30-Year Yield Hits 2004 High, Nasdaq Ends Flat
Rates — the 30-year hits its highest since 2004; Oracle and Arm sold, Meta and Intel bought, Nasdaq ends flat
The 30-year Treasury yield touched 5.50% and the 10-year 5.22% before both eased into the close. Stocks sat through it: the Nasdaq recovered a 0.74% midday loss to finish flat, as Meta and the chipmakers selling processors rose while Oracle's data-center notice pulled Arm down 7.9%. Tokyo's chip-equipment makers extended their gains this morning; Hong Kong fell to a two-month low.
In this edition
The Morning 10 Fri, Sep 25, 2026 ~90 seconds 08:00 CET
The ten points
The 30-year Treasury yield touched 5.501% on Thursday, the highest since June 2004, and the 10-year reached 5.223%, the highest since June 2007. Both eased into the close, at 5.461% and 5.162%. Jobless claims fell to 197,000, below the 201,000 expected - another sign of an economy that does not need lower rates.
Stocks absorbed it. The Nasdaq Composite was down 0.74% at midday and closed flat at 26,939.37. Underneath, the market picked sides: Meta rose 4.50%, Intel 3.91% and AMD 2.38%, while Oracle fell 3.47% after a force majeure notice on its New Mexico data-center campus, and Arm fell 7.88%.
Overnight, Tokyo rose 1.3% with Tokyo Electron up 4.6%, the yen firmed to 158.18, and Hong Kong fell 1.4% to a two-month low after a Trump-Xi meeting that produced warm words and two pandas but few concrete results. Costco beat on earnings; its shares barely moved after hours.
- The 30-year touched 5.501%, the highest since June 2004, and closed at 5.461%; the 10-year touched 5.223%, the highest since June 2007, and closed at 5.162%; the 5-year closed above 5% at 5.025%; TLT -1.29%
- Stocks sat through it: Nasdaq Composite 26,939.37 (+0.01%) after -0.74% at midday, S&P 500 7,704.13 (-0.02%), Dow 51,349.98 (-0.31%), Russell 2000 2,835.57 (-0.11%); equal-weight RSP -0.50%
- Oracle's notice on Project Jupiter spread: Oracle $139.54 (-3.47%), Blue Owl $9.25 (-3.65%), Arm $306.34 (-7.88%); in the Rubin index, DC power -1.85% and AI factory systems -1.58%
- Meta $777.59 (+4.50%) the day after Connect; the processor makers rose with it - Intel $127.39 (+3.91%), AMD $629.26 (+2.38%); Alphabet +1.34%
- Chips split, software sold: SOXX $566.07 (+0.06%); SanDisk $1,753.62 (-3.47%), memory fund DRAM -1.91%, Broadcom -1.30%, Nvidia -0.41%; Micron $1,080.53 (+0.81%); IGV -0.88%, Microsoft -0.53%, cyber fund CIBR -0.79% after its record
- Oil rose again: Brent fund BNO +2.45%, WTI fund USO +2.86%; Brent touched $108.23 after Houthi missiles at Saudi Arabia, then eased on a report of talks on a phased reopening of the Strait of Hormuz
- Costco beat and barely moved: net sales $93.9bn (+11.2%), EPS $6.75 against $6.55 expected, comparable sales +9.4% (+6.7% without gas and currencies); closed $896.48 (-0.91%) before the report, $898.80 (+0.26%) after hours
- Tokyo extended its gains: Nikkei 225 66,356.13 (+1.29%) at 05:52 UTC; Tokyo Electron +4.56%, Advantest +2.48%, Kioxia +2.02%; SoftBank -2.68%; the yen firmer at 158.18 per dollar
- Trump and Xi met for about 90 minutes - 'a great meeting', two pandas, few concrete results; Hong Kong's Hang Seng 24,409.45 (-1.42%) at 05:52 UTC, a two-month low, tech shares weakest
- US stock futures slightly higher - Nasdaq 100 +0.26%, S&P 500 +0.05% at 05:52 UTC; bitcoin 84,242; today durable goods (12:30 UTC) and final Michigan sentiment (14:00 UTC); inflation data (PCE) and Micron next Wednesday
-
The 30-year touched 5.501%, the highest since June 2004, and closed at 5.461%; the 10-year touched 5.223%, the highest since June 2007, and closed at 5.162%; the 5-year closed above 5% at 5.025%; TLT -1.29%
ContextTLTLQDIEF
- What
- The selling in bonds that began on Wednesday continued for a second day. The 30-year yield rose to 5.501% during the session - a level last seen in June 2004 - before closing at 5.461%, up from 5.401%. The 10-year touched 5.223% and closed at 5.162%, up from 5.114%. The 5-year closed at 5.025%, above 5%, after touching that level for the first time since 2007 on Wednesday. The long-bond fund TLT fell 1.29% and the investment-grade corporate bond fund LQD 0.71%. Weekly jobless claims fell to 197,000 against 201,000 expected.
- If
- The 30-year closes above 5.50% rather than just touching it.
- Why
- The 30-year is the rate investors demand to lend to the US government for a generation. When it rises this fast on good economic news, the market is asking to be paid for inflation and for the amount of debt it has to absorb - not pricing a recession.
- Then
- Two days of selling have taken the curve to levels last seen before the financial crisis. The durable goods report at 12:30 UTC today is the next test.
-
Stocks sat through it: Nasdaq Composite 26,939.37 (+0.01%) after -0.74% at midday, S&P 500 7,704.13 (-0.02%), Dow 51,349.98 (-0.31%), Russell 2000 2,835.57 (-0.11%); equal-weight RSP -0.50%
StructureQQQSPYDIAIWMRSP
- What
- At midday the Composite was down 0.74%; by the close it had recovered the whole loss and finished 3 points higher. The S&P 500 ended 0.02% lower, the Dow 0.31% lower and the Russell 2000 0.11% lower - a much calmer day for small companies than Wednesday's 1.77% drop. The equal-weight S&P fund RSP fell 0.50%, more than the cap-weighted index: the recovery was carried by a handful of large names. The VIX rose 3.2% to 15.67.
- If
- The Composite closes lower on a day when yields fall.
- Why
- A market that finishes flat on a day the 30-year reaches a 22-year high is telling you buyers are still there. A narrow recovery, carried by the largest names, is a weaker version of that message than a broad one.
- Then
- Friday closes the week. The weekly change, not Thursday's flat close, is the cleaner read on what two days of rising yields cost.
- Agentic Winners 40 Forty names positioned to win the agentic transition — tracked as a live index, daily. Open AW40 →
-
Oracle's notice on Project Jupiter spread: Oracle $139.54 (-3.47%), Blue Owl $9.25 (-3.65%), Arm $306.34 (-7.88%); in the Rubin index, DC power -1.85% and AI factory systems -1.58%
StructureORCLOWLARM
- What
- Oracle sent a force majeure notice to the developer of Project Jupiter, a New Mexico data-center campus planned at up to $165 billion and built by a Blue Owl unit. The notice protects Oracle from extra costs if the campus does not come online as expected in 2028. Oracle said the project 'remains on our planned schedule'; Blue Owl said the notice 'does not change the financial commitments'. Oracle closed 3.47% lower and Blue Owl 3.65% lower. Arm fell 7.88% to $306.34, trading between $303.65 and $326.00; reports also cited a sale of 10,400 shares by its finance chief at $300 on 21 September. Inside the Rubin index, the data-center power group fell 1.85% and AI factory systems 1.58%.
- If
- A second large data-center customer uses the same kind of clause.
- Why
- A force majeure notice is a legal shield, not a cancellation. But it is the first time one of the largest buyers of AI data centers has formally prepared for a delay - and the builders and suppliers were priced on those campuses arriving on time.
- Then
- Watch Oracle's bonds as closely as its shares. In Thursday's Midday 10, Oracle was already the only name in the second tier of our credit stress board.
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