State Street® SPDR® S&P 500® ETF Trust (SPY) — chart, structure and Closelook read

Long reads

• Earnings — Post-Earnings Announcement DriftDossier · $29 · 27 Apr 2026The CAR was almost identical at T+3 (−13.97%) and T+63 (−14.03%) — but the underlying mechanic differed: T+3 was the immediate gap-down reaction; T+63 was the SPY rally (+7.14%) that CRM didn't participate in (−6.89% absolute).
• Software vs Semis — The Axis TurnedWeekly Signal · 23 Aug 2026The broad-index version: SPXT / SPY over one year.
• Gold and Bitcoin — The Hedges Bear No InterestWeekly Signal · 2 Aug 2026
• AI Capex — The Tell Fired TwiceWeekly Signal · 26 Jul 2026The week, for the record Closelook indices (EW) Week Post-print (Wed→Fri) Markets (wk) Rubin Build-Out +0.4% −4.3% S&P 500 (SPY) −0.6% Agentic Infrastructure −2.9% −2.4% Nasdaq-100 (QQQ) −1.6% · 684.23, below the 686.37 floor Agentic…
• Sector Rotation — Three Rotations, One WeekWeekly Signal · 19 Jul 2026
• Earnings Season — The Bar Meets Its First PrintsWeekly Signal · 12 Jul 2026
• Stock Picking — The Haystack and the Needle · Closelook Heresy XIIHeresy · 7 Jul 2026On the odds: “We find that the percentage of bootstrapped mutual fund portfolios that outperform the SPY during the full thirty-year sample decreases from 47.5% at the monthly horizon to 5.5% at the 30-year horizon.” And on…
• When You Think the Rally Pauses, Sell Calls — Not Your ETFStrategy · 10 Jun 2026SPY, QQQ, and IWM (Russell 2000) carry world-class option liquidity; DIA (Dow) is a step behind but workable.

101 and glossary

• Beta ConvexityGlossaryHow Closelook Measures It Closelook's market-structure toolbox computes up-beta and down-beta per name against SPY as the benchmark, reporting the convexity gap alongside other structural metrics such as drawdown behavior.
• Bollinger Coiling: When Volatility Compresses Before Expanding101Coils in the macro basket — particularly in SPY, QQQ, and TLT — are disproportionately informative.
• Cascade Tracker: The 5-Domino Model of Regime Breakdown101If pairs break out-of-order (say, TLT-SPY before QQQ-SPY), it signals something unusual about the stress source — rate-driven rather than risk-appetite-driven, for example.
• Cointegration: When the Rules of the Game Change101The SPY/GLD relationship, the equity-bond correlation, the gold-dollar inverse — these are the structural assumptions that underpin portfolio construction.
• Hurst Exponent: Persistence, Mean-Reversion, or Random Walk101For a pair like SPY-GLD, the spread's Hurst tells you whether the current market is treating the relationship as a mean-reverting equilibrium (healthy) or as a trending divergence (breaking).
• Money Temperature: Measuring Regime Intensity, Not Predicting Direction101The practical value comes from cross-reading: when SPY reads 72 and TLT reads 25, that configuration has a name, a history, and actionable implications.
• Sector Relative Strength: RRG Without the Jargon101Time Horizons 21-day RRG : Tactical rotation, useful for short-term positioning 63-day RRG : Medium-term sector cycles, useful for portfolio tilts 252-day RRG : Structural rotation, useful for thematic positioning Closelook’s Lab…
• Stack Flip: When Price Crosses the 200-Day Moving Average101Ignoring flips in major macro instruments (SPY, QQQ, TLT, GLD) means missing the moments when regimes visibly change.

Dailies

• Fed day — relief before the decision: 10-year 4.96%, Brent under $107.63, chips reclaim $505, Nasdaq-100 above $708.69Midday 10 · 16 Sept 2026ETF board, pre-Fed relief: SPY +0.4% to $760.70 above $757.83, QQQ +0.9% to $710.89 above $708.69, IWM +0.4%, DIA flat, equal-weight +0.1%; SOXX +2.0% to $508.60 back above $505, SMH +1.7%, tech +1.1%, software flat at $105.41; TLT +0.5%…
• Rates — Fed day at a 5% 10-year: the hike is priced, the cycle is not; Yardeni cuts the S&P target to 7,900Morning 10 · 16 Sept 2026
• Rates — the 10-year hits 5.01%: Dow −0.9%, Russell −1.2%, the AI sort pauses, Oracle and Adobe hold their linesMidday 10 · 15 Sept 2026ETF board: a rates day — SPY −0.5% to $757.13 under Thursday’s $757.83, QQQ −0.5% to $705.37 above 704, DIA −0.9%, IWM −1.2%, equal-weight −0.4%; SOXX +0.3% to $498.65 under $505, SMH +0.1%, tech flat, software flat at $106.62; TLT −0.2%…
• AI trade — the labs ask for a slowdown: Kospi −3.3%, SoftBank −11%, Nasdaq futures −1.2%, oil back above $106Morning 10 · 14 Sept 2026
• AI trade — the pacing call splits tech: chips −5%, software +4.5%, security +12–15%, 10-year hits 5%Midday 10 · 14 Sept 2026ETF board: index flat, AI trade split — SPY −0.4%, QQQ −0.7% back above 704, DIA flat, IWM −0.2%, equal-weight flat; SOXX −5.2% to $499.81 through $517.43 and $505, SMH −4.4%, tech −1.4%; software +4.5% to $106.07; energy −0.2% with oil…
• Oil settles at $107.63, the 10-year hits 4.95% and the 30-year 5.36%, its highest since 2007: chips lead a fourth down day, Oracle beats and jumps 4% after hours, Adobe beats and slips — and Asia sells its chipmakers 3% to 7%Morning 10 · 11 Sept 2026
• Stocks snap a four-day losing streak as oil slips under $100 and chips bounce 2% — despite core inflation hotter than hoped and Fed hike odds at 82%; Oracle gives back its entire after-hours jumpMidday 10 · 11 Sept 2026ETF board: first up day in five — SPY +1.0%, QQQ +1.2%, DIA +1.0%, IWM +0.6%, equal-weight +0.8%; chips lead, SOXX +2.4%, SMH +2.1%, tech +1.6%, industrials +1.1%; software +0.2%, energy +0.4% with oil −2.7%; VIX −12% to 15.8
• Brent closes above $100 for the first time since July and the 10-year hits 4.86%: Wall Street falls a third day while Cloudflare +10%, Datadog +7% and Meta +7% catch the money the chip leaders gave backMorning 10 · 10 Sept 2026