The tailwind is gone — KOSPI gives back 5.2%, the yen gets ¥8tn of help, Palantir referees tonight
The Morning 10 Mon, Aug 3, 2026 ~90 seconds 08:00 CET
Korea gave back a slice of Friday's record session, the yen intervention is confirmed and large, oil broke five percent — and US futures firmed anyway into ISM day and Palantir's evening print.
- Korea overnight — the giveback test
- Yen — joint intervention confirmed
- Oil — a five-percent break on de-escalation
- US futures — the shelf test without the tailwind
- Semis vs. software — the split beneath the tape
- Scanner — semi support confluence (ASML, AMKR, ASM)
- Closelook Rubin 100 vs. HALO 100
- ISM Manufacturing PMI & sub-indices (14:00 UTC today)
- Palantir prints tonight — the reversal-cluster referee
- Jurrien Timmer — Fidelity
- Korea overnight — the giveback test Context
- What
- Seoul gave back part of Friday's record session: the KOSPI closed down 5.2% at 6,252, with Samsung off 8.4% and SK Hynix down 7.6% after both had risen a quarter or more on Friday.
- If
- The KOSPI holds the low-6,200s and the two chip names stabilise into Tuesday.
- Why
- A partial giveback after a record short-covering day is normal digestion; a full unwind would say Friday was a bull trap, not a base.
- Then
- Read it against US semis today — the floor SOXX reclaimed near 505 last week is the level that has to hold on this side of the Pacific.
- Yen — joint intervention confirmed Context
- What
- Washington and Tokyo confirmed they intervened jointly last week — reported at more than 8 trillion yen from Japan plus US Treasury yen-buying via the New York Fed — and the dollar fell from 40-year highs near 164 to the mid-155s, trading around 156.4 by Tokyo afternoon.
- If
- USDJPY keeps sliding as both governments warn they are ready to step in again.
- Why
- A forcibly stronger yen raises the cost of the carry funding beneath global risk assets — the question of what finances the AI trade, expressed in FX.
- Then
- The Nikkei already paid part of the bill, closing down 1.1% on exporter weakness; watch whether US rates and gold pick up the theme today.
- Oil — a five-percent break on de-escalation Context
- What
- Crude broke hard overnight: WTI fell 4.9% to $79.76 and Brent lost 5% to $83.50 after Washington signalled it would refrain from striking Iran.
- If
- The move holds through this afternoon's ISM prices read.
- Why
- A five-percent one-day fall in oil is a direct disinflation impulse, arriving exactly as the market debates whether hot input prices block the rate path.
- Then
- Energy-sector leadership and the ISM Prices Paid sub-index become the same trade today.
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