Weekly Signal · · 8 min read
In this edition
One signal to define the week and shape the month. Three minutes, six questions. Every Sunday at 21:00 CET — scored the next.
8 November 2026 · stock and bond closes through Fri Nov 6.
0 · Last week, scored
Verdict: the first week of the new start was decisive — but in none of the three directions this Signal named. The tests for software and for health care and energy failed; the three lines that said "the fresh start has not started" were all crossed.
Last Sunday's signal was the calendar: the mutual funds' new year from 1 November and the midterm vote on Tuesday, two dates that might give the market a clean line to start again. The read named three directions — back into software, on to health care and energy, or not yet anywhere — and said the first three days would tell. They did. Software did not get back over its 50-day average, the Nasdaq 100 did not get back over its September low, and health care and energy did not rise while tech held. Instead the chip index fell 12.2% on Thursday alone, and the Nasdaq 100 closed the week under its July low.
Table as text
| Level set last Sunday | Line | This week | Scored |
|---|---|---|---|
| Software (IGV) back above its 50-day — direction one | 106.99 | 98.88, −5.2% | not met |
| Nasdaq 100 back above its September low — direction one | 28,938 | 26,990, −4.9% | not met |
| Health care and energy higher, tech flat — direction two | — | health care −0.04%, energy −12.0%, tech −8.2% | not met |
| Chip fund (SOXX) under 465 — "no floor yet" (155 on the fund's new share basis) | 155 | 136.53, −13.1% | crossed |
| Nasdaq 100 weekly close under its July low — "not started" | 27,192 | 26,990 | crossed |
| AI build-out index under its double-bottom line — "not started" | 1,703.80 | 1,485.88, −13.2% | crossed |
| Ten-year yield under 5% after the vote | 5.0% | 4.87% | held |
One part of the read held: the ten-year stayed under 5% through the vote and through a jobs report that showed 165,000 new payrolls against about 60,000 expected. The rest of it was wrong in the direction it expected, and right that the first days would decide.
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