Closelook@Charts
Three Times the Charts Warned First in 2026
A divergence is when two charts that usually move together stop agreeing. In March Rubin held while the Nasdaq 100 made a new low — Rubin then gained 86% in the second quarter. In June the equal-weight chip fund failed to confirm the high. In spring software held its February low and cloud funds rose about 70%.
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Transcript
0:00 Charts often warn before prices move. Three times this year, they did.
0:04 A divergence: two charts that usually move together stop agreeing.
0:10 March: the Nasdaq 100 fell to a new low on 30 March, 6% below its 5 February level.
0:15 Our AI build-out index Rubin did not. It held 4% above its February level.
0:21 That was the tell. In the second quarter Rubin gained 86%, the Nasdaq 100 28%.
0:26 June: the big chip fund SOXX made a new high on 22 June.
0:30 The equal-weight chip fund XSD did not. It stopped just below its 3 June high.
0:34 That was the top. Since then SOXX is down 15%, XSD 19%.
0:38 Spring: software fell back to its February low in April — and held there.
0:44 From the April low, cloud funds rose about 70%, software 51%, the Nasdaq 100 23%.
0:50 Next: the divergence that is open right now.
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Research diary, not investment advice. Figures as stated in the video, to the date shown.