Nasdaq +1.5% as TLT Breaks 78: Morning 10

QQQ^N225EWJEWY

What

Tokyo's Nikkei 225 closed 3.29% higher at about 68,950, from 66,753.72 on Wednesday; chip-equipment and AI names led on Micron's results. Japan's quarterly Tankan survey showed large manufacturers at +24, up from +22 in June and just under the +25 expected. Seoul's Kospi opened lower, then turned up about 1% to around 6,920, with Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix up about 2% each by midday. Hong Kong and mainland China are closed for Golden Week. In the US, Nasdaq 100 futures are up 1.5% before the open — a strong start to the fourth quarter after the S&P 500 closed Wednesday 0.25% lower at 7,651.54.

If

The Nasdaq 100 holds a gain of 1% or more into the close.

Why

Stocks are rising while long bonds fall to a one-year low. Normally higher long yields hit growth stocks first; a 1.5% Nasdaq gain on the morning after TLT broke 78 says buyers care more about AI earnings than about rates right now. If the gain holds through the session, Wednesday's soft finish was quarter-end selling, not a turn.

Then

With China on holiday until 8 October, Tokyo and Seoul carry Asia's reaction for the rest of the week. The Midday 10 checks whether the US open holds the futures gain.

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MU000660.KS005930.KSSNDKDRAM

What

Fiscal fourth quarter: revenue $54.23 billion (about $51.07 billion expected), adjusted earnings $33.42 a share ($31.52 expected), gross margin about 87%. Memory chips for servers and PCs (DRAM) brought in a record $39.8 billion, 73% of revenue and up 343% on the year; DRAM prices rose in the high teens from the previous quarter. Most of Micron's 2027 supply of high-bandwidth memory for AI chips is already sold under contract at higher prices. Guide for the current quarter: $61.5 billion plus or minus $1.5 billion (about $57 billion expected), earnings $38.15 a share (about $35.40 expected), margin about 86.25% — which Micron calls the low point for the year. Spending on plants and equipment rises to about $11.5 billion this quarter and about $25 billion in the first half, most of it on new cleanrooms for late 2028 and beyond. The share closed flat at 1,065.11 and trades 0.37% higher before the open — while the Nasdaq 100 futures are up 1.5%. On the morning after a record quarter, Micron is lagging the market. That is unusual for this stock. Over its last ten reports Micron moved on average 11.3% in the three sessions after the numbers — up 22.6% in December 2025, down 12.4% in March, up 9.2% in June — and never less than 3.1%. Not once did it finish flat.

If

Micron closes Thursday's session above 1,065.11.

Why

When a company beats this clearly and the share does not move, the good news was already in the price — Micron is up about 550% in a year. The new worry is supply: more factories mean more memory in 2028, and memory prices have always fallen when supply caught up with demand. Micron says prices are still rising, but more slowly.

Then

Our Print Record scores the reaction on the close of Monday 5 October: paid at 1,097.06 or higher, sold below 1,033.16, flat in between.

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TLTTLHIEF^TYX

What

The long-bond fund TLT fell 0.58% to 77.78, its lowest close in a year and 3.3% lower over five sessions. On Tuesday it traded at 77.93 at midday and closed back at 78.23; on Wednesday the break held at the close. The shorter funds lost less: TLH (10-20 years) -0.35% to 92.17, IEF (7-10 years) -0.16% to 89.31. The drop came on a day with soft inflation news: core PCE rose 0.2% in August against 0.3% expected. Long bonds fell anyway, a sign that the selling is about supply and global rates, not this month's inflation number.

If

TLT stays below 78 through Friday's jobs report.

Why

A close below a level that held for weeks turns a test into a break. Japan's rates are rising and European long bonds are weak, so US long bonds are being sold alongside them.

Then

The Global letter named 74 as the next level below. Friday's jobs report is the next test.

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