10-Year Closes at 5.11%, Tokyo Reopens Higher
Rates — the 10-year closes at 5.11% and the 5-year hits 5%; Tokyo reopens higher, chip-equipment makers lead
The 5-year touched 5% for the first time since 2007 as a hot survey, a hawkish Fed governor and rising oil drove yields up; the Nasdaq fell 1.13% and chips led the decline while software held. Tokyo's first session since the Bank of Japan's increase opened 1.1% higher with the yen still weak, the US-China truce was extended to 10 January, and Meta named Walmart and Best Buy as partners for its shopping agent.
In this edition
The Morning 10 Thu, Sep 24, 2026 ~90 seconds 08:00 CET
The ten points
The ten-year Treasury yield closed on Wednesday at 5.114%, up nearly fifteen basis points in one session. The five-year touched 5% for the first time since 2007. A survey showing the fastest US growth in more than five years, a Fed governor saying more rate increases are likely, and oil rising again did it.
Stocks sorted themselves by how much of their value lies in the future. The Nasdaq fell 1.13% and the Russell 2000 1.77%; chips fell hardest, with the memory basket down 2.70% and SanDisk 3.73%. Software held up, and the cybersecurity fund made a record close.
Overnight, Tokyo reopened after three days of holidays - its first session since the Bank of Japan's rate increase - and traded 1.1% higher, led by chip-equipment makers, with the yen still weak at 158. The US and China extended their trade truce to 10 January as Xi Jinping arrived in Washington. And Meta named Walmart, Best Buy and others as shopping partners for its Muse agent; Amazon blocked it.
- The ten-year closed at 5.114%, up nearly 15 basis points; the five-year touched 5% for the first time since 2007 and closed at 4.997%; the thirty-year 5.40%; the long-bond fund TLT -1.58%
- The rate day held to the close: Nasdaq Composite 26,936.04 (-1.13%), S&P 500 7,706.03 (-0.75%), Dow 51,511.59 (-0.68%), Russell 2000 (-1.77%) the weakest
- Chips sold as duration, software held: SOXX -1.23%, memory basket -2.70%, SanDisk $1,816.57 (-3.73%), Micron -2.22%, Broadcom -2.62%; against IGV +1.26%, ServiceNow +2.76%, Salesforce +1.84%, and the cyber fund CIBR a record close at $104.01
- Meta's Connect named Muse's shopping partners - Walmart, Best Buy, Gap, Sephora, Wayfair, after Instacart on Monday - and Amazon has blocked the agent; new glasses, a headset and a Muse Charm pendant; Meta closed $744.10 (+1.02%) before the keynote
- Tokyo reopened higher after three days of holidays: Nikkei 225 65,737.89 (+1.11%) at 06:10 UTC against its 18 September close; Advantest +3.65%, Tokyo Electron +2.03%, SoftBank +1.55%; Toyota -1.52%, MUFG -0.94%
- The yen is still weak after the Bank of Japan's increase: 158.18 per dollar this morning, after closing Wednesday at 158.33; the dollar fund UUP +0.60% on Wednesday
- The US-China trade truce was extended by two months, to 10 January, as Xi Jinping arrived in Washington; the leaders meet at the White House today; Hong Kong -0.50%, Shanghai -0.99%
- Taipei -0.28% with TSMC -1.0% to NT$2,475; Seoul closed for Chuseok today and Friday - the Korea fund EWY fell 3.62% in New York on Wednesday; Sydney -0.74%
- Oil kept rising: the Brent fund BNO +4.23% and the WTI fund USO +3.30% on Wednesday; energy stocks XLE +1.00%; bitcoin $84,153 this morning, gold fund GLD -1.80% and silver fund SLV -4.23% on Wednesday
- US stock futures lower - S&P -0.41% to 7,740.75, Nasdaq -0.56% at 06:10 UTC; today Trump-Xi at the White House, Costco and BlackBerry results; Seoul shut, Taipei shut Friday; chart pick scores Friday; Cintas print record Monday; Micron 30 September
-
The ten-year closed at 5.114%, up nearly 15 basis points; the five-year touched 5% for the first time since 2007 and closed at 4.997%; the thirty-year 5.40%; the long-bond fund TLT -1.58%
ContextTLTSPYIWM
- What
- Treasury yields finished Wednesday at the highs of the day. The ten-year closed at 5.114% against 4.968% on Tuesday. The five-year touched 5% during the session - the first time since 2007 - and closed at 4.997%. The thirty-year closed at 5.40%, and the long-bond fund TLT fell 1.58%. Three things drove it: the flash purchasing managers' survey at 58.4, the fastest US output growth in more than five years; Fed Governor Michael Barr saying further rate increases are likely needed; and oil rising again, with the Brent fund BNO up 4.23%.
- If
- The ten-year closes back below 5% before the next US inflation data.
- Why
- The five-year reflects where the market expects the Fed to be over the next few years. A 5% five-year means investors now price the Fed staying tight - or tightening further - for longer than they did a week ago.
- Then
- Every other market today is priced against this number. Watch whether the ten-year holds above 5.1% into the US session.
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The rate day held to the close: Nasdaq Composite 26,936.04 (-1.13%), S&P 500 7,706.03 (-0.75%), Dow 51,511.59 (-0.68%), Russell 2000 (-1.77%) the weakest
StructureQQQSPYDIAIWMRSP
- What
- The declines widened after midday. The Composite closed 1.13% lower, ending a run of two record closes, and the S&P 500 fell 0.75%. The Russell 2000, full of smaller companies that borrow at floating rates, fell 1.77% - the worst of the major indices. The equal-weight S&P fell 0.70%, about the same as the cap-weighted index. The VIX rose 6.8% to 15.18, still a low reading. Investors sold stocks without rushing to buy protection.
- If
- The Russell 2000 falls another 2% while the ten-year stays above 5%.
- Why
- When the smallest companies lead a decline on a day of strong economic data, the market is saying it cares more about the cost of borrowing than about the growth that raised it.
- Then
- The Russell is the index to watch today - it is the one most exposed to the rate the bond market is now charging.
- The Print Record Beat histories against how the stock actually traded — one earnings name per day, all season. Open the Print Record →
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Chips sold as duration, software held: SOXX -1.23%, memory basket -2.70%, SanDisk $1,816.57 (-3.73%), Micron -2.22%, Broadcom -2.62%; against IGV +1.26%, ServiceNow +2.76%, Salesforce +1.84%, and the cyber fund CIBR a record close at $104.01
StructureSOXXDRAMSNDKMUAVGOIGVNOWCRMCIBR
- What
- The ranking of Tuesday reversed. The memory names that led on Tuesday led the decline on Wednesday: SanDisk fell 3.73%, Micron 2.22%, the memory basket 2.70%. Broadcom fell 2.62% and Nvidia 1.47%. AMD closed at $614.61, just above the $612.57 that makes it a trillion-dollar company. Software went the other way. IGV rose 1.26%, ServiceNow 2.76%, Salesforce 1.84%, Adobe 1.02%, Microsoft 0.52%. The cybersecurity fund CIBR closed at $104.01, a record. Intuit, down 1.90%, was the exception.
- If
- Semiconductors fall again on a day when yields ease.
- Why
- A higher discount rate hits hardest the stocks whose value lies furthest in the future. Chips carry years of expected AI demand in their prices; software, already cheaper, has less to lose.
- Then
- Micron reports on 30 September. That is where the chip trade gets tested on demand rather than on the price of money.
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