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Shopify Inc (SHOP) — chart, structure and Closelooknet read

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The desk on SHOP

What this diary said about Shopify Inc, what it holds and what would change its view — in its own words, dated. Investment diary, not advice.

What we said

What we hold

BookPositionSinceResult
Global Tech 50 100 shares · average entry $34.72 — +309.7%
AI Cycle 2030 (wikifolio) ↗ 18 shares · average entry €113.86 — —

Model books as of 25 Sept 2026; wikifolio positions from the official wikifolio data, entries in euros. Results are unrealised, before any exit. A record of what the diary does, not a recommendation to do the same.

Our record on SHOP

Every scored call, pick and trade this diary has made on Shopify Inc, with the outcome where it is known.

Signals for this name

Every Closelooknet reading that exists for SHOP, from the same nightly bakes the boards use. Research diary readings, not advice.

Versus its index Agentic Winners 40 — the name, its sleeve and the index over day, week and month

Versus its index

The name against its Closelooknet index and its own sleeve — equal-weight, nightly closes.

Agentic Winners 40 · as of 2026-09-25

DayWeekMonth3 months
SHOP−2.0%+10.7%−5.3%+21.7%
Endpoints−0.8%+1.1%−7.5%—
Agentic Winners 40−0.7%−0.1%−5.7%—

Against the index: 10.8 pts ahead on the week, 0.4 pts ahead on the month; against its Endpoints sleeve 2.2 pts ahead on the month.

Returns from the index workers’ nightly closes; equal-weight sleeves. A relative reading from the research diary, not advice.

Mentioned on Closelooknet 9 pieces · newest: Morning 10, “Brent closes above $100 for the first time since July and the 10-year hits 4.86%: Wall Street falls a third day while Cloudflare +10%, Datadog +7% and Meta +7% catch the money the chip leaders gave back” (2026-09-10)

Mentioned on Closelooknet

Where SHOP appears in the diary — 9 pieces, newest first. Every link is our own writing.

Go deeper

Long reads

  • The Agentic Winners 25Dossier · $49 · 31 Mar 2026Shopify is the commerce operating system for the agent economy — its integration with Google's UCP positions it as the platform through which AI shopping agents will browse, compare, and purchase on behalf of consumers.
  • The SaaS Litmus Test: Is The March Bottom Real?Weekly Signal · 19 Apr 2026

Dailies

Weather around the name 3 macro readings: Money Temperature, Factor regime, Sovereign pressure

The weather around this name

Macro readings that apply by membership — the regime, the factor tape, the sector cell, the funding backdrop.

  • Money Temperature Composite 62/100 · S&P 500 fund at 67, bullish alignedEight instruments scored on position, momentum, volume, volatility and fragility — the regime every name trades inside. Temperature lab → 2026-09-25
  • Factor regime Momentum leading — risk appetite buildingMomentum against low volatility (SPMO / SPLV): above its 50-day trend, 99th percentile of the window, +8.4% over 20 sessions. Factor regime → 2026-09-25
  • Sovereign pressure Index 0.61 · up 0.29 over 21 sessionsG7 long-end yields, 10s30s and the slope — the funding weather for every balance sheet on this site. Sovereign pressure → 2026-09-25
How it trades on rate days beta 1.14 to TLT · on the worst bond days it fell more than the market

How it trades on rate days

How SHOP has moved when long-dated Treasury yields rise — measured against TLT, the 20+ year Treasury fund.

  • Beta to long bonds, 1 year 1.14 — moves strongly with bonds for every 1% move in TLT (20+ year Treasuries), Shopify Inc moved 1.14% on average · correlation 0.18 · higher than 91% of US names
  • Beta, last 3 months 1.77 more rate-sensitive lately than over the year
  • On the 10 worst bond days −1.74% on average against −0.74% for the S&P 500 the 10 sessions of the past year in which TLT fell most, i.e. long yields rose most
  • Latest of those days +1.98% TLT −1.29% that day 2026-09-24

Daily total returns from the adjusted price series; a TLT down day is a day long yields rose. Beta = the average move of the name for a 1% move in TLT. Past sensitivity, not a forecast. An investment diary, not a recommendation.

Who it is priced against Agentic Winners 40 · Endpoints · 8 names with week and year-to-date

Peer group

Agentic Winners 40 · Endpoints

  • APPApplovin Corp
    day
    −0.9%
    vs 50d
    −9.7%
    off high
    −58.1%
    score
    67

    flow: getting weaker

  • RDDTReddit, Inc.
    day
    +0.5%
    vs 50d
    −4.7%
    off high
    −46.0%
    score
    62

    flow: turning up

  • TOSTToast Inc
    day
    +1.0%
    vs 50d
    −8.6%
    off high
    −34.0%
    score
    61

    flow: getting stronger

  • MELIMercadoLibre Inc.
    day
    −2.5%
    vs 50d
    −6.3%
    off high
    −31.2%
    score
    57

    flow: turning up

  • SESea Ltd
    day
    −2.5%
    vs 50d
    −9.3%
    off high
    −49.5%
    score
    55

    flow: turning up

  • SPOTSpotify Technology SA
    day
    +0.2%
    vs 50d
    −0.7%
    off high
    −31.4%
    score
    55

    flow: turning up

  • NFLXNetflix Inc
    day
    +0.5%
    vs 50d
    −5.1%
    off high
    −37.8%
    score
    54

    flow: turning up

  • DUOLDuolingo Inc
    day
    +1.2%
    vs 50d
    +5.1%
    off high
    −58.4%
    score
    52

    flow: turning up

Compared against SHOP on the nightly bakes; the Peers tab ranks the cohort on the Closelooknet scores where it exists.

Company snapshot — Shopify Inc

SHOP in five paragraphs: what it makes and sells, where it sits in the Closelooknet stack, who it is priced against, why we track it, what we watch. Research diary, not advice.

What it does
Shopify supplies the software platform merchants use to run a store, covering inventory and order management, payments, shipping, marketing and analytics across web, mobile, physical and social channels. It also sells Shopify Payments for card processing, point-of-sale hardware, apps and themes through its own app store, and domain registration. The company is based in Ottawa, Canada.
Where it sits in the stack
Shopify carries no seat in Closelooknet's semiconductor-focused index; it belongs instead to the Endpoints sleeve of the Agentic Winners 40, the diary's index for firms exposed to AI agents transacting directly with consumers and merchants.
Who it is priced against
Its peer group in the diary is the Endpoints sleeve of the Agentic Winners 40, grouped with Applovin, Reddit, Toast, MercadoLibre, Sea, Spotify, Netflix and Duolingo as consumer-facing platforms an agent economy could route through; the market also names Amazon as a comparison.
Why Closelooknet tracks it
Shopify sits in the Nasdaq-100 and in the Agentic Winners 40. It carries a Closelooknet score, strongest on quality and weakest on valuation. The diary has covered it in a dossier on the Agentic Winners 25, describing its integration with Google's UCP as positioning it for AI shopping agents to buy through, and it has appeared in the Morning 10 and Midday 10 alongside moves in the software group.
What the diary watches
The diary watches whether the UCP integration turns into measurable agent-driven order volume, and whether the valuation weakness narrows as quality holds.

Shopify Inc (SHOP) trades on US exchanges in CA, classified under Technology. Constituent of Agentic Winners 40.

The Closelooknet company score reads 55/100 composite (momentum 62, quality 55, valuation 15) across 7 modules — the full breakdown, chart structure and analog history load live above.

Written from the company’s public profile and Closelooknet’s own readings, 2026-09-17. Descriptive, refreshed with the registry; corrections welcome via the imprint. closelook.net is an investment research diary — market structure, index membership and scores are our own readings, not investment advice. Related: index compare · sector dispersion · scanner.

The Street on this name 1 analyst action on the wire · latest: initiation by Bernstein, 2026-09-10

The Street on this name

Analyst actions and the latest print for SHOP from the Closelooknet wires — third-party opinions on the record, not our readings.

  • Initiation Bernstein — at Outperform · target 160 Initiated to Outperform · Target set to $160 (+26.4% to spot) 2026-09-10

1 action on the analyst wire since 2026-08-13: 1 initiation. Analyst wire → · Earnings wire →

Dividends and capital return no distribution in twelve months

Dividends and capital return

What SHOP pays out and buys back — distributions read from the price series, money terms from the filings.

  • Distributions No cash distribution recorded in the price series over the last three years
  • Share count +0.3% in FY2025 449 m USD of stock-based compensation in the year

Per-share amounts are derived from the adjusted price series in the listing currency, so dates sit within days of the ex-date; filing figures come from the fundamentals feed for the last reported fiscal year. An investment diary, not a recommendation.

FAQ · from the current data · as of 2026-09-26

Quick answers

What is Shopify Inc (SHOP)?

Shopify Inc trades as SHOP on the US exchange (CA) and is classified under Technology in the Closelooknet research universe, as of the registry build of 2026-09-26.

Is SHOP in a Closelooknet index?

Yes — Shopify Inc is a constituent of Agentic Winners 40, as of 2026-09-26.

What is Shopify Inc's Closelooknet composite score?

55 out of 100, with momentum 62, quality 55 and valuation 15 sub-scores, as of 2026-09-26. Scores are Closelooknet's own research readings, not ratings or investment advice.

What is Shopify Inc's earnings print record?

Across the 10 prints Closelooknet covers, Shopify Inc beat EPS estimates 8 times and revenue estimates 9 times; the three-day reactions split 4 up, 2 flat and 4 down (moves beyond ±3%), as of the 2026-08-04 card. The full print-record card carries the per-print history.

Where does SHOP trade against its moving averages?

Reclaimed its 50-day: Closed back above its 50-day line 4 sessions ago, with the 200-day still rising beneath it. As of 2026-09-24 — a technical state from the nightly Closelooknet bake, not advice. The Technical tab carries the full row.

How is SHOP doing against its Closelooknet index?

Over the past month Shopify Inc is −5.3% against −5.7% for the Agentic Winners 40 — 0.4 points ahead of its index, as of 2026-09-25. Its Endpoints sleeve is −7.5% over the same month. The “Versus its index” table on this page carries the day, the week and the month for the name, its sleeve and the index.

How does Shopify Inc trade when bond yields rise?

Over the past year Shopify Inc had a beta of 1.14 to TLT, the long-dated Treasury fund — it moves strongly with bonds, higher than 91% of US names. On the 10 sessions in which long bonds fell most it moved −1.74% on average, against −0.74% for the S&P 500. The "How it trades on rate days" block on this page carries the lines.

Where has Closelooknet written about Shopify Inc?

Shopify Inc appears in 9 Closelooknet pieces, most recently Morning 10: Brent closes above $100 for the first time since July and the 10-year hits 4.86%: Wall Street falls a third day while Cloudflare +10%, Datadog +7% and Meta +7% catch the money the chip leaders gave back (2026-09-10); Midday 10: Chips lead the market down as oil tops $105 and the 10-year hits 4.92%: Micron −4%, Intel −4%, Nvidia −2.5% — while software posts its first up day in six and Apple gains 3% (2026-09-10); Morning 10: Oil knocks on $100 and Wall Street sells everything but the AI pipe: Intel +9%, Lumentum +11%, Dow −1.2% — Seoul buys the dip and the Kospi is back above 7,000 (2026-09-09). What Closelooknet said most recently: The software ETF itself still fell 0.8%: Shopify −5.5%, ServiceNow −2.3%, Salesforce −2.0%, CoreWeave −4.9%, IonQ −5.8%. (Morning 10, 2026-09-10). The "Mentioned on Closelooknet" block on this page lists the long reads, the reference entries and the dailies that name it.

Does Closelooknet hold Shopify Inc?

Yes — Global Tech 50: 100 shares · average entry $34.72, +309.7% unrealised; AI Cycle 2030 (wikifolio): 18 shares · average entry €113.86. A record of what the diary does, not a recommendation to do the same.

What does Shopify Inc do?

Shopify supplies the software platform merchants use to run a store, covering inventory and order management, payments, shipping, marketing and analytics across web, mobile, physical and social channels. It also sells Shopify Payments for card processing, point-of-sale hardware, apps and themes through its own app store, and domain registration. The company is based in Ottawa, Canada. Its peer group in the diary is the Endpoints sleeve of the Agentic Winners 40, grouped with Applovin, Reddit, Toast, MercadoLibre, Sea, Spotify, Netflix and Duolingo as consumer-facing platforms an agent economy could route through; the market also names Amazon as a comparison.

Where does Shopify Inc sit in the AI build-out?

Shopify carries no seat in Closelooknet's semiconductor-focused index; it belongs instead to the Endpoints sleeve of the Agentic Winners 40, the diary's index for firms exposed to AI agents transacting directly with consumers and merchants. Shopify sits in the Nasdaq-100 and in the Agentic Winners 40. It carries a Closelooknet score, strongest on quality and weakest on valuation. The diary has covered it in a dossier on the Agentic Winners 25, describing its integration with Google's UCP as positioning it for AI shopping agents to buy through, and it has appeared in the Morning 10 and Midday 10 alongside moves in the software group.

Does Shopify Inc pay a dividend?

No cash distribution shows in Shopify Inc’s price series over the last three years. The share count rose 0.3% over the fiscal year. The "Dividends and capital return" block on this page carries the lines.

What has Wall Street done on Shopify Inc recently?

The most recent analyst action on Shopify Inc on the Closelooknet wire is a initiation by Bernstein on 2026-09-10 (at Outperform · target 160). 1 action on the analyst wire since 2026-08-13: 1 initiation. Analyst actions are third-party opinions recorded by the wire, not Closelooknet readings. The “The Street on this name” block on this page lists the moves; the full feeds are the analyst wire and the earnings wire.

What does this page show?

A live price chart with SMA overlays and drawing tools for SHOP, performance metrics, index-membership context and the Closelooknet structure read — an investment research diary view, not investment advice.

Related in the Closelooknet universe

same Closelooknet index seat first, then Software - Application. Scored names rank on their Closelooknet score; names without one rank on trend state — above or below their 50- and 200-day averages — never on a score they do not carry.