iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) — Technical state

Long reads

• Financials — The Early Warning Has Turned, for NowWeekly Signal · 11 Oct 2026
• Non-Tech Growth — Two Years of Dead Capital, and Now It Trades Like a BondWeekly Signal · 4 Oct 20262 · The numbers: correlation up, cointegration only in the box We measured how the non-tech Nasdaq moves against the 7–10-year Treasury fund (IEF), the long-bond fund (TLT) and the 10-year yield itself, over four windows.
• Gold and Bitcoin — The Hedges Bear No InterestWeekly Signal · 2 Aug 2026Long rates answered the way they have all summer: the long bond fell again this week (TLT −1.2%), and the pattern from the rate-shock fortnight — Treasuries declining with equities — keeps resurfacing.
• Earnings Season — The Bar Meets Its First PrintsWeekly Signal · 12 Jul 2026
• Software vs Semis — The Tape Split in TwoWeekly Signal · 5 Jul 2026Sector (SPDR) Week Financials (XLF) +3.8% Communications (XLC) +3.2% Discretionary (XLY) +2.4% Health Care (XLV) +2.1% Industrials (XLI) +1.5% Materials (XLB) +0.8% Staples (XLP) +0.3% Technology (XLK) −0.3% Utilities (XLU) −1.0% Energy…
• TLT: The Crowded TradeWeekly Signal · 25 May 2026With the rate-sensitive cohort refusing to break, the contrarian case is gaining credibility — but it isn’t validated until TLT defends 83 on a monthly close.
• Treasuries — Stock Market at a CrossroadsWeekly Signal · 17 May 2026Composite 34 / 100 TLT close $83.66 Support since 2003 $83.45 10Y yield 4.49% Regime reads bearish; setup reads contrarian-bullish.
• Bitcoin Weekly Signal — Two-Step Test + BTC/Gold DecouplingWeekly Signal · 27 Apr 2026(10) Next Edition The regular nine-dimensional Weekly Signal returns Sunday, May 3, 2026 — covering BTC, NDX, SMH, Gold, TLT, FTSE Global ex-US across the full Macro / Liquidity / Trend / Participation / Breadth / Volatility / Sentiment /…

101 and glossary

• Bollinger Coiling: When Volatility Compresses Before Expanding101Coils in the macro basket — particularly in SPY, QQQ, and TLT — are disproportionately informative.
• Cascade Tracker: The 5-Domino Model of Regime Breakdown101If pairs break out-of-order (say, TLT-SPY before QQQ-SPY), it signals something unusual about the stress source — rate-driven rather than risk-appetite-driven, for example.
• Cointegration: When the Rules of the Game Change101
• Market RegimeGlossaryThe system is applied weekly across six assets: BTC, NDX, SMH, Gold, TLT, and FTSE Global ex-US.
• Market Regime Scoring: Green, Yellow, Red — and What It Means101Shift to Gold, TLT, and defensive positioning.
• Money Temperature: Measuring Regime Intensity, Not Predicting Direction101The practical value comes from cross-reading: when SPY reads 72 and TLT reads 25, that configuration has a name, a history, and actionable implications.
• Stack Flip: When Price Crosses the 200-Day Moving Average101Ignoring flips in major macro instruments (SPY, QQQ, TLT, GLD) means missing the moments when regimes visibly change.
• Weekly Signal Composite: How Closelooknet Reads Market Regime101The framework covers six assets: BTC, NDX, SMH, Gold, TLT, and FTSE Global ex-US.

Dailies

• AI Trade — Kospi −8.5%, Nikkei −4.7% after hot US inflation; TSMC beats, Nasdaq-100 on supportMorning 10 · 15 Oct 2026Bonds held up: the 10-year yield ended at 5.19%, a touch lower on the day, and the long-bond fund TLT rose 0.7% to 78.89.
• AI Trade — TSMC is ‘prudent’ on 2027: chip fund −2.0%, Dell −7.7%; software bought, Dow +0.9%Midday 10 · 15 Oct 2026The bond market reads the weak core spending over the hot prices: the long-bond fund TLT +1.5% to $80.04, homebuilders ITB +3.7%.
• ASML — record €11.7 billion quarter and sold out into 2028; inflation at 12:30 UTCMorning 10 · 14 Oct 2026Bonds go in firm: the 10-year yield ended Tuesday at 5.22% and the 30-year at 5.56%, and the long-bond fund TLT rose 0.4% to 78.37.
• Chips — SOXX −3.7%, now 20% below its June high; software −2.4% as hot inflation and BlackRock weighMidday 10 · 14 Oct 2026
• Korea — Kospi −3.5% on its first day back as chipmakers catch up; SpaceX deal sinks T-Mobile 13%Morning 10 · 12 Oct 2026The long-bond fund TLT rose 0.1% to 77.98, +0.7% on the week.
• AI Capex — chip index −3.4% after OpenAI's revenue comes in at $50 billion, not $70 billion; software risesMorning 10 · 9 Oct 2026Bonds rally — 10-year yield 5.23%, long-bond fund TLT +0.9%; gold +0.7%
• 60/40 — Not Dead, the Bond Part Needs a RegimeDaily Pulse · 8 Oct 2026The same zero-coupon fund lost 54.9% between January 2022 and October 2023; long Treasuries (TLT) lost 40.8%.
• Fed — minutes point to another rate hike by year-end; Samsung earns a record $80 billion in one quarterMorning 10 · 8 Oct 2026The long-bond fund TLT slipped 0.2% to 77.14.