Nvidia — Hopper, Blackwell, Now Rubin

0:00 Nvidia closed at a record on 6 October: 239. By Friday it was 4% lower.

0:09 Closelook@Charts, the long read: Nvidia.

0:15 In its last fiscal year, to January, revenue grew 65%, and 45% of it became free cash flow.

0:24 And growth sped up: in the quarter to 31 July, revenue more than doubled, up 106%.

0:32 Zoom out to five years. In 2022, Nvidia lost two thirds of its value; the low came in October, near 11 dollars.

0:41 That September, its Hopper chip had gone into full production. A year later, the stock had more than tripled.

0:48 2024 was the Blackwell year: unveiled in March, shipping by the end of the year. The stock rose 171%.

0:58 The steep line from the 2022 low held until 27 February 2025, the day after Blackwell’s first big quarter. Then it broke.

1:08 A wider channel took over. Its lower line caught the lows of April 2025 and July 2026.

1:16 In January, Vera Rubin went into full production. The desk’s open question: does Rubin move it up again?

1:24 Now the past twelve months, day by day.

1:27 From the October 2025 high, every rally stopped at one falling line, until it broke on 14 April.

1:35 Ten days later it was back above its old record, at 207.

1:41 A summer dip took it to 190 on 29 July, right onto the wide channel’s lower line.

1:48 On 6 October it closed at a new record, 239. By Friday it was at 229.

1:57 The desk added Nvidia on 29 June, during the dip, and again on 2 October.

2:04 It sits in our wikifolio Core and Conviction at 9.6%, and in AI Cycle 2030 at 2.2%.

2:14 The other two can’t hold it: Global Generation is ETFs only, The Compound is growth without tech.

2:21 What would change the read? Above 239, record territory again.

2:27 Below the wide channel’s lower line, now near 211, the channel would break.

2:33 Next test: results on 18 November. Nvidia beat profit forecasts in all of its last 10 reports, and the shares fell after 6 of them.

2:44 The full chart, the drawings and the record: closelook.net/indices/stock/nvda