Weekly Signal · · 8 min read
In this edition
One signal to define the week and shape the month. Three minutes, six questions. Every Sunday at 21:00 CET — scored the next.
11 October 2026 · stock and bond closes through Fri Oct 9.
0 · Last week, scored
Verdict: the floor held and non-tech growth rose 2.4%; the 10-year broke its line on Monday and gave it back by Thursday.
Last Sunday's signal was non-tech growth: two years of dead capital, now trading like a bond. The Nasdaq 100 without tech held its 95.56 low, closed back above the 96.2 shelf and finished at 98.15 — still under its 50-day. The 10-year closed at 5.31% on Monday, above the 5.29% line, then fell back to 5.22% on Thursday; the bond funds made one more new low on Monday and ended the week a little higher. In a week the bond market stopped falling, the bond-like half of the Nasdaq rose with it — exactly the link the signal described.
Table as text
| Level set last Sunday | Line | This week | Scored |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nasdaq 100 ex-tech (QQXT) | 95.56 / 96.2 / 100.45 | 98.15, +2.35% | floor held, back above the shelf, 50-day not reached |
| 7–10y Treasuries (IEF) | 89.05 low / 92.03 | 88.92 Monday, 89.40 Friday | one more low, then up |
| 20y+ Treasuries (TLT) | 81.20 / 74 | 77.11 Monday, 77.98 Friday | neither |
| US 10-year yield | 5.29% | 5.31% Monday, 5.22% Thursday | broken, then given back |
| Nasdaq 100 tech (QTEC) | record 336.34 / 50-day 314.43 | 331.55, −1.42% | off the record, above the 50-day |
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