Long Bonds — The Break Is Global: Why Earnings Growth Now Has to Outrun Rates

The long-bond fund TLT closed Monday at 78.62, down 0.88%, its fifth down session in a row and only 0.4% above its 52-week low. The 30-year Treasury yield closed at 5.561%, above Friday's 5.504%, which was already its highest close since 2004. On our chart this is a clear break, not a test of support, and it is not only an American story. Yields are rising in Tokyo and across Europe at the same time. That changes what works in stocks: when the rate used to value future profits keeps climbing, only companies whose earnings grow faster than their valuation shrinks can hold their price.

Three bond funds, one picture

The break is not confined to the longest bonds. The 10-20 year fund TLH and the 7-10 year fund IEF show the same state: below their 20-, 50- and 200-day averages and within half a percent of their 52-week lows.

Table as text

Fund	Maturities	vs 20-day	vs 50-day	vs 200-day	Off 52w high	Off 52w low	Below 50-day since
TLT	20+ years	−3.1%	−4.2%	−7.7%	−12.5%	+0.4%	59 sessions
TLH	10–20 years	−2.7%	−3.7%	−6.5%	−10.8%	+0.4%	58 sessions
IEF	7–10 years	−1.8%	−3.0%	−4.9%	−7.8%	+0.3%	62 sessions

Closelooknet technical state, computed from daily closes to 28 September 2026.

All three have been below their 50-day average for about three months. Their stochastic readings - a measure of where the price sits inside its recent range - are at extreme lows (TLT %K 8.7) and have just turned up. In a strong trend that signal is weak evidence: the earlier bull crosses in this downtrend failed. A turn in the indicator is not yet a turn in price.