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Microsoft +3.6%, Meta -3.7%, Oil -4%: Midday Read

Megacaps — Microsoft jumps 3.6%, Meta gives back 3.7%; oil sinks 4% on Iran-deal talk, the 30-year at 5.49%

Thursday's trade runs backwards at midday: Meta and Intel, bought yesterday, are sold; Arm, sold yesterday, is up 4%. Microsoft leads the Dow to +0.9% after a big Copilot upgrade. Oil funds fall 4% on reports of a US-Iran deal on Hormuz, the yen has its best day in weeks, and Costco is up 2.5% after its beat. The thirty-year yield climbs again to 5.49% while the five-year slips under 5%.

In this edition

MSFT META MAGS AAPL GOOGL AMZN NVDA TSLA

The Midday 10 Fri, Sep 25, 2026 ~60 seconds 12:30 ET

The index line looks calm: S&P 500 up 0.48%, Nasdaq up 0.53%, Dow up 0.88%. Underneath, the biggest companies are pulling in opposite directions. Microsoft is up 3.56% at $515.64 after reports of a large Copilot expansion - coding, autonomous agents, direct access to the Office apps. Meta is down 3.69% at $748.88, giving back most of Thursday's 4.5% jump after its Connect event. The Roundhill Magnificent Seven fund MAGS, the subject of this morning's Daily Pulse, is up 0.08%: seven big moves that nearly cancel out.

The second story is oil. The Brent fund BNO is down 4.35% and the WTI fund USO 3.67% after reports that US and Iranian negotiators are discussing a deal that would lift the naval blockade on tankers in the Strait of Hormuz. Cheaper oil is the one thing that could take pressure off yields - but not yet. The thirty-year Treasury is at 5.49%, up three basis points, while the five-year has slipped under 5%. The long end is still where the stress sits.

And a Friday reversal: the stocks sold on Thursday are bought today and vice versa. Arm is up 4.03%, Intel down 2.43%.

US intraday quotes at about 12:25 ET (16:25 UTC); moves are measured against Thursday's closes. Intraday prints are not closes. Tokyo and Hong Kong are today's closes; the DAX and FTSE are shown at the end of their sessions. Oil moves are the Brent and WTI funds (BNO, USO), not futures. Treasury yields are Yahoo's Cboe yield indices at about 12:10 ET. The Microsoft Copilot news, Costco's results, BlackBerry's guide, the Katayama comments and the US-Iran reports are taken from company releases, Bloomberg, Reuters, Investing.com and wire reports. Print-record lines are from the published cards on /signals/print-record/.

  1. Microsoft $515.64 (+3.56%), the biggest gain among the megacaps, after reports of a major Copilot expansion: coding tools, autonomous agents and direct access to Word, Excel and Outlook
  2. Meta $748.88 (-3.69%), handing back most of Thursday's 4.5% jump after Connect; the stock has stalled near $750 twice this week
  3. The Magnificent Seven fund MAGS $72.57 (+0.08%): Apple $339.57 (+1.09%), Alphabet $344.51 (+0.63%), Amazon $250.60 (+0.49%), Nvidia $224.79 (+0.09%), Tesla $373.17 (-1.26%)
  4. Oil falls: the Brent fund BNO $59.15 (-4.35%), the WTI fund USO $147.47 (-3.67%), energy stocks XLE $61.74 (-1.37%)
  5. Thirty-year 5.494% (Thursday 5.461%), ten-year 5.167% (5.162%), five-year 4.993% (5.025%); the long-bond fund TLT $79.24 (-0.23%)
  6. Chips bounce: SOXX 574.28 (+1.45%); Arm $318.70 (+4.03%), Broadcom $353.04 (+0.76%), SanDisk $1,772.68 (+1.09%), AMD flat at $629.42, Micron flat at $1,079.96; Intel $124.29 (-2.43%)
  7. Costco $919.13 (+2.53%) after its quarter: EPS $6.75 against $6.53 expected ($6.60 without a tariff-refund benefit), comparable sales +9.4%, membership fees +7.3% to $1.85 billion
  8. BlackBerry $8.20 (-6.13%), a day after its beat-and-raise: revenue $163.3 million against $142.5 million, QNX car software at a record $80 million, but a current-quarter guide of $143-154 million
  9. Bloom Energy $290.45 (+8.92%), Almonty Industries $13.82 (+11.41%), Akamai $116.55 (+5.56%, back above its 50-day average); CoreWeave $87.91 (-2.46%)
  10. Dollar 157.10 yen (-1.06%), the yen's best day in weeks; VIX 15.03 (-4.1%); bitcoin $84,000 (-0.45%); gold fund GLD $393.42 (+0.44%); high-yield fund HYG flat; Nikkei 66,364 (+1.30%), Hang Seng 24,510 (-1.30%), DAX 25,409 (+0.56%), FTSE 100 10,695 (+0.14%)

The ten lines

  1. 1

    UP Microsoft $515.64 (+3.56%), the biggest gain among the megacaps, after reports of a major Copilot expansion: coding tools, autonomous agents and direct access to Word, Excel and Outlook

    MSFT

    This is the software company the market sold on the fear that AI agents replace the seats it charges for. Today the market is paying for the opposite reading - that Microsoft owns the agent. Stifel upgraded the stock to Buy on Wednesday with a $575 target. The software fund IGV is still down 0.35%, so the bid is for Microsoft, not for software.

  2. 2

    DOWN Meta $748.88 (-3.69%), handing back most of Thursday's 4.5% jump after Connect; the stock has stalled near $750 twice this week

    META

    Reports describe it as profit-taking after a month in which Meta rose about a third on its Muse AI agent and the new glasses line-up. Nothing new came out of the company this morning. A 36% month is a lot to hold into a weekend with the thirty-year at 5.49%.

  3. Market X-Ray The market-structure toolbox — regime, dispersion and stress on one surface. Open the X-Ray →
  4. 3

    THREAD The Magnificent Seven fund MAGS $72.57 (+0.08%): Apple $339.57 (+1.09%), Alphabet $344.51 (+0.63%), Amazon $250.60 (+0.49%), Nvidia $224.79 (+0.09%), Tesla $373.17 (-1.26%)

    MAGSAAPLGOOGLAMZNNVDATSLA

    This morning's Daily Pulse asked why the megacaps keep rising with the ten-year yield. The midday answer is that they rise as a group only on some days; today two of them move 3.5% in opposite directions and the fund barely moves. For the argument that cash-rich balance sheets hold up when rates climb, a flat MAGS on a day the thirty-year rises again is still a pass.

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Today in line 11: why a flat Magnificent Seven fund hides two 3.5% moves, why Friday reverses Thursday stock by stock, why cheaper oil has not yet pulled the thirty-year down, and what the Costco and BlackBerry windows say about a market that pays the guide, not the beat.

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Further reading on Closelooknet

Ten lines on the US midday tape, not advice — an investment diary. Published every trading day at 12:30 ET. See The Morning 10 and the Daily Pulse.