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Jobs Day, Nike −8.7% After Hours: Morning 10

Jobs day — futures +0.3% before payrolls; Nike −8.7% after hours, Accenture holds +15.8%

Thursday ended better than it looked at midday: the S&P 500 closed up 0.18% and the equal-weight fund beat it, up 0.47%. The comeback names held their gains — Accenture +15.8%, Synopsys +12.8%, Fair Isaac +11.7%. Nike missed on sales and slid 8.7% after hours. September payrolls come at 14:30 CEST, about 90,000 expected.

In this edition

TLT SPY RSP QQQ IWM IGV SMH NKE

The Morning 10 Fri, Oct 2, 2026 ~90 seconds 08:00 CET

The ten points

Thursday's red midday did not last. By the close all three US indices had turned up: the S&P 500 fund SPY +0.18%, the Nasdaq-100 fund QQQ +0.31%, the Dow fund DIA flat. More important, the average stock did better than the index: the equal-weight S&P 500 fund RSP rose 0.47% and small caps 0.41%. After a September in which three in four S&P 500 stocks fell, that is one good day for breadth, not yet a trend.

The big movers held. Accenture closed up 15.8%, Synopsys 12.8%, Fair Isaac 11.7%, Coherent 10.9% — the companies the market had filed under AI losers are the ones it bought. Nike went the other way after the close: sales missed, and the stock fell 8.7% in after-hours trading.

Today is jobs day. US futures are up about 0.3% before the September payrolls report at 14:30 CEST; Tokyo gave back 1% after Thursday's 3.3% jump, and Hong Kong fell 2.6% on its return from the national holiday.

  1. Payrolls at 14:30 CEST — about 90,000 jobs expected after 162,000 in August, unemployment 4.1%
  2. Thursday's close beat its midday: S&P 500 fund +0.18%, Nasdaq-100 fund +0.31%, equal-weight RSP +0.47%, small caps +0.41%
  3. Nike −8.7% after hours — sales $11.21 billion missed, earnings beat again
  4. The comeback names held: Accenture +15.8%, Synopsys +12.8%, Fair Isaac +11.7%, Coherent +10.9%, Cadence +6.2%
  5. Print Record: Micron closed at 1,097.39 (+3.0%) and Jabil at 299.79 (+4.5%) — both above their paid lines after day one
  6. Quarterly reset complete: Euro-AI 50 back to 2% per name at Thursday's close; Rubin equal weight +2.4% on the day
  7. Asia mixed: Nikkei −1.0% after +3.3%, Tokyo Electron −4.3%, SoftBank −5.9%, Advantest +2.9%; Taiwan +1.1%; Hong Kong −2.6%
  8. Europe closed weak on Thursday: CAC 40 −1.6%, DAX −1.0%, LVMH −2.7%; Capgemini +7.4% on Accenture
  9. Oil steady, gold up: WTI $92.45 (−0.5%), Brent $102.05; gold $4,217 (+0.4%); bitcoin $85,888 (+1.2%); dollar index 101.96
  10. The disrupted come back: Microsoft −22.9% in the first half, +37.5% since; Accenture −53.6%, then +47.4%; software fund IGV −14.3%, then +17.5%

  1. Payrolls at 14:30 CEST — about 90,000 jobs expected after 162,000 in August, unemployment 4.1%

    Calendar

    TLTSPYRSP

    What
    The September jobs report is the week's main number. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg expect about 90,000 new jobs, down from 162,000 in August, with the unemployment rate steady at 4.1% and hourly wages up about 0.3% on the month. Some forecasters see unemployment ticking up to 4.2%. Bond yields go into the report a little lower: the 10-year Treasury yield is at 5.24% (5.29% on Wednesday), the 30-year at 5.60%. The long-bond fund TLT closed Thursday at 77.71 — still below the 78 level it broke on Wednesday.
    If
    payrolls come in well below 90,000 or unemployment rises to 4.2%
    Why
    a softer labour market would ease the pressure on long-term yields, which have been the main weight on stocks outside the AI group
    Then
    watch whether TLT gets back above 78 and whether the equal-weight RSP keeps outpacing the S&P 500 — a strong number would do the opposite

    Open the detail →

  2. Thursday's close beat its midday: S&P 500 fund +0.18%, Nasdaq-100 fund +0.31%, equal-weight RSP +0.47%, small caps +0.41%

    Context

    SPYQQQRSPIWMIGVSMH

    What
    At midday all three indices were lower and the average stock was weak. The last hours reversed that: SPY closed at 763.99, QQQ at 742.03, DIA flat at 508.62. Software (IGV +1.64%) and chips (SMH +1.45%) led again, and this time the rest of the market came along: the equal-weight fund RSP outpaced the S&P 500.
    If
    the equal-weight fund keeps beating the cap-weighted index into next week
    Why
    September's problem was not the index level but how few stocks carried it — a broader rally is the healthier one
    Then
    the gap between RSP and SPY is the cleanest breadth read; Thursday it moved in the right direction for the first time in days

    Open the detail →

  3. Market X-Ray The market-structure toolbox — regime, dispersion and stress on one surface. Open the X-Ray →

  4. Nike −8.7% after hours — sales $11.21 billion missed, earnings beat again

    Context

    NKE

    What
    First-quarter revenue fell 4% to $11.21 billion, short of the roughly $11.34 billion expected; earnings of $0.48 a share beat the $0.44 estimate. Gross margin rose 0.6 points to 42.8% on lower warehousing costs. Nike's own stores and app fell 8%, Converse 28%, and sales dropped in Greater China and Europe while North America grew. Nike still expects revenue for the full fiscal year to fall by a high single-digit percentage. The stock closed at 35.15 (−0.7%) and traded at 32.09 after hours, down 8.7% and below its 52-week low of 35.22.
    If
    Nike opens near the after-hours price
    Why
    on our Print Record card Nike has now beaten the earnings estimate eleven times in eleven reports, and six of the previous ten were sold anyway
    Then
    the card's window opens from Friday's close and is graded three sessions later, on Wednesday

    Open the detail →

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