Calendar — The Funds’ New Year and the Midterms: a Fresh Start?

One signal to define the week and shape the month. Three minutes, six questions. Every Sunday at 21:00 CET — scored the next.

1 November 2026 · stock and bond closes through Fri Oct 30.

0 · Last week, scored

Verdict: both gaps held, the ten-year closed the week under 5.0%, and the long bond rose against a Fed that sounded hawkish.

Last Sunday's signal was the long bond: two gaps higher off the October low, both still open, with a trade under 80.47 named as the first sign of trouble. The week's lowest trade in TLT was 80.73 — both gaps stayed open. The fund closed at 81.84, up 0.6%, a second week above its 50-day average (80.50). The ten-year yield closed the week at 4.93%, the first weekly close under 5.0% since the 5.31% of 5 October. The test was the Fed: it held its range at 3.75–4.00% in a 10–2 vote, two officials preferred a hike, and the statement said the economy is "expanding at a strong pace" and inflation "remains elevated". The bond market did not take the Fed's side — TLT rose on the week anyway. The 200-day average near 84.6 was not reached.

Table as text

Level set last Sunday	Line	This week	Scored
Long Treasury fund (TLT), second gap	80.47	lowest trade 80.73; Friday 81.84, +0.6%	held — both gaps open
TLT, first gap	79.01	not approached	held
TLT, 200-day average	about 84.6	81.84	not reached
US 10-year yield	5.0% / 5.31%	4.93% Friday	under 5.0% on the week
Chip stocks, equal weight (XSD)	449.41	452.10 Friday, lowest close of the week	held, by 2.69
Chip stocks, 30 largest (SOXX)	465.00	471.51 Friday	held
Nasdaq 100 fund (QQQ)	704.54	725.61 Wednesday, 690.49 Friday	reclaimed, then lost on Friday

Closelooknet data lake and sovereign board · Friday closes through Oct 30 · the Fed statement of 28 October · a level is “taken” on a closing basis; a gap is “filled” on a trade.