—
C+
C+ The full Closelook — membership. Open the C+ overview

Midday: Stocks Bounce, Oil Under $100, Oracle Fades

Stocks snap a four-day losing streak as oil slips under $100 and chips bounce 2% — despite core inflation hotter than hoped and Fed hike odds at 82%; Oracle gives back its entire after-hours jump

The S&P 500 is up 1.0% at midday, the Dow 1.0%, the Nasdaq 100 1.2%, the Russell 2000 0.6%, on course for the first gain in five sessions — and the reason is not the inflation data. August consumer prices rose 0.4% on the month and 3.4% on the year, in line, but core rose 0.3% against 0.2% expected, gasoline was more than a third of the increase, and futures now price a quarter-point Fed hike next Wednesday at about 82%. The market rallied anyway because the two prices that drove four down days reversed: West Texas crude is back under $100 at $99.72, Brent $105.13, and the 30-year yield has slipped to 5.34% while the 10-year holds at 4.94%. The semiconductor ETF is up 2.4% — Marvell +4.7%, Intel +2.9%, Arm +2.6%, AMD +2.1% — while the memory and storage names that led the week are still down: SanDisk −3.4%, Western Digital −2.4%. Oracle, +4% after hours on a beat on every line, is now −0.3% at $152.43, below its $152.94 entry; Adobe is flat at $248.89. Energy stocks are up 0.4% with oil down 2.7%, the second straight day the sector and the barrel have moved in opposite directions. Michigan consumer sentiment fell to 47.8 against 51.0 expected, with one-year inflation expectations jumping to 4.6% from 4.0%. Asia closed lower — Kospi 6,910, Nikkei −1.9% — and Europe higher, Stoxx 600 +0.5%.

In this edition

SPY QQQ DIA IWM RSP SOXX SMH XLK

The Midday 10 Fri, Sep 11, 2026 ~60 seconds 12:00 ET

We set four numbers for Friday this morning and by 12:10 New York three of them have answered, and the answers do not all point the same way. The consumer-price print came in hot where it mattered — core 0.3% against 0.2% — and the market went up anyway: the S&P 500 ETF is at $765.84, up 1.0%, the Nasdaq 100 up 1.2%, the Dow up 1.0%, the equal-weight S&P up 0.8%, the VIX down 12% to 15.8. That is what a market does when it has already sold what it was afraid of: the data confirmed the fear and the positions had already been reduced, so the same names were bought back in roughly the order they had been sold. The semiconductor ETF is up 2.4%, on the same side as the index for a second day but this time upward, which was the reading we called ‘position-trimming into the data’ rather than a change of view. Oil did the rest: West Texas crude is under $100 at $99.72, Brent at $105.13, both down more than 2%, with nothing resolved in the Gulf. Two things did not come back, and they are the ten lines that matter. The memory and storage names that carried the week — SanDisk, Western Digital, Micron — are still lower on a day the rest of the chip group is up 2% to 5%. And Oracle, the first large software beat this season to be paid overnight, has been sold from $159.58 to $152.43, below the close it entered from. Ten lines, then the eleventh.

US midday, intraday quotes (delayed, ~12:10 ET)

  1. ETF board: first up day in five — SPY +1.0%, QQQ +1.2%, DIA +1.0%, IWM +0.6%, equal-weight +0.8%; chips lead, SOXX +2.4%, SMH +2.1%, tech +1.6%, industrials +1.1%; software +0.2%, energy +0.4% with oil −2.7%; VIX −12% to 15.8
  2. CPI: headline 0.4% and 3.4% in line, core 0.3% against 0.2% expected, gasoline +3.9% on the month and more than a third of the increase — Fed hike odds for Wednesday jump to about 82%; the market rallies anyway
  3. Oracle gives it all back: $159.58 after hours, $152.43 at midday, −0.3% and below the $152.94 entry after a beat on every line; Adobe flat at $248.89 on its entry — both windows score Tuesday
  4. Chips bought back in the order they were sold: Marvell +4.7%, Intel +2.9%, Arm +2.6%, AMD +2.1%, Astera +1.8%, Broadcom +1.3%, Lam +1.2%, Nvidia +0.7% — while SanDisk −3.4%, Western Digital −2.4% and Micron −0.1% do not come back
  5. Oil: WTI back under $100 at $99.72, −2.7%, Brent $105.13, −2.3%, with nothing resolved in the Gulf — energy stocks rise anyway, XLE +0.4%, Exxon +0.3%, Chevron +0.5%; airlines bounce, United +3.5%, Royal Caribbean +1.0%
  6. Bonds: the curve flattens — 3-month 3.90% (+5 bp) and 5-year 4.76% (+3 bp) up on the hike, 10-year 4.944% unchanged, 30-year 5.335% (−3 bp) down; TLT +0.3% at $81.03, IEF flat; gold $4,409, GLD +1.1%, silver +1.3%, bitcoin $77,900, dollar 99.1
  7. The large names and the average stock both participate: Apple +2.4% at $334 a day before iPhone 18 Pro pre-orders, Meta +1.3%, Broadcom +1.3%, CoreWeave +1.9%, equal-weight S&P +0.8% — Cloudflare −1.2% the software exception
  8. Asia closed on Thursday’s New York tape and paid for it: Kospi 6,910, −1.8%, below 7,000 for the first time in a week; Nikkei 64,011, −1.9%; Taiwan −1.6%; Hong Kong −0.6%; Advantest −6.5%, Kioxia −7%, Samsung −3.3% — Europe rose into the US open, Stoxx 600 +0.5%, DAX +0.8%
  9. Michigan sentiment 47.8 against 51.0 expected, the weakest since May’s record low; expectations 45.8 from 51.5; one-year inflation expectations 4.6% from 4.0%, five-year 3.4% — the consumer says stagflation, the market buys discretionary +0.9%
  10. What decides the close: SPY above $757.83 for a first up close in five, SOXX and the S&P same sign up, WTI settling under $100, Oracle against $152.94 and $157.53, the 10-year at 4.94% — into a weekend before the Fed

The ten lines

  1. 1

    BOARD ETF board: first up day in five — SPY +1.0%, QQQ +1.2%, DIA +1.0%, IWM +0.6%, equal-weight +0.8%; chips lead, SOXX +2.4%, SMH +2.1%, tech +1.6%, industrials +1.1%; software +0.2%, energy +0.4% with oil −2.7%; VIX −12% to 15.8

    SPYQQQDIAIWMRSPSOXXSMHXLKXLIIGVXLE

    The board is green for the first time since last Thursday and the order has flipped from yesterday: the iShares semiconductor ETF is up 2.4% at $529.72, the VanEck fund 2.1%, the technology sector fund 1.6%, industrials 1.1%, consumer discretionary 0.9%, financials 0.5%, staples 0.4%; only health care is lower, −0.1%. The S&P 500 ETF is at $765.84, up 1.0% and back above its 50-day average, the Nasdaq 100 fund at $716.88, the Dow fund at $526.09, the Russell 2000 fund at $289.54, the equal-weight S&P at $214.89. The software ETF is up 0.2% at $101.57 — green, but barely, and for the first time this week not the group anyone is buying. The energy fund is up 0.4% at $65.13 with the oil fund down 2.7%: the second consecutive day the sector and the barrel have opposite signs, in the other direction from yesterday. The VIX has fallen 12% to 15.8, which is the size of move it makes when an event passes, not when a view changes.

  2. 2

    THREAD CPI: headline 0.4% and 3.4% in line, core 0.3% against 0.2% expected, gasoline +3.9% on the month and more than a third of the increase — Fed hike odds for Wednesday jump to about 82%; the market rallies anyway

    TLTIEFSHYUUP

    The August consumer price index rose 0.4% from July and 3.4% from a year earlier, both matching the consensus. The core measure, without food and energy, rose 0.3% against 0.2% expected and 2.4% on the year, in line. Gasoline rose 3.9% in the month and 27.4% on the year and accounted for more than a third of the headline increase — the pass-through we described in yesterday’s Pulse, arriving on schedule. The bond market read it as we said it would: futures now price a quarter-point increase at Wednesday’s Federal Reserve meeting at about 82%, up from roughly 70% on Thursday, with the fed funds range at 3.50–3.75% where it has sat all year. What the bond market did not do is sell the long end: the 10-year is unchanged at 4.944%, the 30-year down to 5.335%. The equity market read the same number as ‘priced’ — and with oil down 2% at the same moment, bought. That is not a contradiction; the two markets are pricing different horizons, which is the subject of line 11.

  3. Sector Rotation Where the money is rotating across the eleven sectors — the board behind the day’s leadership story. Open the rotation board →
  4. 3

    THREAD Oracle gives it all back: $159.58 after hours, $152.43 at midday, −0.3% and below the $152.94 entry after a beat on every line; Adobe flat at $248.89 on its entry — both windows score Tuesday

    ORCLADBE

    Oracle opened higher — up between 2% and 5% in the first minutes, with the after-hours prints as high as 7% — and has been sold all morning to $152.43, down 0.3% on the day and fifty cents below the $152.94 close it entered the print from. The numbers were not the problem: revenue $19.3 billion against $19.14 billion, earnings $1.92 against $1.74, cloud infrastructure up 121%, backlog $664 billion against $631 billion expected, the full-year floor raised to $90 billion. The concern that has followed the stock since June — capital spending of $70 billion net this fiscal year against negative free cash flow and rising debt — has reasserted itself within four hours of the open. The paid line at $157.53 was reached after hours and has not been seen in regular trading. Adobe is at $248.89, six cents above its $248.83 entry, after a beat and a raised year that the after-hours market sold 2%; the buyers came back to the entry and stopped. Both windows score at Tuesday’s close: Oracle paid above $157.53, sold under $148.35; Adobe paid above $256.29, sold under $241.37. This morning we wrote that a paid Oracle would give software a floor; at midday the floor is not there.

C — free account

The free C account unlocks lines 4 through 10 — the full midday tape.

One tap with Google or one email — no password, no card. You are signed in until you sign out, on this browser, from then on.

Join the Look — free

Already joined on this browser? The full edition shows automatically — if it doesn't, sign in again here. Looking for the archive, portfolios and realtime? That is C+.

C · line 11 · members

Today in line 11: why a market can rally on a core inflation print that raises Fed hike odds to 82% — and why that confirms the de-grossing read rather than contradicting it; the two things that did not come back when everything else did, and what each says; why energy rising on a falling barrel closes the argument this morning’s Pulse opened; what a bear-flattening curve and a 47.8 sentiment print have in common; and the numbers into a weekend before the Fed.

The privileged, actionable read — what we do, and at which level — is in line 11, for members only.

Join the Look — it’s free

Free members account · one click · the ten points stay free, always.

Further reading on Closelook

Ten lines on the US midday tape, not advice — an investment diary. Published every trading day at 12:30 ET. See The Morning 10 and the Daily Pulse.