iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) — Technical state

Long reads

• Gold and Bitcoin — The Hedges Bear No InterestWeekly Signal · 2 Aug 2026Long rates answered the way they have all summer: the long bond fell again this week (TLT −1.2%), and the pattern from the rate-shock fortnight — Treasuries declining with equities — keeps resurfacing.
• Earnings Season — The Bar Meets Its First PrintsWeekly Signal · 12 Jul 2026
• Software vs Semis — The Tape Split in TwoWeekly Signal · 5 Jul 2026Sector (SPDR) Week Financials (XLF) +3.8% Communications (XLC) +3.2% Discretionary (XLY) +2.4% Health Care (XLV) +2.1% Industrials (XLI) +1.5% Materials (XLB) +0.8% Staples (XLP) +0.3% Technology (XLK) −0.3% Utilities (XLU) −1.0% Energy…
• TLT: The Crowded TradeWeekly Signal · 25 May 2026With the rate-sensitive cohort refusing to break, the contrarian case is gaining credibility — but it isn’t validated until TLT defends 83 on a monthly close.
• Treasuries — Stock Market at a CrossroadsWeekly Signal · 17 May 2026Composite 34 / 100 TLT close $83.66 Support since 2003 $83.45 10Y yield 4.49% Regime reads bearish; setup reads contrarian-bullish.
• Bitcoin Weekly Signal — Two-Step Test + BTC/Gold DecouplingWeekly Signal · 27 Apr 2026(10) Next Edition The regular nine-dimensional Weekly Signal returns Sunday, May 3, 2026 — covering BTC, NDX, SMH, Gold, TLT, FTSE Global ex-US across the full Macro / Liquidity / Trend / Participation / Breadth / Volatility / Sentiment /…
• The SaaS Litmus Test: Is The March Bottom Real?Weekly Signal · 19 Apr 2026(11) Next Edition The regular nine-dimensional Weekly Signal scorecard returns next Sunday, April 26, 2026 — covering BTC, NDX, SMH, Gold, TLT, FTSE Global ex-US across the full Macro / Liquidity / Trend / Participation / Breadth /…
• Macro Regime — Money TemperatureReport · 6 Apr 2026TLT lost more than 30% in the same year the S&P 500 fell more than 18%.

101 and glossary

• Bollinger Coiling: When Volatility Compresses Before Expanding101Coils in the macro basket — particularly in SPY, QQQ, and TLT — are disproportionately informative.
• Cascade Tracker: The 5-Domino Model of Regime Breakdown101If pairs break out-of-order (say, TLT-SPY before QQQ-SPY), it signals something unusual about the stress source — rate-driven rather than risk-appetite-driven, for example.
• Cointegration: When the Rules of the Game Change101
• Market RegimeGlossaryThe system is applied weekly across six assets: BTC, NDX, SMH, Gold, TLT, and FTSE Global ex-US.
• Market Regime Scoring: Green, Yellow, Red — and What It Means101Shift to Gold, TLT, and defensive positioning.
• Money Temperature: Measuring Regime Intensity, Not Predicting Direction101The practical value comes from cross-reading: when SPY reads 72 and TLT reads 25, that configuration has a name, a history, and actionable implications.
• Stack Flip: When Price Crosses the 200-Day Moving Average101Ignoring flips in major macro instruments (SPY, QQQ, TLT, GLD) means missing the moments when regimes visibly change.
• Weekly Signal Composite: How Closelooknet Reads Market Regime101The framework covers six assets: BTC, NDX, SMH, Gold, TLT, and FTSE Global ex-US.

Dailies

• Magnificent Seven — The Megacaps Are Rising With the 10-Year YieldDaily Pulse · 25 Sept 2026Fund or stock September to date Three months MAGS (the seven) +5.5% +15.7% Meta +36.0% +39.5% Apple +6.0% +14.7% Tesla +2.7% +0.6% Nvidia +1.8% +13.0% Alphabet +1.0% −0.8% Microsoft −1.8% +36.5% Amazon −4.0% +6.4% S&P 500 (SPY) +0.3%…
• Megacaps — Microsoft jumps 3.6%, Meta gives back 3.7%; oil sinks 4% on Iran-deal talk, the 30-year at 5.49%Midday 10 · 25 Sept 2026Thirty-year 5.494% (Thursday 5.461%), ten-year 5.167% (5.162%), five-year 4.993% (5.025%); the long-bond fund TLT $79.24 (-0.23%)
• Rates — the 30-year hits its highest since 2004; Oracle and Arm sold, Meta and Intel bought, Nasdaq ends flatMorning 10 · 25 Sept 2026The 30-year touched 5.501%, the highest since June 2004, and closed at 5.461%; the 10-year touched 5.223%, the highest since June 2007, and closed at 5.162%; the 5-year closed above 5% at 5.025%; TLT -1.29%
• AI Credit — Oracle invokes force majeure on a New Mexico data center; the 30-year hits 5.45%Midday 10 · 24 Sept 2026Ten-year 5.154% (Wednesday 5.114%), thirty-year 5.45% (5.401%), five-year 5.03%; the long-bond fund TLT $79.76 (-0.87%); jobless claims 197,000 against 201,000 expected
• Rates — the 10-year closes at 5.11% and the 5-year hits 5%; Tokyo reopens higher, chip-equipment makers leadMorning 10 · 24 Sept 2026The ten-year closed at 5.114%, up nearly 15 basis points; the five-year touched 5% for the first time since 2007 and closed at 4.997%; the thirty-year 5.40%; the long-bond fund TLT -1.58%
• Rates — The 5-Year Hits 5%: Growth Story or Debt Story?Daily Pulse · 24 Sept 2026
• Nasdaq - a second record close as memory jumps 5-7% and banks, card networks and software are soldMorning 10 · 23 Sept 2026
• Yields — the 10-year is back above 5% on a hot PMI and a hawkish Fed; chips fall, software is boughtMidday 10 · 23 Sept 2026Ten-year 5.064%, up nearly 10bp from Tuesday's 4.968% close, TLT -1.29%: flash composite PMI 58.4 (August 56.0), services 58.7 against 56.0 expected; Governor Barr says further rate increases are likely needed and the Fed was 'out of…