Closelook@AI Indices · Episode 1
The Barbell — Four Sides of the AI Trade
Four indices, one picture of the AI trade: Rubin tracks what builds it, the Agentic Ecosystem what operates it, Agentic Winners 40 who captures the value, and HALO what AI can’t touch. The builders ran furthest this year — since the June chip high the order has flipped.
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Transcript
0:00 Four indices. One thesis. The whole AI trade in one picture.
0:04 Episode 1 of a short series on how we track the AI trade.
0:10 Rubin tracks what builds the AI factory: chips, memory, power and cloud.
0:12 Agentic Ecosystem tracks what operates it: the rails that run, secure and bill AI agents.
0:15 Agentic Winners 40 tracks who captures the value.
0:17 HALO tracks what AI can’t touch: durable growth outside the AI build-out.
0:22 This year the builders ran furthest: Rubin +103%, Agentic Ecosystem +74%.
0:26 Winners 40 and HALO are still below where they started the year.
0:30 Since the chip high in June the order has flipped: Winners +30%, Ecosystem +21%, Rubin −16%.
0:37 That is the barbell: three sides of AI on one end, what AI can’t touch on the other.
0:43 Next: one index at a time, starting with Rubin.
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Research diary, not investment advice. Figures as stated in the video, to the date shown.