Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) — the peer cohort

Long reads

• The Agentic Winners 25Dossier · $49 · 31 Mar 2026Bellwethers — large, liquid names like Microsoft, Salesforce, and Intuit whose price action telegraphs sector sentiment before mid-caps move.
• NVIDIA 2030Dossier · $49 · 24 Mar 2026The historical analogy chain — Microsoft (Windows monopoly) → Apple (consumer computing platform) → AWS (global cloud utility) → NVIDIA (global intelligence utility) — frames the scale of what is happening.
• Agentic Application Software: The SaaSpocalypse MapDossier · $39 · 27 Feb 2026Palantir (PLTR) · ServiceNow (NOW) · SAP (partial — ERP data locked in) Productivity & Collaboration Adapt or die — copilots vs replacement Microsoft owns the distribution channel: 365 + Copilot captures the vast majority of enterprise…
• AI Economy — Three Futures for 2030, and the One the Model Leaves OutReport · 14 Sept 2026Microsoft’s chief executive welcomed deliberate pacing.
• Google and RSI — The Loop Nobody Has ClosedReport · 13 Sept 2026
• Magnificent Seven — The Seven at the ShelfWeekly Signal · 30 Aug 2026The Magnificent Seven fund was +2.66% on the week against the flat index, Microsoft led the board at +6.3%, and six of the seven were green.
• Pattern 03 — NVIDIA Strategic Authority InvestmentReport · 12 May 2026Three rhythmic series run alongside the dated events: Hyperscaler earnings (MSFT / GOOGL / META / AMZN, quarterly) — capex disclosures set NVIDIA's tape.
• The SaaS Litmus Test: Is The March Bottom Real?Weekly Signal · 19 Apr 2026

101 and glossary

• Agentic AI Adoption Curve: Where We Are and What Comes Next101The 'Cannibalize or Die' companies that pivoted early (Microsoft Copilot, Salesforce Agentforce) start showing agent-platform revenue.
• The CapEx Cliff Question: When Does AI Infrastructure Spending Peak?101Hyperscalers (Microsoft, Google, Amazon, Meta) are spending over $200 billion annually on AI infrastructure.

Dailies

• Expiry Friday — the equipment names join at last: Applied +4.4%, Lam +5.2%, memory ETF over $58, 10-year back at 5%Midday 10 · 18 Sept 2026Software sold on the belly again: software ETF −1.4% to $104.33; Oracle −3.4% to $145.65, back under its $148.35 sold line a day after retaking it; Adobe −1.3% to $249.39, further under its $256.29 paid line; Microsoft −0.7%, Intel −1.7%
• Day after the hike — yields fall and the lines are retaken: 10-year 4.95%, chips +3% over $505, S&P ETF above $757.83Midday 10 · 17 Sept 2026Software recovers less than it fell: software ETF +0.9% to $105.93 after three days of selling; Microsoft +1.3% to $496.79, CrowdStrike +1.7% to $245.55, Adobe flat at $250.19 under its $256.29 paid line
• Rates — the Fed hikes and the 10-year closes above 5%: the belly sold, the relief unwound, chips back under $505Morning 10 · 17 Sept 2026The other three on the hike: Agentic Winners 40 −1.3% to 921.21 — Applications −1.5%, UiPath −4.2%, CoStar −3.8%, Duolingo −3.7%, Intuit −3.4%, Adobe −2.8%, ServiceNow −1.5%, Microsoft −1.4%, Oracle +2.0%; HALO −0.3% to 1,005.06, Energy…
• Fed day — relief before the decision: 10-year 4.96%, Brent under $107.63, chips reclaim $505, Nasdaq-100 above $708.69Midday 10 · 16 Sept 2026Software is the laggard: the software ETF flat at $105.41, Microsoft −0.5%, ServiceNow −0.8%; the security names hold, Palo Alto +1.2%.
• AI trade — sellers of compute sold, buyers bought: chips −5.6%, software +5%, SoftBank +7% in TokyoMorning 10 · 15 Sept 2026Microsoft, Alphabet and Meta — the three that buy the most compute — closed up 2% to 3%.
• Rates — the 10-year hits 5.01%: Dow −0.9%, Russell −1.2%, the AI sort pauses, Oracle and Adobe hold their linesMidday 10 · 15 Sept 2026The security group keeps its bid — CrowdStrike +2.9%, SentinelOne +2.3%, Zscaler +1.8% — and the buyers of compute give some back: Alphabet −1.6%, Amazon −1.5%, Apple −1.0%, Microsoft −0.8%.
• Chips lead the market down as oil tops $105 and the 10-year hits 4.92%: Micron −4%, Intel −4%, Nvidia −2.5% — while software posts its first up day in six and Apple gains 3%Midday 10 · 10 Sept 2026On Wednesday five names with headlines rallied inside a falling fund; today the fund is up 0.5% while the names without news are the ones rising — ServiceNow +2.1% at $134 after a week of selling, Salesforce +0.6%, Datadog +0.5%, Shopify…
• Chips up again, software down again — Friday's split is turning into a trendMidday 10 · 8 Sept 2026Shopify is down about 7.2%, Intuit 5.7%, Workday 5.6%, Booking 5.8%, ServiceNow 4.3%, Salesforce 3.5%, Adobe 3.3%, MongoDB 2.7%, Datadog 2.3%, Palantir 1.7% and Microsoft 1.4%.