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Midday: Chips Lead Market Down, Oil $105, 10-Year 4.92%

Chips lead the market down as oil tops $105 and the 10-year hits 4.92%: Micron −4%, Intel −4%, Nvidia −2.5% — while software posts its first up day in six and Apple gains 3%

The midday tape has re-coupled, and downward. The S&P 500 is down 0.4%, the Nasdaq 100 0.7%, the Russell 2000 0.7%, and for the first time in four sessions the chips are falling faster than the market: the semiconductor ETF is down 2.0% with the memory and CPU names that led the week giving it back — Micron −4.3%, Intel −4.4%, SanDisk −4.0%, Western Digital −3.9%, AMD −2.7%, Nvidia −2.5% to $218. The pressure is the same two prices as all week, only higher: Brent $105.78, up 4.5%, and WTI back above $100 after President Trump warned Iran the US would ‘hit them very hard’; the 10-year at 4.92%, its highest since 2023, the 30-year at 5.34%, its highest since 2007. Producer prices matched the 0.4% consensus with a soft 0.2% core, the ECB raised to 2.50% and would not commit to more, jobless claims held at 206,000. The exception is the group that has been sold all week: the software ETF is up 0.5%, its first gain in six sessions, with ServiceNow +2.1% and Apple +2.7% the day after its event. Oracle and Adobe report after the close.

In this edition

SOXX SMH IGV CIBR XLK XLE MU INTC

The Midday 10 Thu, Sep 10, 2026 ~60 seconds 12:00 ET

We set three numbers for Wednesday’s close and one for Thursday’s open, and by 11:30 New York all of them have been answered the same way. The chips are no longer on the opposite side of the market from the index — they are on the same side and further down it: the iShares semiconductor ETF is off 2.0% against a 0.4% fall in the S&P 500, and the names that were holding the trade together on Wednesday are the ones being sold. Micron is down 4.3% at $984, back under $1,000; Intel 4.4% at $102, giving back half of Tuesday’s 9% jump; SanDisk 4.0%, Western Digital 3.9%, Arm 3.5%, Astera Labs 3.2%, AMD 2.7% at $507, Nvidia 2.5% at $218, Lumentum 2.8%. Broadcom is flat, TSMC −0.9%, ASML −1.0%, Qualcomm +0.6% — the leaders that faded on Wednesday are the calmest part of the complex today, which is what a rotation running in reverse looks like.

The reason is the same as it has been all week, only bigger. Brent is at $105.78, up 4.5% on the day, and WTI is back above $100 at $100.43 after President Trump said Iran should not ‘get cute’ because the United States ‘will have to hit them very hard’ over activity detected at the Pickaxe Mountain site, on top of Wednesday’s largest exchange of attacks on tankers since the war began. The 10-year Treasury yield is at 4.92%, up about 7 basis points and its highest since 2023; the 5-year at 4.72%, up 10; the 30-year at 5.34%, a level last seen in 2007. Producer prices for August rose 0.4%, matching the consensus, with the core measure a tenth soft at 0.2% and the annual rate at 5.4%; initial jobless claims were 206,000. The European Central Bank raised all three rates a quarter point, the deposit rate to 2.50%, and Christine Lagarde declined to commit to another move, which sent the euro to $1.16 and the Stoxx 600 down 0.6%. The bond market has not taken the soft core as relief: with a $105 barrel, it is trading the September hike as settled and the question as what comes after.

The one part of the market moving the other way is the part that has been sold all week. The iShares software ETF is up 0.5% at $102.38, its first gain in six sessions, with ServiceNow +2.1%, Salesforce +0.6%, Datadog +0.5% and Shopify +0.3% after two heavy days; Cloudflare −0.2% at $313 and Meta −0.2% at $652 are holding Wednesday’s 10% and 7% gains rather than giving them back. Apple is up 2.7% at $324 the day after its event, as Citi called the $1,999 foldable iPhone Duo its biggest new hardware category since the watch and Bank of America kept its buy rating; Booking +1.4% and SpaceX +1.5% are bouncing after Wednesday’s falls. Oracle −1.9% at $159 and Adobe −1.3% at $252 report after the close, and both windows on our print record open from today’s closes. The rest of this note is the board, the names, the levels — and what decides the last four hours.

US midday, intraday quotes (delayed, ~11:30 ET)

  1. ETF board: chips lead the market down — SOXX −2.0%, SMH −1.8%, tech −1.0% — while software posts its first gain in six sessions at +0.5% and cyber +0.8%; energy falls with oil at $105
  2. The memory names give it back: Micron −4.3% under $1,000, Intel −4.4%, SanDisk −4.0%, Western Digital −3.9%, Arm −3.5%, Astera −3.2%, AMD −2.7%, Nvidia −2.5% at $218
  3. Software turns before the prints: IGV +0.5% after five down days, ServiceNow +2.1%, Salesforce +0.6%, Datadog +0.5%, Shopify +0.3% — Cloudflare and Meta hold Wednesday’s gains, Apple +2.7% after its event
  4. The whole curve sells: 10-year 4.92%, highest since 2023; 5-year 4.72%; 30-year 5.34%, highest since 2007 — TLT trades below its August low, IEF and SHY at new lows
  5. Oil: Brent $105.78, up 4.5%, WTI back above $100 after Trump’s ‘hit them very hard’ warning — and energy stocks are falling anyway
  6. Europe closes lower after the ECB’s hike to 2.50%: Stoxx 600 −0.6%, DAX −0.7%, euro $1.16 — Lagarde will not commit to another move
  7. Oracle −1.9% at $159 and Adobe −1.3% at $252 into tonight’s prints: the street carries $1.73 on $19.13 billion and $6.07 on $6.69 billion, options price an 11% Oracle move — both windows open from today’s closes
  8. PPI in line, core soft, ECB done, claims steady — and the bond market traded the barrel instead: what Friday’s CPI has to do now
  9. The average stock and the mega-caps: Russell −0.7% for a third day, Apple +2.7% the only large gainer — Amazon, Alphabet, Microsoft and Meta flat, Tesla −0.6%
  10. What decides the close: SOXX against the S&P at 4 pm, the 10-year at 4.92%, Brent’s settlement above $105, the software ETF’s first green close in six — then Oracle at 4:05 pm and Adobe after it

The ten lines

  1. 1

    BOARD ETF board: chips lead the market down — SOXX −2.0%, SMH −1.8%, tech −1.0% — while software posts its first gain in six sessions at +0.5% and cyber +0.8%; energy falls with oil at $105

    SOXXSMHIGVCIBRXLKXLE

    The board has turned over since Wednesday’s close. The iShares semiconductor ETF is down 2.0% at $521 and the VanEck fund 1.8%, the technology sector fund 1.0%, so the sector that beat the index for three sessions is now the one dragging it: S&P 500 −0.4%, Nasdaq 100 −0.7%, Dow −0.5%, Russell 2000 −0.7%. On the other side, the iShares software ETF is up 0.5% at $102.38 — its first up day since 1 September — the cybersecurity fund +0.8% and the cloud fund flat. Health care is off 0.5%. The odd line is energy: the sector fund is down 0.8% with Brent up 4.5%, Exxon +0.2% and Chevron −0.3%, so the equity market is not buying the barrel — it is treating $105 as a demand and rate problem, not an earnings story. The VIX is up 5% at 17.3, the long-bond fund TLT −0.9%, gold −0.9%, the bitcoin fund −1.4%: nothing on the board is acting as the hedge.

  2. 2

    DOWN The memory names give it back: Micron −4.3% under $1,000, Intel −4.4%, SanDisk −4.0%, Western Digital −3.9%, Arm −3.5%, Astera −3.2%, AMD −2.7%, Nvidia −2.5% at $218

    MUINTCSNDKWDCARMALABAMDNVDA

    On Wednesday we wrote that a same-sign close for chips and the index would make the memory names’ gains the next thing to be sold, and that is the shape of Thursday morning. Micron is down 4.3% at $984 after closing above $1,000 on Wednesday, Intel 4.4% at $102 after a 9% Tuesday, SanDisk 4.0% at $1,693, Western Digital 3.9% at $464, Arm 3.5%, Astera Labs 3.2% at $291 after a 4% Wednesday, AMD 2.7% at $507, Nvidia 2.5% at $218. The optical and connectivity names that led Tuesday are lower too — Lumentum −2.8%, Corning −1.6%, Coherent −0.7% — while the mega-cap leaders that faded on Wednesday are the steadiest part of the group: Broadcom flat at $364, TSMC −0.9%, ASML −1.0%, Qualcomm +0.6%. That inversion — the week’s winners down 3% to 4%, the week’s laggards flat — is positioning being unwound, not a change of view on demand. Our Rubin index recomputes on tonight’s closes; on Wednesday’s it was flat with Systems +3.4% and Memory +2.0% against Thermal −3.1%, and today’s tape would compress that spread from the top.

  3. Sector Engine Eleven sectors by four regions — the global rotation matrix Bloomberg keeps for institutions. Open the matrix →
  4. 3

    UP Software turns before the prints: IGV +0.5% after five down days, ServiceNow +2.1%, Salesforce +0.6%, Datadog +0.5%, Shopify +0.3% — Cloudflare and Meta hold Wednesday’s gains, Apple +2.7% after its event

    IGVNOWCRMDDOGSHOPNETMETAAAPL

    The software ETF is green for the first time since 1 September, and it is green for a different reason than Wednesday’s bounce. On Wednesday five names with headlines rallied inside a falling fund; today the fund is up 0.5% while the names without news are the ones rising — ServiceNow +2.1% at $134 after a week of selling, Salesforce +0.6%, Datadog +0.5%, Shopify +0.3% at $127 after losing 13% in two days, Microsoft flat. Wednesday’s winners are holding rather than extending: Cloudflare −0.2% at $313 after +10.5%, Meta −0.2% at $652 after +6.6%. That is the pattern we said would mark a floor rather than a bid for stories — the names without news stopping their fall — and it is appearing on the morning the two software prints of the week are due. Apple is up 2.7% at $324, reversing Wednesday’s sell-the-news dip after its event: Citi kept a buy and a $365 target, calling the $1,999 iPhone Duo Apple’s biggest new hardware category since the watch and AirPods; Bank of America kept its buy and trimmed its target to $370. Booking +1.4% and SpaceX +1.5% are bouncing after Wednesday’s 4% falls; Amazon and Alphabet are flat.

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C · line 11 · members

Today in line 11: why chips and the index re-coupling on the downside is the first real change in the week’s sort, and why it is an unwind rather than a reversal — what it means that the software ETF turned green on the morning its two biggest prints are due, why energy stocks falling on a 4.5% oil day matters more than the oil price itself, how the whole Treasury curve selling rewrites this morning’s belly read, and the four numbers that decide whether Friday’s CPI arrives into a market that has already priced it.

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Further reading on Closelook

Ten lines on the US midday tape, not advice — an investment diary. Published every trading day at 12:30 ET. See The Morning 10 and the Daily Pulse.