iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) — chart, structure and Closelook read

Long reads

• Gold and Bitcoin — The Hedges Bear No InterestWeekly Signal · 2 Aug 2026Long rates answered the way they have all summer: the long bond fell again this week (TLT −1.2%), and the pattern from the rate-shock fortnight — Treasuries declining with equities — keeps resurfacing.
• Earnings Season — The Bar Meets Its First PrintsWeekly Signal · 12 Jul 2026
• Software vs Semis — The Tape Split in TwoWeekly Signal · 5 Jul 2026Sector (SPDR) Week Financials (XLF) +3.8% Communications (XLC) +3.2% Discretionary (XLY) +2.4% Health Care (XLV) +2.1% Industrials (XLI) +1.5% Materials (XLB) +0.8% Staples (XLP) +0.3% Technology (XLK) −0.3% Utilities (XLU) −1.0% Energy…
• TLT: The Crowded TradeWeekly Signal · 25 May 2026With the rate-sensitive cohort refusing to break, the contrarian case is gaining credibility — but it isn’t validated until TLT defends 83 on a monthly close.
• Treasuries — Stock Market at a CrossroadsWeekly Signal · 17 May 2026Composite 34 / 100 TLT close $83.66 Support since 2003 $83.45 10Y yield 4.49% Regime reads bearish; setup reads contrarian-bullish.
• Bitcoin Weekly Signal — Two-Step Test + BTC/Gold DecouplingWeekly Signal · 27 Apr 2026(10) Next Edition The regular nine-dimensional Weekly Signal returns Sunday, May 3, 2026 — covering BTC, NDX, SMH, Gold, TLT, FTSE Global ex-US across the full Macro / Liquidity / Trend / Participation / Breadth / Volatility / Sentiment /…
• The SaaS Litmus Test: Is The March Bottom Real?Weekly Signal · 19 Apr 2026(11) Next Edition The regular nine-dimensional Weekly Signal scorecard returns next Sunday, April 26, 2026 — covering BTC, NDX, SMH, Gold, TLT, FTSE Global ex-US across the full Macro / Liquidity / Trend / Participation / Breadth /…
• Macro Regime — Money TemperatureReport · 6 Apr 2026TLT lost more than 30% in the same year the S&P 500 fell more than 18%.

101 and glossary

• Bollinger Coiling: When Volatility Compresses Before Expanding101Coils in the macro basket — particularly in SPY, QQQ, and TLT — are disproportionately informative.
• Cascade Tracker: The 5-Domino Model of Regime Breakdown101If pairs break out-of-order (say, TLT-SPY before QQQ-SPY), it signals something unusual about the stress source — rate-driven rather than risk-appetite-driven, for example.
• Cointegration: When the Rules of the Game Change101
• Market RegimeGlossaryThe system is applied weekly across six assets: BTC, NDX, SMH, Gold, TLT, and FTSE Global ex-US.
• Market Regime Scoring: Green, Yellow, Red — and What It Means101Shift to Gold, TLT, and defensive positioning.
• Money Temperature: Measuring Regime Intensity, Not Predicting Direction101The practical value comes from cross-reading: when SPY reads 72 and TLT reads 25, that configuration has a name, a history, and actionable implications.
• Stack Flip: When Price Crosses the 200-Day Moving Average101Ignoring flips in major macro instruments (SPY, QQQ, TLT, GLD) means missing the moments when regimes visibly change.
• Weekly Signal Composite: How Closelook Reads Market Regime101The framework covers six assets: BTC, NDX, SMH, Gold, TLT, and FTSE Global ex-US.

Dailies

• Fed day — relief before the decision: 10-year 4.96%, Brent under $107.63, chips reclaim $505, Nasdaq-100 above $708.69Midday 10 · 16 Sept 2026ETF board, pre-Fed relief: SPY +0.4% to $760.70 above $757.83, QQQ +0.9% to $710.89 above $708.69, IWM +0.4%, DIA flat, equal-weight +0.1%; SOXX +2.0% to $508.60 back above $505, SMH +1.7%, tech +1.1%, software flat at $105.41; TLT +0.5%…
• Rates — Fed day at a 5% 10-year: the hike is priced, the cycle is not; Yardeni cuts the S&P target to 7,900Morning 10 · 16 Sept 2026
• Rates — What a 5% 10-Year Costs: Yardeni’s Multiple, the Fed’s Dots and the AI TradeDaily Pulse · 16 Sept 2026
• AI trade — sellers of compute sold, buyers bought: chips −5.6%, software +5%, SoftBank +7% in TokyoMorning 10 · 15 Sept 2026
• Rates — the 10-year hits 5.01%: Dow −0.9%, Russell −1.2%, the AI sort pauses, Oracle and Adobe hold their linesMidday 10 · 15 Sept 2026ETF board: a rates day — SPY −0.5% to $757.13 under Thursday’s $757.83, QQQ −0.5% to $705.37 above 704, DIA −0.9%, IWM −1.2%, equal-weight −0.4%; SOXX +0.3% to $498.65 under $505, SMH +0.1%, tech flat, software flat at $106.62; TLT −0.2%…
• Real Rates — What TIPS and the Credit Tape Say About the AI Build-Out Before the FedDaily Pulse · 15 Sept 2026The nominal funds fell with them: the 20-year-plus Treasury fund (TLT) $80.93, down 3.0% from its late-August high, the 7-to-10-year fund $90.93.
• AI trade — the labs ask for a slowdown: Kospi −3.3%, SoftBank −11%, Nasdaq futures −1.2%, oil back above $106Morning 10 · 14 Sept 2026
• AI trade — the pacing call splits tech: chips −5%, software +4.5%, security +12–15%, 10-year hits 5%Midday 10 · 14 Sept 2026ETF board: index flat, AI trade split — SPY −0.4%, QQQ −0.7% back above 704, DIA flat, IWM −0.2%, equal-weight flat; SOXX −5.2% to $499.81 through $517.43 and $505, SMH −4.4%, tech −1.4%; software +4.5% to $106.07; energy −0.2% with oil…