Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM) — Technical state

As of 2026-09-15 — re-computed nightly across the coverage universe. Closelook diary readings, not advice.

Widest analyst gap

13.9% off its high — yet the $578 consensus implies +40.2%.

The moving-average stack

vs 20-day-1.8%
vs 50-day-1.2%
vs 200-day+9.5%
52-week band13.9% off the high · +85.8% off the low
Streak2 consecutive down sessions
50-day crossprice crossed down through the 50-day 2 sessions ago
Stochastic%K 36.8 · %D 52.1

Analyst consensus (context)

Target 578 (+40.2% vs the baked price) · Buy · 18 buy / 7 hold / 0 sell. Third-party consensus, shown for context — not a Closelook view.

Continue: the TSM chart & overview · quality & forensics · the earnings record · the signal board

FAQ · from the current data · as of 2026-09-15

Quick answers

What is the current Closelook signal on TSM?

Widest analyst gap — 13.9% off its high — yet the $578 consensus implies +40.2%. As of 2026-09-15; the signal board re-computes across the coverage universe nightly. A research diary reading, not advice.

Is TSM above its 50-day and 200-day moving averages?

As of 2026-09-15, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing trades -1.2% below its 50-day and +9.5% above its 200-day average, with the 20-day -1.8% away.

How far is TSM from its 52-week high?

13.9% below the 52-week high and 85.8% above the 52-week low, as of 2026-09-15.

What is the analyst consensus on Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing?

Consensus target 578 (+40.2% vs the baked price), rating Buy, with 18 buy / 7 hold / 0 sell recommendations — third-party consensus data, shown for context, not a Closelook view.

Mentioned on Closelook

Where TSM appears in the diary — 21 pieces, newest first. Every link is our own writing.

Go deeper

Long reads

Where to Invest in the AI Chip Constraint ChainDossier · $29 · 3 Mar 202617× Trail P/E 15× Fwd P/E +47% Rev Growth TSMC TSM · $374 Constructive Constraint: 92% leading-edge, 75% advanced packaging 28× trailing (vs.
Who Owns the AI Chip Buildout?Dossier · $39 · 12 Feb 2026
AI Economy — Three Futures for 2030, and the One the Model Leaves OutReport · 14 Sept 2026
This company makes every AI chip that matters and 73% of the world’s outsourced chips — sales are up 53% in a month, and the stock is coiled in a triangle whose apex is this weekChart Pick · 11 Sept 2026
TSMC — The Toll at the Only BridgeReport · 13 Aug 2026How we hold it TSM is a constituent of the Rubin Build-Out 100 ; the print record carries its reaction history, and the stock page the live structure.
AI Bull Market — The 2026 Verification PhaseReport · 20 Mar 2026January 15 TSMC (TSM) — The Hub Utilization rates for 3nm/2nm chips.
Nvidia Ecosystem — Wave 1: The ‘Stacking’ PeakReport · 20 Feb 2026TSMC TSM 0.98 Correlation Tier I Classification Linear · 2026–2030 Role Monopoly Manufacturer Why Every Rubin (3nm) and Feynman (2nm) chip is a TSMC wafer.

101 and glossary

NVIDIA Investor's Timeline: Hopper to Blackwell to Rubin and Beyond101The investment question is not "is NVIDIA a good company?" — it's "is NVIDIA's stock a good risk-adjusted investment at this price?" Key Companies NVDA NVIDIA Architecture owner — Hopper/Blackwell/Rubin TSM TSMC Fabrication + CoWoS…
The Packaging Bottleneck: Advanced Packaging as the AI Chokepoint101Key Companies TSM TSMC CoWoS monopoly — packaging capacity owner BESI BE Semiconductor Hybrid bonding equipment leader ASX ASE Technology Largest OSAT provider IBDN Ibiden Advanced packaging substrates

Dailies

Fed day — relief before the decision: 10-year 4.96%, Brent under $107.63, chips reclaim $505, Nasdaq-100 above $708.69Midday 10 · 16 Sept 2026
Rates — the 10-year hits 5.01%: Dow −0.9%, Russell −1.2%, the AI sort pauses, Oracle and Adobe hold their linesMidday 10 · 15 Sept 2026
AI trade — the pacing call splits tech: chips −5%, software +4.5%, security +12–15%, 10-year hits 5%Midday 10 · 14 Sept 2026
Brent closes above $100 for the first time since July and the 10-year hits 4.86%: Wall Street falls a third day while Cloudflare +10%, Datadog +7% and Meta +7% catch the money the chip leaders gave backMorning 10 · 10 Sept 2026
The trade flips at midday: chips fade, software bounces — Meta +6%, Cloudflare +9%, Datadog +6% while oil holds $101 and the 10-year hits 4.85%Midday 10 · 9 Sept 2026
The AI Order Book, Read From TaiwanDaily Pulse · 17 Aug 2026
TSMC prints +45%, the rotation pays the whole chain — and the bond coil leaks into the refereeMidday 10 · 10 Aug 2026
Everyone is watching the software wreck. The line that matters is breaking in bonds.Midday 10 · 6 Aug 2026The logic majors confirm: ARM +4.0%, TSM +1.1%, AMD +1.0%, Broadcom +0.9%.