AI Sell-Off — What Monday Repaired

Wall Street had its best day since April on Monday, and Asia added to the rebound on Tuesday. That feels like a repair. Measured against last week's loss it is one only in part. The S&P 500 has 85% of its loss back, the Nasdaq-100 66%, the chip index 50%, our Rubin 100 build-out index 37% and Korea's Kospi 27%. Nvidia has none of it back; it fell again. Against its close on election day, 3 November, the S&P 500 is a quarter of a percent lower. The broader the market, the more is repaired. The closer to AI hardware, and above all to memory, the less.

The repair table

We compare three closes. Friday 30 October is the last close before the week in which the market sold the AI build-out. Friday 6 November is the close after it. The latest close is Monday 9 November for the US and Europe and Tuesday 10 November for Asia. The last column divides the rebound by last week's loss. A second yardstick is the close of Tuesday 3 November, the day of the US midterm election and the last close before its result.

Table as text

Market	Last week	Since Friday	vs 30 Oct	vs election day	Loss regained
Russell 2000	−2.1%	+3.1%	+1.0%	+1.0%	all
S&P 500 equal weight	−1.0%	+2.3%	+1.2%	+0.8%	all
S&P 500	−2.7%	+2.3%	−0.4%	−0.3%	85%
Nasdaq-100	−4.9%	+3.4%	−1.7%	−1.0%	66%
Taiwan TAIEX	−12.2%	+7.6%	−5.5%	−1.4%	55%
Nikkei 225	−9.3%	+5.3%	−4.5%	−4.2%	52%
Chip index (SOX)	−12.1%	+6.9%	−6.1%	−5.3%	50%
Software fund (IGV)	−5.2%	+2.6%	−2.7%	−1.2%	48%
Tech sector (XLK)	−8.2%	+3.7%	−4.8%	−3.2%	42%
Rubin 100	−13.2%	+5.6%	−8.4%	−8.5%	37%
Agentic Ecosystem	−10.5%	+3.9%	−7.0%	−2.8%	33%
Kospi	−11.7%	+3.5%	−8.6%	−7.3%	27%
Nvidia	−8.8%	−4.3%	−12.7%	−13.6%	none

Prices: Yahoo Finance, FMP and the Closelooknet index workers. Closes of 30 October, 6 November and 9 November; Taiwan, Japan and Korea through Tuesday 10 November. Local currencies; Rubin 100 and Agentic Ecosystem Index at equal weight. Election day: close of 3 November; Japan was closed that day, so the Nikkei is measured from 2 November.

The table sorts itself into three groups. The first is whole again: small caps, the equal-weight S&P 500 and the Dow all closed Monday above their level of 30 October, and the S&P 500 itself is 0.4% short. The second group has about half back: the Nasdaq-100, chips, software, Taiwan and Japan. The third has a third or less: our two indices of the AI build-out and its operating layer, Korea, and Nvidia, which stands 12.7% below its close of 30 October.

The election gives a second reading. The S&P 500 closed election day at 7,568.92 and Monday at 7,549.94, a quarter of a percent lower. It even rose 1.6% the day after the vote. The fall came on Thursday 5 November, 4.4% in one day; Friday and Monday took back 59% of that, which leaves the index just under its election-day close. Small caps stand 1.0% above their election-day close and the Nasdaq-100 1.0% below. For the broad market the election is priced out. For AI hardware it is not: the chip index is 5.3% below its election-day close, Rubin 100 8.5%, Korea 7.3% and Nvidia 13.6%.

One number says the fear went faster than the losses. The VIX, Wall Street's fear gauge, closed at 19.42 on 30 October, rose to 25.64 by Friday and fell back to 19.92 on Monday. Options are priced almost as if last week had not happened. The chip index is still 6.1% lower.