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Midday: Yields Fall, Chips +3%, the Lines Retaken

Day after the hike — yields fall and the lines are retaken: 10-year 4.95%, chips +3% over $505, S&P ETF above $757.83

The day after the Federal Reserve's first hike since 2023, the bond market is buying what it sold on Wednesday. The 10-year Treasury yield is 4.947%, six basis points under its 5.006% close and back below 5%; the 5-year 4.797%, the 30-year 5.296% — the whole curve six basis points lower, the belly included. The Wall Street Journal's headline is that yields are falling because the Fed regained trust; Reuters has the rate-options market signalling it can absorb higher yields. Equities are trading the same reading: the S&P 500 ETF $762.12, +1.1%, back above Thursday's $757.83 after two closes under it; the Nasdaq-100 fund $716.33, +1.6%, above $708.69; the semiconductor ETF $518.02, +3.2%, above $505 for the second midday in a row — AMD +6.4%, Micron +5.5%, Broadcom +2.9%, Nvidia +2.3%, the memory ETF +4.4% to $57.63, a whisker under $58. The software ETF +0.9%, the Magnificent Seven fund $70.56 above 69.5, the equal-weight S&P +0.6%, the Russell +1.2%, the VIX 15.7. Gold +2.1% with the gold ETF at $400, oil −2.0% with Brent at $103.68, under $107.63 a third day. Oracle +5.5% to $151.57 is back above the $148.35 line it was sold under; Adobe is flat at $250, still under its $256.29 paid line. Line 11 is about whether a relief that retakes every line at noon is a verdict or a position, what yesterday's unwind taught about that, and why the close, the Bank of Japan tonight and tomorrow's quarterly expiry decide it.

In this edition

TLT SHY IEF SPY QQQ SOXX SMH MAGS

The Midday 10 Thu, Sep 17, 2026 ~60 seconds 12:30 ET

The day after the hike, the bond market is buying back what it sold into the statement. The 10-year Treasury yield is 4.947% at midday, six basis points under Wednesday's 5.006% close and back below the 5% line it crossed for the first time this cycle last night; the 5-year is 4.797%, down from 4.859%, and the 30-year 5.296%. The whole curve is lower by the same six basis points, which is a different message from Wednesday's bear flattener: yesterday the belly sold and the long end was bought, the market pricing more hikes and believing they work; today everything is bought, the market saying the price it reached was enough. The Wall Street Journal's line is that yields are falling because the Fed regained trust; Reuters has the rate-options market signalling it can absorb higher yields. Both are the same reading from different desks — a hike the market believes lowers the term premium it demands.

Equities are trading that reading in full. The S&P 500 ETF is $762.12, up 1.1%, back above Thursday's $757.83 after Tuesday's close of $757.39 and Wednesday's of $754.05 put it under the line twice; the Nasdaq-100 fund is $716.33, up 1.6%, above $708.69; the semiconductor ETF is $518.02, up 3.2%, above $505 for the second midday in a row and now 2.5% from its 50-day average near $531. The chip bid is the design side again, wider than yesterday: AMD +6.4% to $545.38, Micron +5.5% to $977.94 with the memory ETF +4.4% to $57.63, a whisker under the $58 line it lost on Monday, Broadcom +2.9%, Nvidia +2.3% to $218.74, TSMC +2.1%. The software ETF is +0.9% at $105.93 — the buyers of compute recovering less than the sellers, because the discount rate moved six basis points, not sixty. The Magnificent Seven fund is $70.56, back above 69.5; the equal-weight S&P +0.6%, the Dow +0.6%, the Russell 2000 +1.2%; the VIX 15.7, down 11%.

The prices around the tape agree. Gold is +2.1%, the gold ETF at $400.13, the hedge bought back after two days of selling on the hike; the dollar index 100.24, flat; Brent $103.68, down 2.0%, under Thursday's $107.63 for a third session and heading for the $100 handle the wires are already writing about. The yen is 155.87 into the Bank of Japan's decision overnight, and the Bank of England held this morning. In the print record, Oracle is +5.5% to $151.57, back above the $148.35 line it was sold under on Tuesday; Adobe is flat at $250.19, still under the $256.29 line it was paid above. We wrote yesterday at this hour that a relief tape before the decision was a position, not a verdict, and the close proved it — every line lost by four o'clock. Today's relief is larger and comes after the event rather than before it, which changes the odds but not the rule: a line is a close, the close is at 20:00 UTC, and tomorrow is a quarterly expiry.

US midday, intraday quotes (delayed, ~11:56 ET); Europe near its close, Asia closed; oil, gold, rates and currencies live. The Bank of England held rates this morning; the Bank of Japan decides overnight into Friday. Wednesday's closes are the reference for every move.

  1. Rates, the belly bought back: 10-year 4.947% (−6 bp, back under 5.00% after the first close above it), 5-year 4.797% (−6 bp), 30-year 5.296% (−5 bp) — a parallel move lower, not yesterday's flattener; WSJ: 'Treasury yields fall as Fed regains trust'; Reuters: 'rate options signal market can absorb higher yields'
  2. ETF board, the lines retaken: SPY +1.1% to $762.12 above $757.83; QQQ +1.6% to $716.33 above $708.69; SOXX +3.2% to $518.02 above $505; MAGS $70.56 above 69.5; DRAM +4.4% to $57.63 under $58; IGV +0.9%; RSP +0.6%, DIA +0.6%, IWM +1.2%; VIX 15.7 (−11%)
  3. Chips, the design side wider: AMD +6.4% to $545.38, Micron +5.5% to $977.94, Broadcom +2.9% to $349.39, Nvidia +2.3% to $218.74, TSMC +2.1% to $425.93; memory ETF +4.4% to $57.63; optics pause — Lumentum −0.4% at $916, Coherent +1.2%
  4. Software recovers less than it fell: software ETF +0.9% to $105.93 after three days of selling; Microsoft +1.3% to $496.79, CrowdStrike +1.7% to $245.55, Adobe flat at $250.19 under its $256.29 paid line
  5. Oil under the line a third day: Brent $103.68, −2.0%, from $105.83 — the $100 handle in the wires; gold +2.1% to $400.13 on the gold ETF, bought back after two days sold on the hike; dollar index 100.24 flat; yen 155.87 into the Bank of Japan
  6. Print record, the drift after the verdicts reverses on one side: Oracle +5.5% to $151.57, back above the $148.35 line it was sold under; Adobe flat at $250.19, still under the $256.29 line it was paid above — both next print 9 December
  7. Asia closed into the Bank of Japan: Taiex +1.0% with TSMC +1.9%, Nikkei +0.2% with SoftBank +1.0% and Tokyo Electron −2.1%, Kospi +0.2%, Hang Seng −0.9%; the Bank of England held; the BoJ decides overnight, expected to raise
  8. Our indices at Wednesday's close, the base for today's move: Rubin +1.9% on interconnect and materials, the Agentic Winners 40 −1.3%, HALO −0.3%, the Agentic Ecosystem +0.3% — today's chip and memory bid lands on Rubin's design and memory layers, today's software recovery on the Winners 40
  9. Outside view: 'U.S. Treasury Yields Fall as Fed Regains Trust, BOE Leaves Rates Unchanged' (WSJ) · 'US rate options signal market can absorb higher Treasury yields' (Reuters) · '10-year Treasury yield eases, oil falls to $100' (Yahoo Finance) · 'What the Fed rate hike means for borrowers and investors' (Darden)
  10. What decides the close: SPY $757.83, QQQ $708.69 and 704, SOXX $505, MAGS 69.5 — all above at midday, all lost by the bell yesterday; DRAM $58 the one line not yet retaken; 10-year 5.00%; Brent $107.63; then the Bank of Japan overnight and the quarterly expiry on Friday

The ten lines

  1. 1

    LEVEL Rates, the belly bought back: 10-year 4.947% (−6 bp, back under 5.00% after the first close above it), 5-year 4.797% (−6 bp), 30-year 5.296% (−5 bp) — a parallel move lower, not yesterday's flattener; WSJ: 'Treasury yields fall as Fed regains trust'; Reuters: 'rate options signal market can absorb higher yields'

    TLTSHYIEF

    Wednesday's curve sold the belly and bought the long end — the market pricing a sequence of hikes and believing it works. Thursday's curve is lower everywhere by roughly the same six basis points: the 10-year at 4.947% is back under the 5% it closed above last night for the first time this cycle, the 5-year 4.797% from 4.859%, the 30-year 5.296% from 5.349%. A parallel move lower the day after a hike is the market saying the level it reached was enough — the Journal calls it the Fed regaining trust, Reuters' desk reads the rate-options market as able to absorb higher yields. We keep 5.00% as the line and note that one session under it, at midday, is a reprieve and not a reversal of a two-month trend.

  2. 2

    BOARD ETF board, the lines retaken: SPY +1.1% to $762.12 above $757.83; QQQ +1.6% to $716.33 above $708.69; SOXX +3.2% to $518.02 above $505; MAGS $70.56 above 69.5; DRAM +4.4% to $57.63 under $58; IGV +0.9%; RSP +0.6%, DIA +0.6%, IWM +1.2%; VIX 15.7 (−11%)

    SPYQQQSOXXSMHMAGSDRAMIGVRSPDIAIWM

    Every equity line this diary carries is above its mark at midday for the first time since Monday's sort began. The S&P 500 ETF at $762.12 is $4.29 over $757.83 after two closes under it; the Nasdaq-100 fund at $716.33 is $7.64 over $708.69 and well off the 704 shelf it sat on for four sessions; the semiconductor ETF at $518.02 is $13 over $505 and 2.5% from its 50-day average near $531; the Magnificent Seven fund is a dollar over 69.5. The one line not yet retaken is $58 on the memory ETF, at $57.63 after +4.4%. Breadth is narrower than the headline: the equal-weight S&P +0.6% and the Dow +0.6% against the Nasdaq-100's +1.6% — the long-duration funds lead again, as they did at this hour on Wednesday before the close took it all back.

  3. Sector Rotation Where the money is rotating across the eleven sectors — the board behind the day’s leadership story. Open the rotation board →
  4. 3

    UP Chips, the design side wider: AMD +6.4% to $545.38, Micron +5.5% to $977.94, Broadcom +2.9% to $349.39, Nvidia +2.3% to $218.74, TSMC +2.1% to $425.93; memory ETF +4.4% to $57.63; optics pause — Lumentum −0.4% at $916, Coherent +1.2%

    AMDMUAVGONVDATSMDRAMLITECOHR

    The chip sort has a wider buy side today. AMD +6.4% to $545.38 leads for a third session, Micron +5.5% to $977.94 puts the memory economy within 37 cents of the $58 line on its ETF, Broadcom +2.9% and Nvidia +2.3% to $218.74 join, TSMC +2.1% follows Taipei's +1.0%. Wednesday's leaders sit this one out: Lumentum −0.4% after +9.6%, Coherent +1.2% after +6.9% — the wiring was bought yesterday, the design names today, which is a rotation inside a sector being bought, not a sector being sold. The equipment three we watch at each close are not in this list because the midday probe does not carry them; the close will say whether Applied Materials, Lam and KLA joined.

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C · line 11 · members

Today in line 11: why a curve that falls six basis points everywhere the day after a hike is a different sentence from Wednesday's flattener, and what it says about the level the market can absorb; why a relief that retakes every line at noon is still a position until the bell, and what yesterday's unwind taught about the difference; what Oracle back above its sold line and Adobe under its paid line say about which half of the AI trade the relief is buying; the equipment names as the missing piece at the close; and what the Bank of Japan tonight and the quarterly expiry tomorrow do to a reclaim that has not yet been held.

The privileged, actionable read — what we do, and at which level — is in line 11, for members only.

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Further reading on Closelook

Ten lines on the US midday tape, not advice — an investment diary. Published every trading day at 12:30 ET. See The Morning 10 and the Daily Pulse.