Lab · Macro
Rates X-Ray
The US Treasury curve, the spreads that name the regime, and what's driving the long end — as of . Updated daily from FRED. A description of the curve, not a forecast.
The Treasury curve
| Tenor | Yield | 1-day | 1-week | 1-month |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3-Month | 3.83% | −7 | −6 | −4 |
| 6-Month | 3.97% | −10 | −8 | −3 |
| 1-Year | 4.04% | −5 | −7 | +7 |
| 2-Year | 4.22% | −4 | −9 | +12 |
| 5-Year | 4.37% | +2 | −4 | +23 |
| 7-Year | 4.51% | +4 | −2 | +27 |
| 10-Year | 4.67% | +6 | 0 | +29 |
| 20-Year | 5.21% | +10 | +4 | +35 |
| 30-Year | 5.20% | +11 | +5 | +34 |
Changes in basis points · rising yields in red (a headwind for bonds & long-duration equities), falling in green.
What moved the long end: The 10-year rose 29 bps over the past month — +25 bps real yield, +3 bps breakeven. real-yield (growth / term-premium)-led.
Rates → long-duration equities Closelook
The 10-year is the discount-rate axis for long-duration equities. Holding cash flows and duration fixed, a representative SaaS book — priced as a two-stage DCF — moves this much on the rate axis alone:
A sensitivity, not a forecast — the rate axis only; AI-driven duration risk is the second leg. Model all three levers on the SaaS valuation tool; the thesis is in the second-leg-down pulse.
The world's long end Global · monthly
Major-economy 10-year government yields and their spread to the US — FRED OECD series, monthly (as of June 2026).
| Economy | 10Y yield | vs prior month | vs US 10Y |
|---|---|---|---|
| Germany | 2.97% | −8 | +170 bps |
| United Kingdom | 4.80% | −15 | -13 bps |
| Japan | 2.67% | +2 | +200 bps |
| Canada | 3.42% | −12 | +125 bps |
| France | 3.68% | −6 | +99 bps |
A positive spread = the US 10-year sits above that economy's. Daily foreign yields aren't on the free data stack, so this OECD panel is monthly — a structural read, not a tape.
The term ladder ETF proxies
| Treasuries | Trend | RSI | 1-month | YTD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1–3y Treasuries | ▲ above 200-day | 46.6 | +0.2% | +0.4% |
| 7–10y Treasuries | ▼ below 200-day | 50.4 | +1.7% | -0.2% |
| 20y+ Treasuries | ▲ above 200-day | 63.9 | +4.9% | +1.6% |
| Inflation-linked (TIPS) | ▲ above 200-day | 40.5 | +0.5% | +1.2% |
Duration bet: Long and short Treasuries roughly in step — no strong duration bet. (TLT:SHY, 3-month +0.0%.)
Leadership & the horizon split RS
| Index / group | 5-day | 1-month | 3-month | YTD | off high | 200-day |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Semis (equal-weight) | +6.5% | +18.7% | +92.1% | +89.8% | −2.1% | |
| Semis (cap-weight) | +8.3% | +21.3% | +67.1% | +76.8% | at high | |
| Nasdaq 100 | +3.3% | +5.6% | +25.0% | +20.9% | −0.7% | |
| Russell 2000 | +2.0% | +8.5% | +19.7% | +19.3% | at high | |
| Nvidia | +2.8% | -4.4% | +18.1% | +11.7% | −10.5% | |
| S&P 500 | +1.5% | +2.0% | +13.8% | +9.9% | −1.4% | |
| Dow (DJIA) | +1.5% | +4.6% | +12.5% | +7.4% | −0.9% | |
| Health Care | -3.0% | +1.4% | +2.3% | -3.5% | −6.4% |
Curve & spreads: FRED constant-maturity Treasuries, daily. ETF ladder + leadership: EODHD daily. Diary tool — not investment advice.