Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) — Technical state

Long reads

• Bitcoin and Gold — Cointegration as Regime, Not StateDossier · $29 · 28 Apr 2026BTC versus NDX (proxied by QQQ) tests the lead-lag thesis: when crypto-native sentiment leads institutional risk-on positioning, BTC moves first and NDX follows in a measurable lag window; when the lead breaks down, BTC trades on its own…
• Earnings — Post-Earnings Announcement DriftDossier · $29 · 27 Apr 2026The +32.80% T+3 CAR puts RBRK in the deepest corner of the long-quintile distribution; the drift continued to deliver +15.00% CAR through T+63 even as QQQ itself declined 6%.
• Calendar — The Funds’ New Year and the Midterms: a Fresh Start?Weekly Signal · 1 Nov 2026
• Long Bond — A Second Gap Higher, and Both Still OpenWeekly Signal · 25 Oct 2026Credo 147.29, a new low; the other three above their lows split Nasdaq 100 fund (QQQ) 704.54 704.47 Thursday, 704.40 Friday touched — closed 7 and 14 cents under S&P 500 fund (SPY) 768.50 / 779.09 759.97 Friday, −0.4% under the 50-day…
• Second-Tier Chips — Back at the July Low, Leg Two BeginsWeekly Signal · 18 Oct 2026
• The AI software company whose sales grew 93% while its stock fell by half: back within 7% of its record after breaking a two-month range — at 83 times next year's earningsChart Pick · 25 Sept 2026The pick against software (IGV), cloud software (CLOU) and the Nasdaq-100 (QQQ), one year each.
• Bitcoin — New Life for the Coins and the StocksWeekly Signal · 20 Sept 2026
• Cybersecurity — Sold on Price, Bought on FlowWeekly Signal · 13 Sept 20265 · The two funds against software and the index CIBR (First Trust Nasdaq Cybersecurity) and WCBR (WisdomTree Cybersecurity) one year, against the software fund IGV and the Nasdaq 100 fund QQQ, rebased to 100 on September 11, 2025.

101 and glossary

• Bollinger Coiling: When Volatility Compresses Before Expanding101Coils in the macro basket — particularly in SPY, QQQ, and TLT — are disproportionately informative.
• Cascade Tracker: The 5-Domino Model of Regime Breakdown101If pairs break out-of-order (say, TLT-SPY before QQQ-SPY), it signals something unusual about the stress source — rate-driven rather than risk-appetite-driven, for example.
• Cointegration: When the Rules of the Game Change101
• Money Temperature: Measuring Regime Intensity, Not Predicting Direction101Four pairs, each representing a structural axis of capital allocation: SPY/QQQ (risk appetite, with QQQ isolating the AI speculation premium), TLT/UUP (duration and dollar — the rate regime), GLD/BTC-USD (de-dollarization channels …
• Stack Flip: When Price Crosses the 200-Day Moving Average101Ignoring flips in major macro instruments (SPY, QQQ, TLT, GLD) means missing the moments when regimes visibly change.

Dailies

• Midterms — Dow Jumps 2.3% and Apple Hits a Record; Data-Center Power Stocks Sink Up to 15%Midday 10 · 4 Nov 2026SPY touched 768.63, above its line near 767.0, and is back 0.4% under it at 763.56; QQQ, at 689.63, is still 4.7% under its line near 723.9.
• AI Trade — Chips Bounce 3% Before AMD; Apple, Palantir and Shopify Slip After Their ReportsMidday 10 · 3 Nov 2026None of the three index funds is above its 50-day average: SPY, at 754.90, is 1.6% under its line near 767.2, QQQ, at 686.50, 5.2% under its line near 724.4, and the Dow fund DIA, at 516.56, is back 0.9% under its line near 521.4 after…
• Oil — Brent −6.5% on Iran Talks Lifts Stocks; Amazon +5%, Oracle −6% on a $20 Billion RaiseMidday 10 · 2 Nov 2026The other two are not: SPY, the S&P 500 fund, is at 761.13, 0.8% under its own near 767.5, and QQQ, the Nasdaq-100 fund, at 695.58, 4.1% under its line near 725.0.
• Overnight — Markets steady after Friday's chip rout: Nasdaq futures +0.8%, Kospi +2.2%, Bitcoin near 78,000Morning 10 · 2 Nov 2026After hours on Friday the S&P 500 fund SPY traded at 757.12 against a 755.72 close and the Nasdaq-100 fund QQQ at 692.69 against 690.49.
• Derivatives — Puts Closed Before Friday's FallDaily Pulse · 31 Oct 2026The chip fund SOXX fell 8.2 percent that day and ended the week 1.4 percent lower at 471.51; the Nasdaq 100 fund QQQ lost 2.0 percent to 690.49 and the S&P 500 fund SPY 0.6 percent.
• Sell-Off — Nasdaq −3%, Chips −8%, Bitcoin −4%, Gold −3%; Only Bonds, Oil and Defensives HoldMidday 10 · 30 Oct 2026Intel's 30.2% fall on a weak outlook takes the Philadelphia chip index down 8.3% and the Nasdaq-100 fund QQQ 3.7%, and the S&P 500, down 1.9% at 7,576, trades well under its 50-day average.
• Earnings Tape — Alphabet −13%, ServiceNow −27%, Microsoft's gain gone, Lilly +6%Midday 10 · 29 Oct 2026Underneath, the S&P 500 fund SPY slips 0.6% to just under its 50-day average and the Nasdaq-100 fund QQQ loses 1.8%, while the VIX stays near 16.9 and the Fed's hike odds for December sit at about 86% — a rotation out of tech, not a rush…
• Fed — rates on hold, two officials wanted a hike; Vertiv +15%, Flex +9%, Micron +4%Midday 10 · 28 Oct 2026The S&P 500 slipped only about 0.1% in the first quarter hour; SPY at 770.28 holds above its 50-day average of 767.53, while QQQ at 721.43 stays 0.5% under its own at 725.26.