Nikkei Near 70,000, Euro at 17-Month Low: Morning 10
Asia — Nikkei back near 70,000, Taiwan +2.4%; euro at a 17-month low, US futures slightly lower
Friday's weak jobs report took a Fed rate hike off the table for now, and Asia bought the chip makers: Tokyo Electron +5.0%, Advantest +3.6%, TSMC +2.6%. The dollar is firm, the euro fell to 1.1161 at its low on reports of an early Spanish election, and US futures are down about 0.1% before the services survey at 16:00 CEST.
In this edition
The Morning 10 Mon, Oct 5, 2026 ~90 seconds 08:00 CET
The ten points
Friday's jobs report was weak — only 29,000 new jobs in September — and the market read it as one less reason for the Fed to raise rates again. US stocks closed the week higher: the S&P 500 fund SPY +0.74%, the Nasdaq-100 fund QQQ +1.02%, small caps +0.90%. Chips led again, with the semiconductor fund SMH up 2.1%.
Asia picked up where Wall Street left off. Japan's Nikkei rose 2.0% to 69,707 after crossing 70,000 in the morning for the first time in three months, and Taiwan gained 2.4%. Chip names led both markets. Korea and mainland China were closed for holidays.
The other move of the night is in currencies. The dollar is firm and the euro fell as low as 1.1161, its weakest level since May 2025, on reports that Spain is preparing for an early election. US futures are slightly lower, about 0.1%, ahead of the ISM services survey.
- Services survey at 16:00 CEST — ISM services expected at 55.1 after 55.4; Fed minutes on Wednesday
- Japan — Nikkei +2.0% to 69,707, above 70,000 in the morning; Tokyo Electron +5.0%, Advantest +3.6%, SoftBank +2.3%
- Taiwan +2.4% to 49,643 — TSMC +2.6% to NT$2,565, Hon Hai +1.2%
- The rest of Asia is quiet — Korea and mainland China closed, Hong Kong flat, Australia flat
- Euro — down 0.6% to 1.1189, low of 1.1161, the weakest since May 2025; Spain early-election reports
- Dollar firm — dollar index +0.4% to 102.35, yen at 158.05
- US futures mildly lower — S&P 500 −0.1%, Nasdaq-100 flat, Dow and Russell 2000 −0.2% after Friday's gains
- Print Record: Micron and Jabil graded at today's close — Micron +0.9% (no move), Jabil +6.1% (bought)
- Chips over software again — SMH +2.1% on Friday, software fund IGV +0.2%
- Oil −1.3% to $89.92, gold flat at $4,167, bitcoin −1.2% to $85,488
-
Services survey at 16:00 CEST — ISM services expected at 55.1 after 55.4; Fed minutes on Wednesday
CalendarTLTSPY
- What
- The ISM services index for September is today's only major US release. Economists expect 55.1, a touch below August's 55.4 — anything above 50 means the sector is growing. The parts to read are new orders, hiring and prices paid. On Wednesday the Fed publishes the minutes of its September meeting; US consumer prices follow a week later, on 14 October. The 10-year Treasury yield ended Friday at 5.28%, higher than Thursday's 5.24% even after the weak jobs number.
- If
- the services index comes in hot, especially the prices-paid part
- Why
- the market spent Friday pricing out another Fed hike on the soft payrolls; a strong services reading would bring that debate back
- Then
- watch the 10-year yield against Friday's 5.28% — a move back toward 5.30% would weigh on everything outside the AI group
-
Japan — Nikkei +2.0% to 69,707, above 70,000 in the morning; Tokyo Electron +5.0%, Advantest +3.6%, SoftBank +2.3%
Context8035.T6857.T9984.T
- What
- The Nikkei 225 crossed 70,000 in morning trade for the first time in three months and was up 2.0% at 69,707 in the afternoon. The gain was carried by the chip and AI names: Tokyo Electron rose 5.0% to ¥12,700, Advantest 3.6% to ¥40,020, SoftBank Group 2.3%. The broader Topix lagged, up about 1.2% at the midday break; Sony slipped 0.6%.
- If
- the Nikkei closes the day above 70,000
- Why
- a close above the level would confirm what the morning showed — the AI trade is back in Tokyo after Thursday's 1% pullback
- Then
- the gap between the Nikkei and the Topix shows how narrow the move is: when a handful of chip names carry the index, the rest of the market is not following
- ETF Dispersion Which themes move together and which have decoupled — dispersion across the ETF complex, nightly. See the dispersion →
-
Taiwan +2.4% to 49,643 — TSMC +2.6% to NT$2,565, Hon Hai +1.2%
ContextTSM2330.TWEWTSMH
- What
- Taiwan's main index rose 2.4% to 49,643. TSMC gained 2.6% to NT$2,565 and Hon Hai, the Apple and AI-server assembler, 1.2%. It follows Friday's 2.1% rise in the US semiconductor fund SMH, which closed at 630.60.
- If
- TSMC's September sales, due around 10 October, confirm the pace of the summer
- Why
- TSMC's monthly sales are the earliest hard number on AI chip demand each month — the quarterly report follows on 15 October
- Then
- our Taiwan AI page tracks the island's chip chain against the US names; a strong sales number would extend Monday's move
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