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Lab · Prototype · two new reads

Rates & Leadership

Two scoped reads — the bond term ladder and leadership relative strength — as of . Transparent only: prices vs moving averages, plain returns and ratios, distance from the high. Final placement and gating are still open.

Rates & the term ladder Gap A

TreasuriesTrendRSI1-monthYTD
1–3y Treasuries ▲ above 200-day 46.6 +0.2% +0.4%
7–10y Treasuries ▼ below 200-day 50.4 +1.7% -0.2%
20y+ Treasuries ▲ above 200-day 63.9 +4.9% +1.6%
Inflation-linked (TIPS) ▲ above 200-day 40.5 +0.5% +1.2%

Duration bet: Long and short Treasuries roughly in step — no strong duration bet. (TLT:SHY, 3-month +0.0%.)

Phase 2: the actual 10y−2y curve (DGS10/DGS2) from the FRED-connected macro worker.

Leadership & the horizon split Gap B

Index / group5-day1-month3-monthYTDoff high200-day
Semis (equal-weight) +6.5% +18.7% +92.1% +89.8% −2.1%
Semis (cap-weight) +8.3% +21.3% +67.1% +76.8% at high
Nasdaq 100 +3.3% +5.6% +25.0% +20.9% −0.7%
Russell 2000 +2.0% +8.5% +19.7% +19.3% at high
Nvidia +2.8% -4.4% +18.1% +11.7% −10.5%
S&P 500 +1.5% +2.0% +13.8% +9.9% −1.4%
Dow (DJIA) +1.5% +4.6% +12.5% +7.4% −0.9%
Health Care -3.0% +1.4% +2.3% -3.5% −6.4%
Nvidia vs the Nasdaq 100 Nvidia is lagging the index it dominates (-5.5% · 3-month)
Semis (cap-weight) vs the Nasdaq 100 Semis are leading the Nasdaq (+33.6% · 3-month)
Equal-weight vs cap-weight semis (XSD : SMH) Equal-weight keeping pace — a broad semis rally (+15.0% · 3-month)

Phase 2: the concentration attribution (each leader's share of its index's gain), extending the ETF-dispersion tool.

Prototype · Prototype for the two scoped gap reads. Transparent only. Source: EODHD daily adjusted closes.