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Elastic NV (ESTC) — chart, structure and Closelooknet read

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Our record on ESTC

Every scored call, pick and trade this diary has made on Elastic NV, with the outcome where it is known.

Company snapshot — Elastic NV

ESTC in five paragraphs: what it makes and sells, where it sits in the Closelooknet stack, who it is priced against, why we track it, what we watch. Research diary, not advice.

What it does
Elastic builds software for searching, storing and analysing data across hybrid and multi-cloud setups, sold as Elasticsearch. Its platform includes a vector database and search engine for text, numeric and unstructured data, a Kibana interface for management, tools that let language models retrieve grounded answers, a security product and an observability suite for logs and infrastructure. It sells mostly through cloud subscriptions. Elastic is based in Amsterdam and listed in the United States after its 2018 IPO.
Where it sits in the stack
Elastic holds a seat in the Agentic Winners 40, our index for software that agentic AI systems run on. It carries no Rubin layer seat, but the diary's dossiers place it in the data-organisation part of that build-out, among software platforms that query and structure data for retrieval, sitting downstream of the flash-storage vendors that hold the data.
Who it is priced against
Our curated peer group prices Elastic against observability and data platforms — Datadog, Dynatrace, ServiceNow, Snowflake and MongoDB — the set the market compares it with rather than a simple sector match.
Why Closelooknet tracks it
Elastic sits in our Agentic Winners 40 index and carries a Closelooknet score, though only one module is built so far, so the score is still forming. The diary has quoted it across dossiers on agentic winners, on agentic application software and on the orchestration layer of agentic infrastructure, each naming it as the search and retrieval piece other platforms build against.
What the diary watches
The diary watches whether rival data platforms in its peer group add comparable vector-search and retrieval tools, which would test Elastic's place as the retrieval backbone named in the dossiers, and whether coverage widens enough for a second score module.

Elastic NV (ESTC) trades on US exchanges, classified under Technology. Constituent of Agentic Winners 40.

The Closelooknet company score reads 47/100 composite (momentum 89, quality 52, valuation 29) across 7 modules — the full breakdown, chart structure and analog history load live above.

Written from the company’s public profile and Closelooknet’s own readings, 2026-09-17. Descriptive, refreshed with the registry; corrections welcome via the imprint. closelook.net is an investment research diary — market structure, index membership and scores are our own readings, not investment advice. Related: index compare · sector dispersion · scanner.

Signals for this name

Every Closelooknet reading that exists for ESTC, from the same nightly bakes the boards use. Research diary readings, not advice.

The Street on this name 4 analyst actions on the wire · latest: price target by Guggenheim, 2026-08-28 · last print 2026-08-27

The Street on this name

Analyst actions and the latest print for ESTC from the Closelooknet wires — third-party opinions on the record, not our readings.

  • Price target Guggenheim — target 120 from 106 Target raised to $120 from $106 (+43.3% to spot) 2026-08-28
  • Price target Stifel as Sales Revenue Accelerate — target 107 Target set to $107 (+27.8% to spot) 2026-08-28
  • Price target BofA Securities — target 108 Target set to $108 (+29% to spot) 2026-08-28
  • Latest print EPS 0.70 against 0.58 expected — a +19.9% beat 2026-08-27

4 actions on the analyst wire since 2026-08-13: 4 target changes. Analyst wire → · Earnings wire →

Who it is priced against Observability and data platforms · 5 names with week and year-to-date

Peer group

Observability and data platforms

Curated competitor set — who the market prices this name against, not just who shares its sector.

  • DDOGDatadog Inc
    day
    +1.6%
    vs 50d
    +3.6%
    off high
    −14.1%
    score
    55

    flow: flat

  • DTDynatrace Holdings LLC
    day
    +0.9%
    vs 50d
    +18.8%
    off high
    −0.5%
    score
    58

    flow: getting stronger

  • NOWServiceNow Inc
    day
    +2.8%
    vs 50d
    +13.1%
    off high
    −10.8%
    score
    57

    flow: getting stronger

  • SNOWSnowflake Inc.
    day
    −0.5%
    vs 50d
    +6.5%
    off high
    −12.9%
    score
    46

    flow: getting stronger

  • MDBMongoDB
    day
    +0.2%
    vs 50d
    +12.0%
    off high
    −9.5%
    score
    50

    flow: getting stronger

Compared against ESTC on the nightly bakes; the Peers tab ranks the cohort on the Closelooknet scores where it exists.

Versus its index Agentic Ecosystem Index — the name, its sleeve and the index over day, week and month

Versus its index

The name against its Closelooknet index and its own sleeve — equal-weight, nightly closes.

Agentic Ecosystem Index · as of 2026-09-24

DayWeekMonth3 months
ESTC0.0%+2.6%+13.5%+70.3%
Data & Memory+1.9%+4.6%+9.4%—
Agentic Ecosystem Index−0.1%+5.2%+14.1%—

Against the index: 2.6 pts behind on the week, 0.6 pts behind on the month; against its Data & Memory sleeve 4.1 pts ahead on the month.

Returns from the index workers’ nightly closes; equal-weight sleeves. A relative reading from the research diary, not advice.

Dividends and capital return no distribution in twelve months · buybacks 340 m USD in FY2026

Dividends and capital return

What ESTC pays out and buys back — distributions read from the price series, money terms from the filings.

  • Distributions No cash distribution recorded in the price series over the last three years
  • Buybacks, FY2026 340 m USD 3.6% of today's market value
  • Share count +3.4% in FY2026 298 m USD of stock-based compensation in the year
  • Capital returned 340 m USD · 106% of free cash flow dividends and buybacks together, against the year’s free cash flow

Per-share amounts are derived from the adjusted price series in the listing currency, so dates sit within days of the ex-date; filing figures come from the fundamentals feed for the last reported fiscal year. An investment diary, not a recommendation.

How it trades on rate days beta 0.50 to TLT · on the worst bond days it held up better than the market

How it trades on rate days

How ESTC has moved when long-dated Treasury yields rise — measured against TLT, the 20+ year Treasury fund.

  • Beta to long bonds, 1 year 0.50 — shows only a loose link to bond moves for every 1% move in TLT (20+ year Treasuries), Elastic NV moved 0.50% on average · correlation 0.08 · higher than 52% of US names
  • Beta, last 3 months 0.90 more rate-sensitive lately than over the year
  • On the 10 worst bond days +0.11% on average against −0.74% for the S&P 500 the 10 sessions of the past year in which TLT fell most, i.e. long yields rose most
  • Latest of those days 0.00% TLT −1.29% that day 2026-09-24

Daily total returns from the adjusted price series; a TLT down day is a day long yields rose. Beta = the average move of the name for a 1% move in TLT. Past sensitivity, not a forecast. An investment diary, not a recommendation.

Weather around the name 4 macro readings: Money Temperature, Factor regime, Sector × region …

The weather around this name

Macro readings that apply by membership — the regime, the factor tape, the sector cell, the funding backdrop.

  • Money Temperature Composite 60/100 · S&P 500 fund at 66, bullish alignedEight instruments scored on position, momentum, volume, volatility and fragility — the regime every name trades inside. Temperature lab → 2026-09-24
  • Factor regime Momentum leading — risk appetite buildingMomentum against low volatility (SPMO / SPLV): above its 50-day trend, 99th percentile of the window, +10.1% over 20 sessions. Factor regime → 2026-09-24
  • Sector × region Technology in US: +3.7% week · +7.3% month · +5.6% quarter · +39.8% yearThe Sector Engine cell this name lives in, from XLK.US; the 11 × 4 matrix shows where its sector is being bought and where it is being sold. Sector Engine → 2026-09-24
  • Sovereign pressure Index 0.75 · up 0.21 over 21 sessionsG7 long-end yields, 10s30s and the slope — the funding weather for every balance sheet on this site. Sovereign pressure → 2026-09-24

FAQ · from the current data · as of 2026-09-25

Quick answers

What is Elastic NV (ESTC)?

Elastic NV trades as ESTC on the US exchange (US) and is classified under Technology in the Closelooknet research universe, as of the registry build of 2026-09-25.

Is ESTC in a Closelooknet index?

Yes — Elastic NV is a constituent of Agentic Winners 40, as of 2026-09-25.

What is Elastic NV's Closelooknet composite score?

47 out of 100, with momentum 89, quality 52 and valuation 29 sub-scores, as of 2026-09-25. Scores are Closelooknet's own research readings, not ratings or investment advice.

What is Elastic NV's earnings print record?

Across the 11 prints Closelooknet covers, Elastic NV beat EPS estimates 11 times and revenue estimates 11 times; the three-day reactions split 5 up, 1 flat and 5 down (moves beyond ±3%), as of the 2026-08-28 card. The full print-record card carries the per-print history.

Where does ESTC trade against its moving averages?

Trending: Above its 20-, 50- and 200-day — still in an uptrend. As of 2026-09-23 — a technical state from the nightly Closelooknet bake, not advice. The Technical tab carries the full row.

How is ESTC doing against its Closelooknet index?

Over the past month Elastic NV is +13.5% against +14.1% for the Agentic Ecosystem Index — 0.6 points behind its index, as of 2026-09-24. Its Data & Memory sleeve is +9.4% over the same month. The “Versus its index” table on this page carries the day, the week and the month for the name, its sleeve and the index.

What does Elastic NV do?

Elastic builds software for searching, storing and analysing data across hybrid and multi-cloud setups, sold as Elasticsearch. Its platform includes a vector database and search engine for text, numeric and unstructured data, a Kibana interface for management, tools that let language models retrieve grounded answers, a security product and an observability suite for logs and infrastructure. It sells mostly through cloud subscriptions. Our curated peer group prices Elastic against observability and data platforms — Datadog, Dynatrace, ServiceNow, Snowflake and MongoDB — the set the market compares it with rather than a simple sector match.

Where does Elastic NV sit in the AI build-out?

Elastic holds a seat in the Agentic Winners 40, our index for software that agentic AI systems run on. It carries no Rubin layer seat, but the diary's dossiers place it in the data-organisation part of that build-out, among software platforms that query and structure data for retrieval, sitting downstream of the flash-storage vendors that hold the data. Elastic sits in our Agentic Winners 40 index and carries a Closelooknet score, though only one module is built so far, so the score is still forming. The diary has quoted it across dossiers on agentic winners, on agentic application software and on the orchestration layer of agentic infrastructure, each naming it as the search and retrieval piece other platforms build against.

Does Elastic NV pay a dividend?

No cash distribution shows in Elastic NV’s price series over the last three years. In fiscal 2026 the company bought back 340 m USD of its own shares, 106% of that year’s free cash flow. The share count rose 3.4% over the fiscal year. The "Dividends and capital return" block on this page carries the lines.

How does Elastic NV trade when bond yields rise?

Over the past year Elastic NV had a beta of 0.50 to TLT, the long-dated Treasury fund — it shows only a loose link to bond moves, higher than 52% of US names. On the 10 sessions in which long bonds fell most it moved +0.11% on average, against −0.74% for the S&P 500. The "How it trades on rate days" block on this page carries the lines.

What has Wall Street done on Elastic NV recently?

The most recent analyst action on Elastic NV on the Closelooknet wire is a price target by Guggenheim on 2026-08-28 (target 120 from 106). 4 actions on the analyst wire since 2026-08-13: 4 target changes. Its latest earnings print on the wire, 2026-08-27: EPS 0.70 against 0.58 expected — a +19.9% beat. Analyst actions are third-party opinions recorded by the wire, not Closelooknet readings. The “The Street on this name” block on this page lists the moves; the full feeds are the analyst wire and the earnings wire.

Where has Closelooknet written about Elastic NV?

Elastic NV appears in 8 Closelooknet pieces, most recently Daily Pulse: From Silicon Scarcity to Software Scarcity: The Next AI Bottleneck Is Permission to Act, and the Market Graded It This Week (2026-09-03); Morning 10: Great numbers, falling stocks — the market has stopped rewarding even record earnings (2026-09-02); Morning 10: The bar moves overnight: three beat-and-raise prints get sold after hours. (2026-08-28). What Closelooknet said most recently: Marvell, Autodesk and IREN fell too; only Elastic was rewarded, and Workday finished a dollar short. (Morning 10, 2026-09-02). The "Mentioned on Closelooknet" block on this page lists the long reads, the reference entries and the dailies that name it.

What does this page show?

A live price chart with SMA overlays and drawing tools for ESTC, performance metrics, index-membership context and the Closelooknet structure read — an investment research diary view, not investment advice.

Mentioned on Closelooknet 8 pieces · newest: Daily Pulse, “From Silicon Scarcity to Software Scarcity: The Next AI Bottleneck Is Permission to Act, and the Market Graded It This Week” (2026-09-03)

Mentioned on Closelooknet

Where ESTC appears in the diary — 8 pieces, newest first. Every link is our own writing.

Go deeper

Long reads

  • The Agentic Winners 25Dossier · $49 · 31 Mar 2026Elastic is the search and retrieval backbone — its vector search capabilities power the RAG pipelines that ground agent responses in enterprise data.
  • Agentic Application Software: The SaaSpocalypse MapDossier · $39 · 27 Feb 2026Long AI infrastructure from Strand 2: Datadog (DDOG — observability gravity), Cloudflare (NET — edge distribution), Snowflake (SNOW — data gravity), MongoDB (MDB — developer ecosystem), Pure Storage (PSTG — ICMS context memory), Elastic…
  • Agentic Infrastructure Software: The Orchestration LayerDossier · $39 · 24 Feb 2026The hardware requires all-flash array partners (Pure Storage, NetApp, Dell) to build the physical boxes, while software platforms (Elastic, MongoDB, Snowflake) organize and query the data.

Dailies

Related in the Closelooknet universe

same Closelooknet index seat first, then Software - Application. Scored names rank on their Closelooknet score; names without one rank on trend state — above or below their 50- and 200-day averages — never on a score they do not carry.