Closelook@Charts
Palantir — The Chart Behind the Record Close
The long read on Palantir: the handover from AI capex to opex, a 2025 Rule-of-40 score of 103, the rising channel since 2023 whose lower line caught the 25 June low, the double bottom with a higher low, the 4 August breakout gap, the channel from the June low and the record close of 209.05. Where the desk stands, and what would change the read.
Chapters
Transcript
0:00 Palantir closed at a record on 9 October: 209.05. This is the chart behind it.
0:04 Closelook@Charts, the long read: Palantir in two and a half minutes.
0:10 Palantir is part of the handover in the AI trade — from building AI to running it: from capex to opex.
0:15 In 2025 it was one of the strongest software names: revenue up 56%, free cash flow 47% of revenue.
0:20 Growth plus margin gives a Rule-of-40 score of 103 — more than twice the bar.
0:25 This year growth sped up again: revenue rose 93% in the quarter to 30 June.
0:30 Zoom out to 2023. On a log chart, Palantir has climbed inside one rising channel.
0:35 The desk's lower line runs along the lows of May 2023 at 7.28 and August 2024 at 21.23.
0:40 In 2026 the stock went sideways for months — and stopped on 25 June at 106, just above 100 dollars, on the same line.
0:44 The upper line runs through the August 2025 high.
0:49 The lower line rises about 136% a year. While the price stays above it, the long channel holds.
0:58 Now the past twelve months, day by day.
1:01 From the December high, every rally stopped at one falling line — the one the desk drew.
1:06 The low came on 25 June at 107.27. The retest on 30 July held higher, at 122.26: a double bottom with a higher low.
1:11 On 4 August, the day after its results, Palantir gapped from 126 to 145 — above the falling line — and closed at 162.66, up 29%.
1:17 Since the June low it has climbed inside a rising channel — the desk drew it from the low.
1:23 Up 95% in 15 weeks.
1:29 Overhead sat last winter's highs: 200 in December, 208 in November.
1:35 On 9 October it closed at 209.05, above both — the highest since Palantir listed.
1:40 The desk added Palantir on 28 and 29 May, before the low: AI Buildout, Hypergrowth and Derivatives.
1:52 A strategic holding, held and not traded: 9.4% of our wikifolio Core and Conviction, 2.1% of AI Cycle 2030.
1:59 The other two can't hold it: Global Generation is ETFs only, The Compound is growth without tech.
2:06 What would change the read? Above 208, record territory. Back below 200, last year's range again.
2:11 The long channel's lower line now runs near 142. Below it, the trend since 2023 breaks.
2:16 Next test: results on 2 November. Palantir beat profit forecasts in all of its last 10 reports.
2:20 The full chart, the drawings and the record: closelook.net/indices/stock/pltr
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Research diary, not investment advice. Figures as stated in the video, to the date shown.