates HBM stacks to logic die), ASE Technology, Amkor. The packaging bottleneck — CoWoS capacity is one of the constraints on HBM-on-GPU output.

HBM Demand-Pull 100 10% weight
21d avg: +30.5% tickers: 2

NVIDIA, AMD. The actual buyers of HBM. Their order behaviour validates whether the supply-side signals are translating into accelerator volume.

Per-ticker breakdown 11 tickers · sorted by layer

Ticker Company Layer HBM capability 21d return
MU Micron Technology HBM Big-3 HBM3E, HBM4-sample +55.9%
000660.KS SK Hynix HBM Big-3 HBM3, HBM3E, HBM4-sample +54.8%
005930.KS Samsung Electronics HBM Big-3 HBM3, HBM3E, HBM4A-sample +30.3%
6857.T Advantest Memory Test / Equipment — +2.4%
AEHR Aehr Test Systems Memory Test / Equipment — -0.5%
TER Teradyne Memory Test / Equipment — -10.6%
3711.TW ASE Technology HBM-Adjacent Packaging — +33.5%
2330.TW TSMC HBM-Adjacent Packaging — +11.6%
AMKR Amkor Technology HBM-Adjacent Packaging — -9.8%
AMD AMD HBM Demand-Pull — +53.1%
NVDA NVIDIA HBM Demand-Pull — +7.9%

HBM4 readiness MVP2 trigger

MVP1 universe is the HBM3 / HBM3E generation — what is actually shipping in revenue in 2026. HBM4 is sample-only as of writing: SK Hynix shipped first HBM4 samples Q1 2026, Samsung's HBM4A variant follows in H2 2026, Micron's HBM4 samples land Q3 2026. Mass production targets late-2026 / early-2027.

MHP MVP2 will add an HBM4-transition sub-layer when SK Hynix or Samsung discloses an HBM4 revenue line for the first time. At that point the cross-generation pricing ratio (HBM3E / HBM4) becomes the leading derivative — directly analogous to CCST's H100 / B200 ratio, with the same regime-shift-detector behaviour. Every ticker in the MHP universe already carries an hbmCapability tag so MVP2 plug-in is mechanical, not a rebuild.

AI Build-Out Index Family 4 indices · supply-side AI hardware tracking

CCST · TAISP · MHP · STP — four independent indices, each with its own data source, equity basket, and equity-gap signal. Read them together: when one moves before the others, that's the rotation signal. (Agentic-demand-side tracking lives in the separate Agentic Demand Family.)

Methodology

MHP is the third of the Closelook AI Build-Out Index Family — a 4-index suite tracking the AI hardware supply chain (Compute Spot Tightness · Taiwan AI Supply Pulse · Memory/HBM Pulse · Semicap/Test Pulse). Each index has its own data sources, equity basket, and equity-gap signal. Closelook Agentic Usage Pulse (AUP), tracking demand-side AI adoption, is a separate standalone index in its own track.

Equity layer: 21d returns from the Closelook Lake API for each of 11 tickers across 4 layers. Per-layer score = percentile rank of average 21d return vs rolling 24-month history. Composite = layer-weighted blend (HBM Big-3 40% / Memory Test 25% / HBM-Adjacent Packaging 25% / HBM Demand-Pull 10%), with an optional 25% allocation to a Korea memory-exports YoY layer when the public macro-stats endpoints are reachable.

Korea-exports layer attempts OECD SDMX and FRED public endpoints in MVP1. Both are best-effort — when unreachable, composite re-normalises across the four equity layers without dropping. MVP2 will add Korea Customs Service unipass.customs.go.kr integration for the actual memory-segment-disaggregated first-20-days release that drops the 21st of every month.

The lead-vs-coincident divergence flag is the actionable signal: Memory Test layer leads HBM Big-3 by 2-4 months historically. When test runs 20+ points hotter than Big-3, the supply chain is preparing for delivery the Big-3 haven't booked yet (bullish). When Big-3 runs 20+ points hotter than test, the next leg may already be priced in (bearish).

Index reading is a diary entry on our process. Closelook publishes research, not investment advice.