Second-Tier Chips — Back at the July Low, Leg Two Begins

One signal to define the week and shape the month. Three minutes, six questions. Every Sunday at 21:00 CET — scored the next.

18 October 2026 · stock and bond closes through Fri Oct 16.

0 · Last week, scored

Verdict: the floor held — financials rose 1.4% through the bank reports and never closed near 53.40; inside the sector, Berkshire made a new high while Goldman and KKR made new lows.

Last Sunday's signal was financials: the early warning of September withdrawn, for now, with the bank reports as the test. The financial sector fund's lowest close of the week was 54.52, well above the 53.40 line, and it finished at 55.52 — still under its 50-day average of 56.28. The split we described widened. Berkshire Hathaway rose 3.2% and closed above its August high. JPMorgan held its line on every close and ended the week up 2.0%. Goldman Sachs closed under its 8 October low on Wednesday, and KKR fell 5.2% to the lowest close since March. The safe part of the sector kept turning; the deal-makers and the private-credit firm did not.

Table as text

Level set last Sunday	Line	This week	Scored
Financials (XLF)	53.40 / 56.53	54.52 lowest close, 55.52 Friday, +1.4%	floor held, 50-day not reached
JPMorgan (JPM)	329.58	331.43 lowest close, 339.72 Friday, +2.0%	held
Goldman Sachs (GS)	882.59	878.72 Wednesday, 881.26 Friday, −1.6%	broken
KKR	89.56	85.60 Wednesday, 86.21 Friday, −5.2%	broken
Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B)	529.42	532.02 Friday, +3.2%	August high taken
S&P 500 fund (SPY)	779.09 / 767.57	763.25 Friday, −2.0%	back under the 50-day
US 10-year yield	5.31% / 5.0%	5.10% Friday	lower, not yet under 5%

Closelooknet data lake · Friday closes through Oct 16 · a level is “taken” on a closing basis.