Daily Pulse · · 10:00 CET · 7 min read · market · NVDA
In this edition
Pattern alerts
- 6857.T advantest-record-plus-25.3-since-june-22 BULLISH
- 285A.T storage-sector-minus-37.5-since-june-22 WARNING
- PTC schneider-cash-bid-205-ptc-plus-33.5 NEUTRAL
Nvidia closed at a record on Monday, and so did Advantest, the Japanese maker of the machines that test AI chips. It is tempting to read that as "AI hardware is back". Our numbers say something else.
We follow the AI trade through three indices — the Rubin Build-Out (126 hardware companies in 24 sectors), the Agentic Ecosystem (34 infrastructure-software companies) and the Agentic Winners 40 (the applications) — and every sector has its own equal-weight index. Read them side by side, and AI hardware is not one trade. It is two dozen of them, and most are still below where they stood in June.
Three indices, three different years
The three indices tell three stories depending on where you start counting. This year the hardware is far ahead. Since the June peak in the chip stocks, software has led. Over the last month, hardware and infrastructure software rose together while the applications slipped.
The three AI indices at Monday's close
Table as text
| Index | What it holds | Since 22 June | Last month | This year | Buying speeding up / slowing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rubin Build-Out | 126 hardware companies | −12.0% | +12.3% | +112.3% | 10 / 110 |
| Agentic Ecosystem | 34 infrastructure-software companies | +23.7% (record) | +12.9% | +77.5% | 23 / 9 |
| Agentic Winners 40 | 40 application companies | +28.8% | −3.6% | −5.8% | 33 / 4 |
Equal-weight indices; last month from the close of 4 September, this year from the close of 2 January. Last column: Directional Flow, our daily reading of whether the buying in each stock is speeding up or slowing down; the rest are flat. Source: Closelooknet index workers and Daily AI Board, closes of 5 October.
The last column matters most for the next few weeks. In the hardware index, 105 of 126 stocks are still rising, but the buying behind them is slowing — the pattern of a move that is getting older. In software and applications it is the other way round: most names are gaining speed from a lower level. Nvidia's record does not change that count. It is one name of 126.
C — free account
The free C account unlocks the full Daily Pulse — every section of this read.
One tap with Google or one email — no password, no card. You are signed in until you sign out, on this browser, from then on.
Join the Look — freeAlready joined on this browser? The full edition shows automatically — if it doesn't, sign in again here. Looking for the archive, portfolios and realtime? That is C+.
One more block on our desk — tomorrow's levels and what we're watching into the next session. Join the Look — it’s free.