ASML Holding N.V. New York Registry Shares (ASML) — the earnings record
As of the 2026-10-13 card — updated after each print. An investment research diary, not advice.
The record at a glance
Reactions across the covered prints span -4.6% to +3.2% — the beat column and the reaction column frequently disagree, which is the whole reason the record scores them separately. The street carries Reported 14 October before the European open: net sales €11.66B (a record), diluted EPS €12.93 — about $14.65 adjusted vs $12.13 on the card (Reuters); Q4 guided to €14.2–15.2B. Window from Wednesday’s close of 1,650.00: paid ≥ 1,699.50, sold < 1,600.50, scored Monday 19 October. into the next print.
Print by print
| Date | EPS | Revenue | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 26 | 2026-10-14 | ✓ beat | ✗ miss |
| Jul 26 | 2026-07-15 | ✓ beat | ✓ beat |
| Apr 26 | 2026-04-15 | ✓ beat | ✓ beat |
| Jan 26 | 2026-01-28 | ✗ miss | ✓ beat |
| Oct 25 | 2025-10-15 | ✓ beat | ✗ miss |
| Jul 25 | 2025-07-16 | ✓ beat | ✓ beat |
| Apr 25 | 2025-04-16 | ✓ beat | ✓ beat |
| Jan 25 | 2025-01-29 | ✗ miss | ✓ beat |
| Oct 24 | 2024-10-15 | ✓ beat | ✓ beat |
| Jul 24 | 2024-07-17 | ✓ beat | ✓ beat |
| Apr 24 | 2024-04-17 | ✓ beat | ✗ miss |
The per-print reaction chart, the load-bearing metric and the behavior read live on the full ASML print-record card — free registration.
FAQ · from the current data · as of 2026-10-13
Quick answers
How often does ASML Holding N.V. New York Registry Shares beat earnings estimates?
Across the last 11 covered prints (as of the 2026-10-13 card), ASML Holding N.V. New York Registry Shares beat EPS estimates 9 of 11 times and revenue estimates 8 of 11 times, with 6 double beats.
How does ASML stock react to earnings?
Measured close-of-print-day to the close three sessions later: 1 of the last 11 prints resolved up (beyond +3%), 7 flat, 3 down — reactions spanning -4.6% to +3.2%. Beat-or-miss and reaction are scored separately because they frequently disagree.
What was ASML's biggest earnings reaction?
-4.6% over the three sessions after the Jul 25 print (2025-07-16).
When does ASML Holding N.V. New York Registry Shares report earnings next?
2026-10-14 (Reported 14 October before the European open: net sales €11.66B (a record), diluted EPS €12.93 — about $14.65 adjusted vs $12.13 on the card (Reuters); Q4 guided to €14.2–15.2B. Window from Wednesday’s close of 1,650.00: paid ≥ 1,699.50, sold < 1,600.50, scored Monday 19 October.). The full print-record card — reaction chart, the load-bearing metric and the behavior read — updates after each print; registration is free. An investment research diary, not advice.
Mentioned on Closelooknet
Where ASML appears in the diary — 85 pieces, newest first. Every link is our own writing.
Go deeper
Long reads
- The Agentic Winners 25
ASML makes extreme ultraviolet lithography machines.
- Where to Invest in the AI Chip Constraint Chain
ASML's High-NA EUV (€350M/unit) enters volume deployment.
- Who Owns the AI Chip Buildout?
EUV embargo / yield ceilings / talent drain / overcapacity glut 🇪🇺 Europe Equipment gatekeeper (ASML 100% EUV).
- Two and a half months of lower highs, then a second low that held above the first — and on Friday the oscillator turned.
The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rose more than 3%; Nvidia is breaking out to new all-time highs; Applied Materials rose 5%, Marvell, Micron, ASML and Arm about 4%, AMD and Intel 3%, Astera Labs 11%.
- TSMC — The Toll at the Only Bridge
Sources TSMC, Q2 2026 earnings release and guidance, 16 July 2026 — investor.tsmc.com TSMC Q2 2026 earnings call transcript and coverage — 16 July 2026; CNBC on the Arizona commitment TSMC 2026 Technology Symposium disclosures…
- Situational Awareness — Crushed While Correct
The fund evidently distinguished between first-wave names it considered finished (Nvidia, ASML, Broadcom, AMD, Oracle, the SMH complex — puts without meaningful offsetting calls) and constraint-chain names caught in first-wave wrappers…
- Chip Testing — The Verification Tax
TSMC and Nvidia are the next parts of this series, and the genuinely contested cases — ASML, HBM as distinct from commodity DRAM, the power chain — are where the rubric will earn its keep.
- Sector Rotation — Three Rotations, One Week
The prints came in good to record-setting — ASML's capacity frame, TSMC's record quarter, Netflix's growth — and the tape sold every one of them.
101 and glossary
- AI Barbell Strategy: Long Infrastructure, Short Disrupted Incumbents
ASML's EUV machines are required by every advanced fab.
- AI Infrastructure Outlook 2026: Layers, Risks, and Positioning
ASML's High-NA EUV is ramping but won't impact supply meaningfully until late 2026.
- DXY (US Dollar Index)
For AI infrastructure investors, the DXY matters because many supply chain companies are non-US (TSMC in Taiwan, ASML in the Netherlands, Samsung in South Korea) — a strong dollar compresses their valuations when converted to USD terms.
- Economic Moat
In AI investing, Closelooknet distinguishes between physics-based moats (ASML's EUV monopoly, TSMC's fabrication lead) and software moats (which agentic AI may erode).
- EUV (Extreme Ultraviolet Lithography)
ASML is the sole supplier of EUV machines.
- Lithography
The chip-manufacturing step that uses light to pattern circuits onto silicon; ASML's EUV monopoly defines the leading edge.
- Non-US Tech: The Widest Valuation Gap in a Decade
The standard explanation — US companies deserve premiums for growth and innovation — ignores that many of the most critical AI supply chain companies are non-US: ASML (Netherlands), TSMC (Taiwan), SK Hynix (Korea), BESI (Netherlands)…
- Photolithography
The leading edge requires extreme ultraviolet (EUV) light, which is the source of ASML's strategic position.
Dailies
- Big Tech Week — Brazil ETF −15% on Lula's win, Musk calls a neocloud die-off, Kospi −1.5%; verdicts tonight
Watch the European semi open — ASML and ASM International — for which side of the Pacific Europe follows, and whether SOXX can hold Friday's stabilisation at the US open.
- Chips — the washout hits 7%, Asia refuses to follow, and oil funds close at 52-week highs
The chip ETFs fell six to seven percent — SOXX −6.8%, SMH −6.0% — with the equipment and optics names worst: Lam Research −11.8%, Coherent −12.5%, Lumentum −11.5%, Fabrinet −10.8%, Applied Materials −8.2%, ASML −6.9%.
- Asia — sea of red: Kospi −4%, SK Hynix −6.5%, Taiwan and Hong Kong follow after a sold earnings night
Watch the European semi open (ASML, ASM International) for the hand-off, and the US memory names (Micron, the DRAM basket that rose 3% Wednesday) at the open.
- Memory — Seoul Sells the Beat
Tokyo lost 2.7%, Hong Kong 3.1%, and Europe's chip-equipment flagship ASML trades 3.3% lower.
- Big Tech Earnings — Seoul buys back the chip sell-off as Tesla, Meta, IBM, SAP and Lam Research report tonight
three of the last four earnings tests in the complex have scored flat (ASML, now TSMC) or been sold; when record numbers stop earning gains, the burden of proof has shifted from the bears to the bulls
- Earnings — Records No Longer Get Paid
The three companies whose reports are the AI build-out's actual revenue — Micron, ASML, TSMC — printed record quarters within three weeks, and all three scored flat: −0.1%, −0.2%, +0.7%.
- Chips — one day of bounce, then Asia sells it: Kospi −4.3%, SK Hynix −5.3%, Nasdaq futures lower
TSMC — the window closes tonight, 0.5% under its entry; ASML scored flat Monday
- Chips — the open follows Seoul, then turns: chip index from −2.4% to +0.7%; small caps +1.6%
Lam Research is down 2.4% at 265.54 — it touched −4.4% after the open — a day before its results; KLA −2.1% to 162.84, Applied Materials −1.8% to 405.85, ASML's US shares −0.4% to 1,641.33.
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