Advanced Micro Devices Inc (AMD) — Quality & forensics

Long reads

• Where to Invest in the AI Chip Constraint ChainDossier · $29 · 3 Mar 2026The market is paying a massive premium for AI chip design (Nvidia, AMD) while underpricing the physical supply chain that makes those chips real.
• Agentic Infrastructure Software: The Orchestration LayerDossier · $39 · 24 Feb 2026
• Who Owns the AI Chip Buildout?Dossier · $39 · 12 Feb 2026Nvidia/AMD/Broadcom = AI chip architecture.
• This company makes every AI chip that matters and 73% of the world’s outsourced chips — sales are up 53% in a month, and the stock is coiled in a triangle whose apex is this weekChart Pick · 11 Sept 2026TSMC is the factory behind Nvidia, Apple, AMD, Broadcom and MediaTek: 73% of the pure-foundry market, more than nine-tenths of the leading edge, a 2-nanometre node in volume that no one else can sell at scale, and advanced packaging…
• Two and a half months of lower highs, then a second low that held above the first — and on Friday the oscillator turned.Chart Pick · 4 Sept 2026All ten of the fund’s largest holdings are constituents of the Rubin Build-Out 100, our index of companies monetising the physical scarcity of AI compute: Nvidia, Broadcom, AMD and Qualcomm in our S2 accelerator cohort, Marvell and Astera…
• Situational Awareness — Crushed While CorrectReport · 2 Aug 2026The fund evidently distinguished between first-wave names it considered finished (Nvidia, ASML, Broadcom, AMD, Oracle, the SMH complex — puts without meaningful offsetting calls) and constraint-chain names caught in first-wave wrappers…
• Memory Chips — Memory Is the New Compute · Closelook Heresy VIIIHeresy · 25 Jun 2026SK hynix’s SAM is narrower but still very large: premium HBM4E/HBM5 and custom HBM for NVIDIA, hyperscaler ASICs, AMD, and next-gen platforms — the highest-value layer, not low-end memory.
• US Equities — Don’t Buy U.S. Stocks · Closelook HeresyHeresy · 8 May 2026Intel — once the most valuable semiconductor company in the world — was overtaken by Nvidia, TSMC, AMD, and Broadcom inside a five-year window, then dropped below $100 billion in market cap while Nvidia crossed $3 trillion.

101 and glossary

• AI Barbell Strategy: Long Infrastructure, Short Disrupted Incumbents101TSMC fabricates chips for NVIDIA, AMD, Google, and Amazon.
• ChipletGlossaryAMD pioneered the approach commercially, and Intel and increasingly NVIDIA have adopted it for high-end products.
• Cloudflare as Agentic Toll Booth: The Infrastructure Tax on Every Agent101The Relative Strength Signal While NVIDIA, AMD, and semiconductor names corrected 15-25% in the Q1 2026 rotation, Cloudflare held firm and outperformed the Nasdaq.
• CoWoS (Chip-on-Wafer-on-Substrate)GlossaryTSMC has been aggressively expanding CoWoS capacity, but demand from NVIDIA, AMD, and Broadcom continues to outstrip supply.
• Foundry Economics: Why TSMC Captures the Scarcity Premium101It manufactures the vast majority of advanced-node chips for NVIDIA, AMD, Broadcom, Apple, and the entire AI ecosystem.
• FPGA (Field-Programmable Gate Array)GlossaryAMD (via Xilinx) and Intel (via Altera) are the principal suppliers.
• ROCmGlossaryAMD's open-source GPU compute platform; the principal alternative to CUDA, but lagging in ecosystem maturity.
• Seasonal WindowGlossaryWhy it matters for the AI trade In September 2026 the fund Situational Awareness was reported to have bought calls on AMD, Bloom Energy, CoreWeave, SK Hynix, SanDisk and a memory ETF in the first days of the month — the thesis Closelook…

Dailies

• Rates — the Fed hikes and the 10-year closes above 5%: the belly sold, the relief unwound, chips back under $505Morning 10 · 17 Sept 2026Chips, reclaimed and lost: semiconductor ETF +0.6% to $502.06 — $508.60 at midday, under $505 at the bell; design bought, AMD +1.6% to $512.50, Marvell +3.6%, TSMC +1.2%, Nvidia +0.8% to $213.90; equipment sold a third day, Applied…
• Fed day — relief before the decision: 10-year 4.96%, Brent under $107.63, chips reclaim $505, Nasdaq-100 above $708.69Midday 10 · 16 Sept 2026The semiconductor ETF is $508.60, up 2.0% and back above the $505 line it lost on Monday — AMD +4.2% to $525.62, Marvell +3.3%, Arm +2.8%, Nvidia +1.9% to $216.19, and the equipment names green (KLA +1.5%, Lam +0.8%) — while the memory…
• Rates — Fed day at a 5% 10-year: the hike is priced, the cycle is not; Yardeni cuts the S&P target to 7,900Morning 10 · 16 Sept 2026The AI sort paused and softened at the close: the semiconductor ETF +1.0% to $502.07, still under $505, with AMD +2.8%, Marvell +2.4%, Arm +1.7%, Nvidia +1.1% and the equipment names — Lam, Applied Materials, KLA — recovering from −1% to…
• AI trade — sellers of compute sold, buyers bought: chips −5.6%, software +5%, SoftBank +7% in TokyoMorning 10 · 15 Sept 2026The semiconductor ETF lost 5.6% to $497.40, through the $505 line we have written about since August and below Thursday’s $517.43; Nvidia −3.4%, AMD −4.4%, Micron −5.3%, SanDisk −5.0%.
• Rates — the 10-year hits 5.01%: Dow −0.9%, Russell −1.2%, the AI sort pauses, Oracle and Adobe hold their linesMidday 10 · 15 Sept 2026Inside chips the equipment names are still being sold — Lam −2.3%, Applied Materials −1.2%, KLA −0.9%, Broadcom −1.4% — while AMD +2.0%, Arm +2.7% and Marvell +2.0% bounce.
• AI Trade — Premium or Volume? The Labs Ask for a Slowdown, the Physical Layer Pays FirstDaily Pulse · 14 Sept 2026Press reports had Intel and AMD down more than 4% in extended trading, SanDisk 4.5%, Micron 3.9% — Friday’s bounce leaders and Friday’s non-bouncers sold together.
• AI trade — the labs ask for a slowdown: Kospi −3.3%, SoftBank −11%, Nasdaq futures −1.2%, oil back above $106Morning 10 · 14 Sept 2026Below it all, a second story we tease here and finish in line 11: Situational Awareness, the fund that fell from more than $45 billion to about $10 billion in July, has bought options on AMD, Bloom Energy, CoreWeave, SK Hynix, SanDisk and…
• AI trade — the pacing call splits tech: chips −5%, software +4.5%, security +12–15%, 10-year hits 5%Midday 10 · 14 Sept 2026The semiconductor ETF is down 5.2% at $499.81, through Thursday’s $517.43 and through the $505 line we have carried since August, with Astera −9.9%, Arm −8.9%, SK Hynix’s US line −7.3%, Lam −7.2%, Marvell −6.3%, SanDisk −6.3%, Micron…