The tailwind is gone — KOSPI gives back 5.2%, the yen gets ¥8tn of help, Palantir referees tonight

The Morning 10 Mon, Aug 3, 2026 ~90 seconds 08:00 CET

Korea gave back a slice of Friday's record session, the yen intervention is confirmed and large, oil broke five percent — and US futures firmed anyway into ISM day and Palantir's evening print.

  1. Korea overnight — the giveback test
  2. Yen — joint intervention confirmed
  3. Oil — a five-percent break on de-escalation
  4. US futures — the shelf test without the tailwind
  5. Semis vs. software — the split beneath the tape
  6. Scanner — semi support confluence (ASML, AMKR, ASM)
  7. Closelook Rubin 100 vs. HALO 100
  8. ISM Manufacturing PMI & sub-indices (14:00 UTC today)
  9. Palantir prints tonight — the reversal-cluster referee
  10. Jurrien Timmer — Fidelity
  1. Korea overnight — the giveback test Context
    What
    Seoul gave back part of Friday's record session: the KOSPI closed down 5.2% at 6,252, with Samsung off 8.4% and SK Hynix down 7.6% after both had risen a quarter or more on Friday.
    If
    The KOSPI holds the low-6,200s and the two chip names stabilise into Tuesday.
    Why
    A partial giveback after a record short-covering day is normal digestion; a full unwind would say Friday was a bull trap, not a base.
    Then
    Read it against US semis today — the floor SOXX reclaimed near 505 last week is the level that has to hold on this side of the Pacific.
  2. Yen — joint intervention confirmed Context
    What
    Washington and Tokyo confirmed they intervened jointly last week — reported at more than 8 trillion yen from Japan plus US Treasury yen-buying via the New York Fed — and the dollar fell from 40-year highs near 164 to the mid-155s, trading around 156.4 by Tokyo afternoon.
    If
    USDJPY keeps sliding as both governments warn they are ready to step in again.
    Why
    A forcibly stronger yen raises the cost of the carry funding beneath global risk assets — the question of what finances the AI trade, expressed in FX.
    Then
    The Nikkei already paid part of the bill, closing down 1.1% on exporter weakness; watch whether US rates and gold pick up the theme today.
  3. Oil — a five-percent break on de-escalation Context
    What
    Crude broke hard overnight: WTI fell 4.9% to $79.76 and Brent lost 5% to $83.50 after Washington signalled it would refrain from striking Iran.
    If
    The move holds through this afternoon's ISM prices read.
    Why
    A five-percent one-day fall in oil is a direct disinflation impulse, arriving exactly as the market debates whether hot input prices block the rate path.
    Then
    Energy-sector leadership and the ISM Prices Paid sub-index become the same trade today.

C — free account

The free C account unlocks points 4 through 10 — the full morning read.

One tap with Google or one email — no password, no card. You are signed in until you sign out, on this browser, from then on.

Join the Look — free

Already joined on this browser? The full edition shows automatically — if it doesn't, sign in again here. Looking for the archive, portfolios and realtime? That is C+.

C · point 11 · members

Today in point 11: which two confirmation tests the overnight already graded, why a giveback that keeps two-thirds of a record day is digestion and not verdict, what a tripwire that fires by policy instead of price changes for the carry math, why Friday's temperature exit count is broken rather than vindicated — and what the book does with a referee print it refuses to front-run.

The privileged, actionable read — what we do, and at which level — is in point 11, for members only.

Join the Look — it’s free

Free members account · one click · the ten points stay free, always.

Token Split Pulse Chinese versus US model usage, measured in tokens — the demand side of the AI race, daily. See the split →

A daily overview, not advice — an investment diary. Published every trading morning at 08:00 CET. See the Daily Pulse and today’s check-in.