iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) — Technical state

Long reads

• Calendar — The Funds’ New Year and the Midterms: a Fresh Start?Weekly Signal · 1 Nov 2026The week's lowest trade in TLT was 80.73 — both gaps stayed open.
• Long Bond — A Second Gap Higher, and Both Still OpenWeekly Signal · 25 Oct 20261 · The signal — the long bond: a second gap higher The long Treasury fund TLT gapped higher on Thursday, 22 October, for the second time in six sessions.
• Financials — The Early Warning Has Turned, for NowWeekly Signal · 11 Oct 2026
• Non-Tech Growth — Two Years of Dead Capital, and Now It Trades Like a BondWeekly Signal · 4 Oct 20262 · The numbers: correlation up, cointegration only in the box We measured how the non-tech Nasdaq moves against the 7–10-year Treasury fund (IEF), the long-bond fund (TLT) and the 10-year yield itself, over four windows.
• Gold and Bitcoin — The Hedges Bear No InterestWeekly Signal · 2 Aug 2026Long rates answered the way they have all summer: the long bond fell again this week (TLT −1.2%), and the pattern from the rate-shock fortnight — Treasuries declining with equities — keeps resurfacing.
• Earnings Season — The Bar Meets Its First PrintsWeekly Signal · 12 Jul 2026
• Software vs Semis — The Tape Split in TwoWeekly Signal · 5 Jul 2026Sector (SPDR) Week Financials (XLF) +3.8% Communications (XLC) +3.2% Discretionary (XLY) +2.4% Health Care (XLV) +2.1% Industrials (XLI) +1.5% Materials (XLB) +0.8% Staples (XLP) +0.3% Technology (XLK) −0.3% Utilities (XLU) −1.0% Energy…
• TLT: The Crowded TradeWeekly Signal · 25 May 2026With the rate-sensitive cohort refusing to break, the contrarian case is gaining credibility — but it isn’t validated until TLT defends 83 on a monthly close.

101 and glossary

• Bollinger Coiling: When Volatility Compresses Before Expanding101Coils in the macro basket — particularly in SPY, QQQ, and TLT — are disproportionately informative.
• Cascade Tracker: The 5-Domino Model of Regime Breakdown101If pairs break out-of-order (say, TLT-SPY before QQQ-SPY), it signals something unusual about the stress source — rate-driven rather than risk-appetite-driven, for example.
• Cointegration: When the Rules of the Game Change101
• Market RegimeGlossaryThe system is applied weekly across six assets: BTC, NDX, SMH, Gold, TLT, and FTSE Global ex-US.
• Market Regime Scoring: Green, Yellow, Red — and What It Means101Shift to Gold, TLT, and defensive positioning.
• Money Temperature: Measuring Regime Intensity, Not Predicting Direction101The practical value comes from cross-reading: when SPY reads 72 and TLT reads 25, that configuration has a name, a history, and actionable implications.
• Stack Flip: When Price Crosses the 200-Day Moving Average101Ignoring flips in major macro instruments (SPY, QQQ, TLT, GLD) means missing the moments when regimes visibly change.
• Weekly Signal Composite: How Closelooknet Reads Market Regime101The framework covers six assets: BTC, NDX, SMH, Gold, TLT, and FTSE Global ex-US.

Dailies

• AI Trade — Kospi Swings 7% on AMD and the Midterms, Closes Green; Nasdaq Futures RecoverMorning 10 · 4 Nov 2026Bonds, Gold and Bitcoin — yields fall overnight, gold back above 4,000; TLT under 81.50
• Midterms — Dow Jumps 2.3% and Apple Hits a Record; Data-Center Power Stocks Sink Up to 15%Midday 10 · 4 Nov 2026The 10-year Treasury yield eases to about 4.92% from 4.95%, and TLT rises 0.35% to 81.40, just under the 81.50 line we have watched since Friday.
• AI Trade — Chips Bounce 3% Before AMD; Apple, Palantir and Shopify Slip After Their ReportsMidday 10 · 3 Nov 2026Bonds took it as a reason for higher rates: the 10-year Treasury yield is about 4.96%, from 4.89% on Monday, and TLT falls 0.85% to 81.04, under the 81.50 line we have watched since Friday.
• Asia's Chip Markets — Kospi and Taiwan fall 3.6%, Bitcoin slips under 77,000, Nasdaq futures dipMorning 10 · 3 Nov 2026Oil, Dollar and Bonds — oil −7.1% on Iran hopes; TLT holds above 81.50
• Oil — Brent −6.5% on Iran Talks Lifts Stocks; Amazon +5%, Oracle −6% on a $20 Billion RaiseMidday 10 · 2 Nov 2026The 10-year Treasury yield is about 4.91%, from 4.93% on Friday, and TLT holds 81.75, above 81.50.
• Overnight — Markets steady after Friday's chip rout: Nasdaq futures +0.8%, Kospi +2.2%, Bitcoin near 78,000Morning 10 · 2 Nov 2026Dollar, Yen and Bonds — no flight to safety; TLT held above 81.50 on Friday
• Derivatives — Puts Closed Before Friday's FallDaily Pulse · 31 Oct 2026Health care (XLV) gained 3.1 percent and the long-bond fund TLT 0.6 percent to 81.84.
• AI Trade — Japan, Korea, Taiwan fall, India rises; Bitcoin under 80,000, gold under 4,000, TLT above 81.50Morning 10 · 30 Oct 2026Bonds were bought: the long-Treasury fund TLT traded back above 81.50 after hours and the 10-year yield fell to about 4.91%.