Lab · Prototype · two new reads
Rates & Leadership
Two scoped reads — the bond term ladder and leadership relative strength — as of . Transparent only: prices vs moving averages, plain returns and ratios, distance from the high. Final placement and gating are still open.
Rates & the term ladder Gap A
| Treasuries | Trend | RSI | 1-month | YTD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1–3y Treasuries | ▲ above 200-day | 46.6 | +0.2% | +0.4% |
| 7–10y Treasuries | ▼ below 200-day | 50.4 | +1.7% | -0.2% |
| 20y+ Treasuries | ▲ above 200-day | 63.9 | +4.9% | +1.6% |
| Inflation-linked (TIPS) | ▲ above 200-day | 40.5 | +0.5% | +1.2% |
Duration bet: Long and short Treasuries roughly in step — no strong duration bet. (TLT:SHY, 3-month +0.0%.)
Phase 2: the actual 10y−2y curve (DGS10/DGS2) from the FRED-connected macro worker.
Leadership & the horizon split Gap B
| Index / group | 5-day | 1-month | 3-month | YTD | off high | 200-day |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Semis (equal-weight) | +6.5% | +18.7% | +92.1% | +89.8% | −2.1% | |
| Semis (cap-weight) | +8.3% | +21.3% | +67.1% | +76.8% | at high | |
| Nasdaq 100 | +3.3% | +5.6% | +25.0% | +20.9% | −0.7% | |
| Russell 2000 | +2.0% | +8.5% | +19.7% | +19.3% | at high | |
| Nvidia | +2.8% | -4.4% | +18.1% | +11.7% | −10.5% | |
| S&P 500 | +1.5% | +2.0% | +13.8% | +9.9% | −1.4% | |
| Dow (DJIA) | +1.5% | +4.6% | +12.5% | +7.4% | −0.9% | |
| Health Care | -3.0% | +1.4% | +2.3% | -3.5% | −6.4% |
Nvidia vs the Nasdaq 100 Nvidia is lagging the index it dominates (-5.5% · 3-month)
Semis (cap-weight) vs the Nasdaq 100 Semis are leading the Nasdaq (+33.6% · 3-month)
Equal-weight vs cap-weight semis (XSD : SMH) Equal-weight keeping pace — a broad semis rally (+15.0% · 3-month)
Phase 2: the concentration attribution (each leader's share of its index's gain), extending the ETF-dispersion tool.
Prototype · Prototype for the two scoped gap reads. Transparent only. Source: EODHD daily adjusted closes.